Speaking to reporters via conference call yesterday from the NHL Scouting Combine in Buffalo, Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor said that the team will follow its traditional approach of seeking the best available player in the first round of the NHL Draft rather than specifically seeking to fill a positional need in the organization.
The 2015 NHL Draft is a talent-rich class even beyond the likes of projected superstars Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, who are locks to go the Edmonton Oilers and Buffalo Sabres with the first two picks. Scouts have said there are as many as a dozen to 15 prospects who would be strong candidates for being top-five picks in an "average" draft year. This year's draft has even been compared to the likes of the 2003, 1988, 1990 and 1991 crops.
A year ago at this time, the Flyers were not in good shape to be in position to select many of the top draft-eligible players in the 2015 Draft. They had their own first-round pick but no second-round or third-round picks. At the time, Philly held only what will turn out to be the seventh overall (first round) and 98th overall (fourth round) selections.
Now, after a series of moves by general manager Ron Hextall, the Flyers hold four picks in the top 70 and seven in the top 99. They will pick twice in the first round and own at least one selection in every round.
"It's something that Ron's spent a lot of time with, accumulating assets, and it's a good year to have a lot of picks because the draft's as deep as it is," Pryor said. "We're excited. Hopefully it'll enable us to fill some areas that we need to get a little bit more of, and there's some quality guys out there that we're hoping are still available when we pick."
The Class of 2015 is one of the more forward-heavy crops at the top in recent years. However, there are at least three defensemen -- Noah Hanafin, Ivan Provorov and Zach Werenski being the most highly-touted names -- who could easily fall within the top 10 to 12 picks. If there is a run of five or six forwards taken before the Flyers' first pick comes up at seventh overall, they may very well have a defenseman atop their "best available player" list.
"I think it’s fair to say it probably favors the forwards," Pryor said of where the bulk of the project first-round depth lies. "That’s nothing against the defensemen. There’s a group of defensemen there that we really like, but it speaks volumes for the group we’re talking about. It’s a pretty talented group, and there’s a lot of really good forwards in that group, as there are a few defensemen. But I would say it probably leans more towards the forward standpoint at this point in time."
The Flyers and all teams go by internal rankings created among their scouting staff, and each team's ratings typically vary widely after the top few players. They do not weigh Central Scouting ratings or those of International Scouting Services and other bureaus, much less those of pundits. However, the gradations of talent are usually subtle ones even if the ranking spots vary widely.
Pryor emphasized this point during his conference call: There are many players -- going well beyond whomever the Flyers have in their top seven before names get crossed off as the teams drafting ahead of them make selections -- with high-level talent upsides. In this year in particular, there could be several players with first-round or early second-round talent levels who could get pushed down to being taken a little later than a comparable talent would be in other years.
Nothing can be read into Pryor's comments when asked for his take on various individual prospects (Provorov, Mikko Rantanen and Lawson Crouse specifically). He was careful not to tip his hand even subtly about whom the Flyers' scouts may regard a little more highly than someone else. His comments were uniformly positive, emphasizing what he sees as each player's strengths.
As tough as it is to project whom the Flyers will take with the 7th overall pick, it is virtually impossible to handicap who may be available with the 29th/30th selection (pending the outcome of the Stanley Cup Final) obtained in the Braydon Coburn trade. There very easily could be "surprise drops" among players considered potential top 10 to 15 picks and could also be less heralded names whom the Flyers have ranked highly on their internal list.
Once a player starts to drop on Draft day, all bets are off on how many teams bypass him until his name is called. All it takes is for one available player's name to be higher on a club's given list, and the prospect drops another notch. However, Draft Day is just a starting point for a player. Inevitably, if every Draft could be done in hindsight -- even one or two years later, much less in long-term retrospect -- the order of picks would change dramatically.
Every team hopes to develop a future NHL star or two from its draft crop, but depth is every bit as important. If as many of the Flyers' 2015 draftees develop as rapidly over the next year as the 2014 draftees have done to this point, the Flyers will be on track to do very well for themselves down the line.
The early indications on the Flyers' draft crop from a year ago are positive. All six of the Flyers picks -- four of whom already are under NHL entry-level contracts, and the other two are on a development track suggesting they, too, will be signed -- made solid progress over the past year.
As noted in a previous blog, Pryor readily acknowledges that the Flyers have a particular need to improve their system depth in goal: Phantoms goaltender Anthony Stolarz and Harvard goalie Merrick Madsen (who appeared in only one game as a freshman in 2014-15) are the only prospect-aged goalies to whom the Flyers hold rights.
On a league-wide basis, no NHL team has selected a goaltender in the first round since 2012 (Andrei Vasilevskiy by Tampa at 19th overall and Malcolm Subban by Boston at 24th overall). In fact, there have only been four goalies taken in the first round dating back to 2009. Among goalies drafted in any round from 2008 onward, only Braden Holtby (selected by Washington in the fourth round, 93rd overall, in 2008) has reached the 150-game mark in the NHL up to this point.
Will there be a goalie in the Class of 2015 who could sneak into the first round of the Draft? Might the Flyers even select a goalie with the first-round pick acquired from Tampa if the top 28 or 29 picks are position players? Russian netminder Ilya Samsonov, Canadian netminder Mackenzie Blackwood and Swedish goalie Felix Sandström are all well-regarded prospects. TSN's Craig Button has Samsonov ranked 14th overall on his final "Craig's List."
Pryor said he thinks there is a possibility that a team in the bottom one-third of the first round could opt for a goaltender. However, based on his comments, it seems that Pryor himself does not believe there is a clear-cut top goaltending prospect at this point. By extension, the odds seem fairly low that the Flyers will have a goalie ranked as the best available player when they make their second pick of the first round.
Said Pryor, "I think it could be [possible that a goalie goes in the first round]. I think there’s a number of goalies… I don’t know if right now if there’s any one particular goalie who’s making a statement to say I’m the guy, but when I say that, there’s a group of guys that any one of those guys could be the first guy taken. I think there’s always a chance. I think if it does happen, I think it’s going to be somewhere in the 20th pick on back. There’s a group of goalies that we like, and when you put it with that group of players, we’ll see how it translates, but it wouldn’t surprise me if one of those goalies had someone yell their name off on Friday."
Nevertheless, the Flyers would still like to take at least one goaltender along the way if possible. Having so many picks in top 99 selections increases these odds. A year ago, there were a couple of runs on goalie prospects (starting in the second round) that knocked off the names the Flyers had within their projected range when their next selection came up. This time around, it's more likely there will be goalies within Philly's range that would not be too much of a reach with their picks after the first round.
"We’ve got guys targeted in different areas that we might have a chance to talk about. We’re talking about different spots in the draft. We’re going to try to address that if we can," said Pryor.
Pryor and his staff of Flyers amateur scouts are in Buffalo this week for the 2015 NHL Combine. Originally Hextall planned to attend, too, but travel snafus arose and the plan changed.
Pryor said that most of the homework the scouting staff has done on Draft-eligible prospects is already done before the Combine. There could be small-scale movement on where the Flyers rank a player based on the physical testing and interviews at the Combine, but no one will dramatically move in the team's rankings based on this week.
"I think it’s more of a fine tuning, to be honest with you," Pryor said. "For our organization, our guys have done their homework and their interviews and met the kids and talked to the parents. They’ve already done the bulk of their work. This is a good chance for us to maybe tie up some loose ends, maybe meet some kids that as a group we haven’t met yet, maybe gather some more information. I don’t know if guys are going to necessarily move up or move down dramatically depending on how they perform at the combine.
"I think you’ve got to be careful with that stuff, because obviously some kids are physically more mature, and other kids maybe haven’t been through this whole process before, the interviews and the testing. It’s pretty intimidating sometimes. So you do have to be careful what you get out of it, but I think there’s a lot of value. You put a face to a name and you get to know the kids a little bit which is always good."
Pundits and the draft prospects themselves sometimes try to read into which teams interview them at the Combine as an indication of which clubs are the most interested in selecting these players. However, Pryor notes that the Flyers scouts (like all teams) have already spoken with many of these young players before as well as their coaches and others.
A player NOT being interviewed by a team at the Combine is not necessarily an indication of a club leaning in another direction. For example, the Flyers did not interview Sean Couturier in 2011. Meanwhile, Travis Sanheim interviewed with all 30 NHL teams last season. This was likely because Sanheim was such a dramatic late-riser from the beginning to the end of the 2013-14 season.
Pryor said that he actually enjoys the player interview portion of the Combine more than the battery of rigorous physical fitness tests that participants undergo.
"I think our guys really enjoy getting to meet the kids a little bit. The area guys have already talked to these kids, but as a group, a lot of times we’ve seen these kids play, and it’s interesting to see their makeup off the ice. It’s always interesting to see how they handle themselves in a situation like we’re in," said Pryor.
"It’s pretty intimidating, to have a group of guys there asking questions, and if they’ve never been through it, how they handle it. It’s interesting how the kids are made up. I like it. For me, a lot of times it’s the first time I get to meet a kid. I’ve seen the kid play, but actually talk to them … maybe there’s some questions a guy has on their mind they like to ask the kid, so it’s interesting to hear their response. It’s a good exercise to go through."
There is also a certain amount of information to be gleaned from the physical fitness testing, specifically in terms of muscular development, comparative frames and levels of cardiovascular conditioning. However, these are primarily useful for identifying concentration areas to craft a post-Draft conditioning program as the teenage players try to prepare for the rigors of the pro game.
While the Flyers are sticklers for their players' conditioning, it is foolish to read too much into the long-term implications of whether one 17-year-old or 18-year-old is more filled out than a comparable player as of June of their draft year. The gap often narrows or closes entirely within a few years.
Hockey isn't football. If there was some NHL Combine equivalent of former Philadelphia Eagles player Mike Mamula, it's unlikely the player would suddenly become a top-10 draft pick if he wasn't previously projected near that range. Mamula was the former Boston College defensive end who infamously rocketed up from his pre-draft ranking in 1995 based mostly on his spectacular NFL Combine testing results and ended up being taken seventh overall by the Eagles after they traded up five spots to get him, with rather disappointing results relative to his draft position.