If you have noticed, or even cared, I'm not pumping out the articles, opinions or analysis of the Jets as frequently in the past. It's not that I don't have a plethora of topics or items to discuss and dissect, no, it's simply because I'm trying to understand this team and get a feel for it.
It's easy to right a glowing review of a win or a scathing criticism after a loss. Those types of pieces are short-sighted in comparison to how we should look at the Jets, at least that's how I see it. This is how I feel right now and I'll go back to praise and criticism too, probably tomorrow but let's take a different approach.
Here's the theory- the Jets have been a mediocre team for about a year now and these struggles now are only more pronounced with a weaker roster.
Let's see if that theory holds water.
First this is not going to be about underlying numbers. Those, in my humble opinion, look at explaining the ‘how’ and ‘why’ the record or trend is happening. I’m more interested in seeing if there is a trend, at least right now.
Starting in January of last year the Jets had 44 games to play here’s what happened in those 44 games.
January
7W 5L 1O
5 game win streak 4 game losing streak
February
5W 3L 4O
March
8W 6L
5 game win streak
April
4W 1O
To start the 2015 year the Jets entered at 19-12-7 if you go back by games played to date now (33 games) the Jets had a record of 17-10-06 vs 15-16-02 this year. Loser point makes a difference in some cases.
By December 21st 2014 the Jets had had 5 2 game win streaks with one 3 game streak and one 5 game regulation unbeaten streak. By December 21 2015 the Jets have had 5 2 game win streaks. In terms of losing the Jets have lost 5 games in a row this season so far and by the same date last year had one 4 game losing streak. However he issue here is how they have managed to not gather the loser point this season.
In the first 34 games last year the Jets had a 1.2 pts per game average that went up to 1.21 in the final 48 they had 1.21. This year after 33 games they have earned .969 points per game. If you break the season into 10 and 20 game segments this is what they did last year.
1-10 9 pts 11-20 23 pts 21-30 36 pts 31-40 47 pts 41-50 60 pts 51-60 70 pts 61-70 82 pts 71-82 99pts
1-20 23 pts 21-40 47 pts 41-60 70 pts 61-82 99 pts
The Jets got better as the season went on. They pushed their point to game differential higher. This is what the 10 game break down looks like in 2015.
1-10 13 pts 11-20 20 pts 21-30 30 pts
What way are they likely to trend now through the next 7 games? Essentially they are barely treading water and other teams are pulling away. Like others in the bottom 3rd of the league the Jets struggle with consistency and that’s a product of something. Therein lies the struggles with the Jets, what is contributing to the inconsistency?
One could suggest that the blockbuster trade that landed Myers and Stafford while jettisoning Kane and Bogosian was the turning point for the Jets surge and improvement last year. The record would suggest it too but other things happened as well. The Jets also acquired to solid veterans in Tlusty and Stempniak starting on Feb 25th with Tlusty and March 1 with Stempniak.
Since Feb 25 2015 the Jets had 26 points in 19 games for a 1.36 points per game average. Take any other 19 game segment and the Jets never had more points in that span the only one that comes close is between games 23 and 42 where they had 24 points.
I won’t make the same argument that the Jets should have kept one if not both of Stempniak and Tlusty- you’ve heard it before. I will present that the fans’, and perhaps management’s, expectations were set on a team with that level of depth. It’s not there anymore. That’s not to the fault of the two former Jets but to what filled their spots.
The point here is that the Jets may have gotten younger but they didn’t get any better. To save you the time of going back up here was the original theory: the Jets have been a mediocre team for about a year now and these struggles now are only more pronounced with a weaker roster.
That does not seem to be true but we can learn something from the data, albeit somewhat simple data. The Jets have suffered a change in results based on the changes to their roster from the end of last season to the start of this season.
Now looking down the long road to get into the playoffs does it make sense to even try to join the race if you know you don’t have the pieces to begin with? Do the Jets, i.e. Kevin Cheveldayoff, even realize that this might be a possibility? How does that affect the appetite to pay Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien who are UFA at the end of this season?
What most fans should be wondering is if management realizes why the Jets might be what they have become and how does that affect future moves. Those are pretty big thoughts and we’ll probably know the answer in about 30 days or so I would imagine.