The playoffs will begin tomorrow. Here are my brief breakdowns of each series.
Here is some pertinent information on the Eastern Conference.
Here are the possession numbers for the last 20 games leading into the playoffs. The reason for using that sample is that it takes the temperature on how each team is playing heading into the playoffs and if certain teams have had significant injury(s) this will help in giving more accurate assessment than a full year mark.
Here is the goaltending. I am using 5v5 adjusted save percentage which weighs shots differently from high danger, medium danger, and low danger areas.
You'll see that the goalies in the Eastern Conference are sandwiched together for the most part.
On to the individual playoff series.
1. Washington vs. 4. Philadelphia
There are a lot of statistical models that actually have Philadelphia as a mild favorite in this series. I know that may be surprising to some people but the Flyers have played great hockey down the stretch and also have one of the best goaltenders in the league. Yes, Steve Mason's body of work the past few years has been tremendous. I had concerns about Washington heading into the playoffs because their ability to drive play at even-strength was average at best. Those concerns aren't as great anymore. Washington has vastly improved that side of things in the last 20 games or so. They are the second best team in the Eastern Conference right now.
Holtby is also a very good goalie even if he is the eighth ranked player among 5v5 adjusted save percentage and should provide the Capitals with at least league average play in net. Also throw in the fact that Washington has more potent offensive weapons I have to choose the Capitals in this series.
2. Pittsburgh vs. 3. New York Rangers
If you want a more in-depth breakdown of this series I wrote one yesterday that you can find here. This series is pretty straight forward. Can Henrik Lundqvist go into God mode? If he can't I don't see how the Rangers can compete. If he does then things get interesting. I believe that Pittsburgh will control the shot volume in this series and even if Lundqvist does stand on his head the volume may be too much to overcome.
Most people have Pittsburgh as a heavy favorite here. Some even have them as the most favored team in the first round
Post-season probabilities after the regular season, with matchups and home-ice advantage now set. pic.twitter.com/nJl6AP00YH
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 11, 2016
I am picking the Penguins.
Here is the Atlantic Division side of things which is considerably easier. In fact I would argue there is no easier path to the Conference Finals than what these four teams have. Washington has to be wondering what their reward was for being the President's Trophy winners.
1. Florida vs. 4. New York Islanders
Both of these teams have not won a playoff series since the mid 90's. Both of these teams haven't won a playoff series since beating a Jaromir Jagr led team (FLA vs PIT 1996 and PIT vs NYI 1993). Will that trend continue? I don't believe it will. The Islanders ability at even-strength is second worst among Eastern Conference teams and the Panthers should have the edge in goal with Roberto Luongo.
#JagrBombs4life I am picking the Panthers
2. Tampa Bay vs. 3. Detroit
What a difference a year makes. Tampa Bay would normally be the comfortable favorite in this matchup but they've lost two really key components to their success. Steven Stamkos was lost to a blood clot and Anton Stralman was lost to a fractured fibula. Detroit heads into this playoff year knowing that Pavel Datsyuk is going to be done when the Red Wings are done. These teams are entering the playoffs with similar possession metrics and this is one of the more evenly matched series due to Tampa's injuries.
I believe that Steven Stamkos has played his last game for the Tampa Bay Lightning and that Pavel Datsyuk will get at least one more round with the Red Wings. I am taking Detroit in a coin flip.
Let's move on to the Western Confernce. This conference is an absolute buzzsaw.
Four of the five best possession teams in the last 20 games hail from the Western Conference. Only Minnesota is a complete dog on this front.
Here is some background info on the goaltending
There is more of a gap in this position out West than there was in East.
1. Dallas vs. 4. Minnesota
Unlike the Washington Capitals the Dallas Stars have been rewarded for having the best record in their conference. The Minnesota Wild are by far and away the worst team in this conference at driving play and definitely have the lowest odds of making a dent in the postseason this year. This was very fortunate for the Stars as Tyler Seguin will be seeing his first game action since his Achilles' injury. Dallas just needs to stay true to who they are (high event hockey) and they should be able to glide through round one. The one thing that can hold the Stars back is their goaltending which is second worst in the playoffs.
All said the Stars should be awaiting the winner of the Chicago/St. Louis series.
2. St. Louis vs. 3. Chicago
This is a heavy hitting first round matchup. The defending champs are known for "flipping the switch" when the playoffs roll around and they are definitely going to have to. Only four out of the 16 teams have a lower Score-Adjusted Fenwick heading into the playoffs. The Blackhawks will also be without Duncan Keith for Game One because of his suspension. On the flip side the Blues are the third best team in the league at 55.9%. The Blues haven't gone with Brian Elliott in the playoffs as their #1 guy since 2013 but it is hard to ignore that gaudy save percentage he has put up. I think both teams are very good and it is a little bit unfair that one has to depart so early in the postseason.
I am going to take the team that is playing better heading into the playoffs and that means we will have a new champion this year.
I pick the Blues to move on.
1. Anaheim vs. 4. Nashville
The Anaheim Ducks were left for dead at the beginning of the year when they were losing games left and right. Their underlying possession numbers were good at the time. Their shooting percentage was the worst in the league and was holding them back. Bruce Boudreau altered his approach to focus more on defense as a result of the bad offense and Anaheim finished as a top five CA/60 team. Anaheim also leads the NHL in both power play and penalty kill. Nashville is underrated on the possession front and they have some nice offensive options with Filip Forsber, James Neal, and Ryan Johansen in their top six but there is one area where they fall behind everybody in the playoffs and that is goaltending. Pekka Rinne has been atrocious this year and if his .913 adjusted save percentage holds true the Predators are going to be hard pressed to move on.
I think goaltending will be the difference here and I am picking the Ducks to move on to the second round.
2. Los Angeles vs. 3. San Jose
Another year of Los Angeles and San Jose in round one and another year where an excellent team is going to depart the playoffs early. The last series famously saw Los Angeles overcome a 0-3 series deficit which paved the way to a Stanley Cup Championship. These are two of the best possession teams in hockey, but the Kings are that much better than everybody else on this front. Not even Rob Scuderi can slow down the possession train that is LA. As always LA suffers from below average shooting percentage but everything else is so good that it makes it tough to beat.
I can definitely see the Sharks putting together a stretch of play that beats LA but I have the Los Angeles Kings winning this series and I also have them reaching the Stanley Cup Final.
That's the way I see things shaking out in round one around the NHL.
Thanks for reading!