This has been a tough trade to breakdown, in part because of how fair it was. Seems like most trades nowadays are either a cap move or one where another GM gets fleeced. It’s not often to see such a pure fair hockey trade. Wednesday the feeling was sad about losing Johansen; after giving it a day, the feeling is excitement because holy crap is Seth Jones good.
I got some flack Wednesday for calling Jones a true #1 defencemen already at this stage in his career. Today I am going to show how good Jones is and show that that claim is not is as crazy as it sounds.
We start with his HERO chart which provides a snapshot at the player has performed over a three year span at even strength. For Jones this covers his entire NHL career.
Jones has been a top four player in terms of sheer offensive production. He has generated goals and assists at a top four rate already which is remarkable considering he is just 21 years old. Where Jones really stands out though is in the possession metrics. He has been a top pairing guy in terms of both Corsi For as well as Corsi against. Again this is remarkable for a player so young.
Looking past the personal stats the next step is look at how Jones has impacted his teammates since joining the league. To do this I looked at his With Or Without You (WOWY) stats to get an idea at how he impacts his teammates, from a possession standpoint. The following chart shows the Corsi For differential between when the player is on the ice with Jones versus when they are not. A positive differential means that the player did better when on the ice with Jones. Negative means he did worse.
Of the 23 players, 17 of them saw an improvement playing with Jones. This is another great sign for him. The player set to benefit the most from this will be Ryan Murray, Jones’ expected d partner. Murray hasn’t played with someone this good since James Wisniewski. This has the potential to become one of the best defensive pairs in the NHL.
This is all great but we do have to acknowledge the elephant in the room; ice time. Jones has been on a very good defence core in Nashville and has yet to get significant minutes in a top pair. He has yet to handle the top forwards game in and game out since the tough assessments usually go to Weber and Josi. While there is some true to that I think it’s overstated and over the course of a season ends up being a wash. Even if I'm wrong on that, Jones has been crushing it in a smaller role and has proven that he deserves a shot to be that top guy.
Considering his stats, talent, and draft pedigree I say he absolutely can handle an increased role and should continue to have the same impact he did in Nashville.
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