It’s August so what better time than the present to look through and try to find some shooting regression candidates both positive and negative heading into the 2021-22 season.
There’s nothing fancy about this. What did the player shoot last season and how does it stack up to their larger sample in the NHL
Overall, the majority of forwards outproduced their career averages last year. This isn’t an exact science and the players could certainly do the same thing again next year. It could also go the other way. Another consideration is how often these players shoot. Obviously, the players with a higher shot volume this stuff matters more. Evan Rodrigues outperforming his career shooting percentage isn’t as notable as Kasper Kapanen’s +4.5%.
Kapanen is the one I’m worried about the most here and it has to do with his style of play and how dependent the perception of him relies on his shooting percentage. A lot of what he does is off the rush. They are one and done chances. Last season the shots went in at a career best rate. His career percentage is fine, but when you look at the roster without Jared McCann can the Penguins afford for him to go back to his career rate? This isn’t a Kasperi Kapanen problem as much as it is a Penguins roster construction problem.
Bryan Rust has outperformed his career percentage the past two years and significantly so in 2019-20. What if he drops below for the first time in a few years? Jason Zucker was actually slightly above his respectable career average and we all know what we thought about his season last year.
Jeff Carter had a wild 2020-21 season. He was bone dry in Los Angeles and went on a ripper with the Penguins shooting 24.3%. He’s not doing that again, but 11% would be just fine and his NHL sample is huge at this point. I’m not anticipating him having a cold spell like he did in Los Angeles last year and I think his 11% average is definitely attainable.
In normal circumstances I would be bullish about Malkin being on the bottom, but you just don’t know with the injuries and how he’ll bounce back. How much has that elbow injury hurt his ability to let it rip? That said, I think before he hurt his knee, he was playing great and there is certainly a timeline where he comes back, gets his conditioning back, and looks really good again.
What else can I say about Jake Guentzel other than he’s a damn good goal scorer. He’s 747 shots into his NHL career and still shooting 16%, which is tremendous.
Sidney Crosby is still doing Sidney Crosby things. He finished 4th in Hart Trophy voting last year. His consistency throughout his career has continued into his mid-thirties.
The offensive depth on this team took a hit when Jared McCann was traded (he himself a negative regressions candidate). They didn’t really replace him with another offensive oriented player. For the Penguins to be competitive next year they’ll need this chart to look similar with players avoiding dipping below their averages. A lot of these players have double digit career percentages which is nice, but hockey is fickle and sometimes there’s no rhyme or reason for cold or hot streaks. What we do know is these percentages shape both perception and results.
Thanks for reading!