The Sabres are in action for an 8:30 puck drop in the Windy City tonight. Does this qualify as #Sabresafterdark? Maybe it’s #Sabresatdark. Either way, let’s talk about are some of the key things to watch for in the contest.
Quite the Streak: How’s this for a wild stat: Buffalo native Patrick Kane has never lost a game in Chicago against the Buffalo Sabres, per Brian Duff of The Instigators. Put another way, Kane hasn’t lost a home game to Buffalo since George W. Bush was president of these United States. That’s an absolutely ridiculous stat. Now, it is true that due to the interconference play, the Sabres and the Blackhawks only meet up once a year, but still, that’s something else.
Still Good: Kane is showing no signs of slowing down at 33 years old. He leads the team with points at 78 in 62 games and is 15 points of the next closest player (Alex Debrincat) by 15. With one year left on his contract in Chicago, and with Chicago undergoing a rebuild, it’s fair to wonder what the 10-million-dollar per year right wing could get if he were made available to teams via trade this summer. You’d have to think other teams would be lining up to make offers, and the Blackhawks should probably be in the business of listening to those calls considering where they are in the standings.
Flower Power: The ‘Hawks dealt Marc-Andre Fleury to the Minnesota Wild at the trade deadline which left them with two goalies under the .900 save percentage mark: Kevin Lankinen (.889) and Collin Delia (.897). The Blackhawks did very well for themselves and received a first-round pick in return for the aging goaltender. Fleury made out well too by moving to a bona fide Stanley Cup contender. The Sabres should be able to get more than a couple past the Chicago goaltenders tonight.
Cold Spell: It’s not just the weather outside that’s abnormally cold for the season. Several Sabres have hit a cold snap recently, starting with Alex Tuch. He has only 3 points in his last 11 games, compared to 23 points in 23 points to start his injury truncated season. That lack of production obviously played a factor in Don Granato’s decision to move Tuch off the line with Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner onto a line with Peyton Krebs and Vinnie Hinostroza. That hasn’t worked yet. We’ll see how tonight shakes out.
Dylan Cozens, too, has gone ice cold with zero points in his last six games. Cozens rightly gets credit for the impressive intangibles he brings to the game at such a young age, but the Sabres could really use more offense out of him. While Casey Mittelstadt tends to attract more negative attention from the fan base, they have almost identical points-per-game paces this year with Mittelstadt at .45 and Dylan Cozens at .49 so far.
Heating Up: Speaking of Casey Mittelstadt, he’s on the opposite side of the spectrum from Tuch and Cozens currently. With five points in his last four games, Mittelstadt has been on a mini heater. That’s huge for the Sabres moving forward. The hoping entering the season was that Mittelstadt would be able to pick up where he left off with Granato to end last season, and while that hasn’t been the case in this injury riddled season, he’s showing signs of life again. Tonight’s presumed starter, Dustin Tokarski, is currently riding a hot streak himself. His save percentage in the last three games (.967, 1.00, .925) has been better than the team’s record in front of him over that span (1-1-1).
Fancy Stats Goalie Update: It’s been a while since I’ve checked in on the goals saved above replacement stats of Dustin Tokarski and Craig Anderson. Interestingly, Tokarski has actually gotten to the positive side of the ledger with 1.2 goals saved above replacement, and his wins above replacement is at .2 games. Craig Anderson is similarly pedestrian with with a .5 GAR and a .1 WAR. These guys are playing some average hockey! For contrast, Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin has 45 expected goals saved above replacement.
Meaningful Games in March: Despite going 3-0-2 in their last five games, the Sabres are, of course, well out of the playoff hunt. There is one potential milestone that is technically still possible, and though the chances of it happening are so remote it’s almost not worth mentioning, here it goes. Don Granato’s Sabres could finish at .500 – that is an equal amount of wins, losses and overtime losses – if they were to go 12-2-2 over the last 16 games of the year and finish 35-35-12. Do I expect that to happen? Hell no. Would it be great to see, even if it is largely meaningless in the grand scheme of things? Absolutely.