Larry Brooks wrote his second expansion projection column in the last six weeks Monday. In this one, the problem of how to try and protect Michael Grabner was discussed. Grabner, by virtue of his 19 goals and contract for just $1.65 million next season, has pushed his way up the possible protection list. The problem is others by virtue of non-movement clauses or role they also play on the team for the present and future may have a higher claim on one of those spots.
A refresher course on the rules: 1) Each team is allowed to protect either eight skaters and one goaltender or seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender. 2) Players with no-move clauses must be protected unless they agree to waive that right. 3) First- and second-year pros and unsigned draft picks are exempt from claim. 4) Each team must expose one goaltender who is either under contract for 2017-18 or a restricted free agent who has received his qualifying offer. 5) Each team must expose one defenseman under contract for 2017-18 who played at least 40 games this season or 70 combined last year and this. 6) Each team must expose two forwards who meet the same criteria.
The Rangers will protect 7+3+1 due to their roster construction. As noted by #2 above, players with no movement clauses, unless they agree to waive them, have to be protected. I believe RFAs can be snapped up by Vegas, as they get first rights to do so, but are subject to the same rules in signing an RFA as the other 30 teams teams. But, RFAs do not count towards the veteran exposure requirement, which is another sticking point for the Rangers. Here is the Rangers current roster, showing their cap hit and who has a no-movement clause: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/rangers
Goalie: The Blueshirts are obligated to protect Henrik Lundqvist (no move). Thus, Antti Raanta will be exposed for claim by Vegas.
This is the same as prior. Losing Raanta based on how well he has paid and $1 million cap hit would hurt. Raanta could potentially return if GM Jeff Gorton finds a way to package a player and/or a pick to Vegas to have them select someone else. This has precedence, as seen in the column below and also as noted in this last week's Hockey News' columns on the recent expansion drafts. I don't believe there is anything precluding this within the expansion rules. (http://thehockeywriters.com/expansion-draft-loopholes/)
Defense: Ryan McDonagh, Nick Holden and Marc Staal (no move) will be protected. Brady Skjei is exempt.Dan Girardi owns a no-move clause. Expect Gorton to either ask Girardi to waive the no-move or to buy out the Blueblood defenseman before the list is filed. If Girardi is amenable, he fills the exposure requirement. If the Rangers buy out Girardi before the draft, then Kevin Klein is the only current defenseman who fits the bill. Adam Clendening is a restricted free agent who would both need to sign an extension and play at least 31 of the final 40 games to qualify. Not likely (which means he is subject the RFA rules I noted above).
What has changed from prior for Brooks and something we discussed is adding Holden to the protected list. Holden has been the team's most consistent d-man this year. Factor that in along with his $1.65 million hit and you see why he was added to the list. I know several writers, especially Adrià¡n Dater, believe that what Holden is doing is an aberration and he revert back to the pumpkin (euphemistic term) he was in Colorado. Even if that happens to an extent, he still would be value at that price. I know there was some questions yesterday on if Holden had an NMC. Brooks noting the NMC was just for Staal not Holden, as you can see from the roster link above.
The Girardi piece is the key. I was hoping that he and Marc Staal would benefit from the extra time off. Staal has, Girardi for the most part hasn't. Is he as bad as everyone claims, no, likely not, but his play has regressed and he is better served playing third pairing, protected minutes. If that is the case, then the $5.5 mil AAV for the next three years along with the need to protect him and lose another asset mandates a buyout or him waving the NMC so he can be moved. G has been a warrior and I think he has been unfairly taken to task, but the market realities dictate the situation.
Forwards: All right, here’s the mess. Rick Nash (no move), Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes will be protected. There are your seven, and Grabner is nowhere to be found. Jimmy Vesey and Pavel Buchnevich are exempt.Indeed, at the moment, Grabner is the only Ranger forward who fills the exposure requirement. Jesper Fast and Oscar Lindberg are pending restricted free agents. So is Brandon Pirri. So is Matt Puempel, who would need to play 18 games in order to qualify if signed before the draft. Of course, Gorton could sign any one of his pending Group II’s to extensions at any time (though we are told there are no ongoing talks with any) or acquire a compliant forward through trade.
Gorton has two issues. First, how to sign a potential RFA for one more year at a low enough cap hit to make him attractive to be select or open up the option for a trade to be made, whereby Vegas takes him and passes on Grabner. Second, even if he can sign someone, making sure he plays enough to fill the requirement. Gorton could do that with Puempel, but getting him 18 games in the next 40 will be challenging once everyone is healthy. Pirri might have looked to cash in after his strong start, but his one goal and three assists the past 23 games coupled with the lack of interest shown in him during the prior year's free agency period make that unlikely. So if Gorton is to sign someone it should be him. If not Pirri, then maybe Marek Hrivik or Nicklas Jensen, making them exposure eligible and able to be dealt with a pick to protect Grabner. Lindberg and Fast are other options to be signed to an additional year now to make them exposure eligible, as seen above. But those are two I hope New York can keep to fill out the third or fourth line, but dealing one may end up as the cost to keep Grabner.
As Brooks noted, Grabner's now 19 goals, after he was awarded one yesterday that originally was credited to Clendening, ranks ninth in the NHL. The extra goal breaks the tie he had with Auston Matthews for the NHL lead with now 19 even-strength goals. He ranks second to Sidney Crosby in the NHL in G/60 (goals per 60 minutes) and leads in five-on-five G/60. In addition, he brings the indispensable element of disruptive speed on both sides of the puck the Blueshirts previously owned in Carl Hagelin. Grabner may not be as effective a playmaker or forechecker as the flashier Hagelin, but he has much better hands and is a far superior finisher, mostly of chances that his combination of a quick stick and quick thinking creates for himself.The last few sentences directly above is why I waned Grabner at last year's trading deadline and why I was so happy they signed. His speed, especially on the penalty kill, is a huge weapon. On offense, he uses that speed to create room for him and his linemates. As I noted yesterday, even if he had half or a quarter as many goals as he has now, he still would be a huge bargain. I don't expect him to keep this pace up given his history. But if he gets just 5-10 more goals but continues his strong play on the penalty kill, his value still will remain high. While I want him to stay and other assets should be moved first, Gorton can't give up too much to do so. But seeing how much New York missed Hagelin after he was gone, making sure Grabner stays should be a priority.