Below were my picks for the first round. I thought I was being bold, but after seeing who others have picked, my selections may be as outlandish as I first thought. Seeing how it all transpired, I clearly wasn't that bold in round one.
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals : Tampa Bay over New Jersey in 6 games Boston over Toronto in 7 games Washington over Columbus in 7 games Pittsburgh over Philadelphia in 6 games
Western Conference Quarterfinals : Nashville over Colorado in 5 games Winnipeg over Minnesota in 6 games Los Angeles over Las Vegas in 6 games San Jose over Anaheim in 7 games
I went 7 for 8 in the first round, totally whiffing on Vegas. Got Boston and Pittsburgh series completely accurate in terms of games played. Missed broadly in terms of number of games played in the Sharks series. Overshot by one game in the Lightning, Capitals and Jets wins and undershot by one in the Predators victory.
Conference Semifinals:
Below was my predictions for the Conference Semifinals. In my original overall playoff predictions, I had San Jose over LA. Here, I replaced the Kings with the Golden Knights, but still had the Sharks advancing. My predictions for round one got all four Eastern teams correct.
Eastern Conference Semifinals : Boston over Tampa Bay in 7 games Washington over Pittsburgh in 6 games
Western Conference Semifinals : Winnipeg over Nashville in 7 games San Jose over Las Vegas in 6 games
I went 2-for-4, getting Washington correct and Winnipeg right in the actual number of games played. Whiffs on Boston, who spent more time talking about Brad Marchand’s licking than in the Tampa Bay offensive zone, and Las Vegas, who rode stellar goaltending again from Marc-Andre Fleury and a balanced atttack to defeat San Jose.
Conference Finals Schedule:
Here were my predictions. Originally, I had Winnipeg over San Jose. Here, I replace the Sharks with the Golden Knights, but still have the Jets advancing. In the East, I had Boston over Washington. The Bruins are replaced by the Lightning, who I take to get past the Capitals and advance to their third second Cup Finals in the past four years.
Eastern Conference Finals : Tampa Bay over Washington in 6 games
Western Conference Finals : Winnipeg over Las Vegas in 7 games
I went 0-for-2. Washington went up two games to zero, fell behind three games to two and rallied to win the next two and advance to their first Cup Finals in 20 years. Vegas lost the first game against Winnipeg, trailing for the first time in a series. The Golden Knights then reeled out four straight wins to become the first expansion club to reach the Stanley Cup Finals since the Blues did it in 1967-68 and 68-69, though since all six expansion teams in '67 were in the same division and one had to automatically advance, Vegas advancing this far is a true accomplishment. The matchup is the first time two teams that have never won the Cup met since 2006-07 when Anaheim faced Ottawa and sixth in hockey history.
A franchise will celebrate its 1st ever #StanleyCup at the end of this series. As this list shows, this is only the 6th SC Final matchup to guarantee that since the beginning of the NHL pic.twitter.com/rhDq3LFnov
— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) May 29, 2018
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— NHL (@NHL) May 27, 2018
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Stanley Cup Finals : Washington over Vegas in 6 games
Brief analysis of the finals Vegas vs. Washington In short, Vegas and Washington each have speed, but the Knights are a quicker team while the Capitals are a more physical group. Vegas is deep up front, rolling four lines, while Washington relies heavily on their top-two lines but their bottom-six made a huge difference in the series win over Tampa Bay and may have better overall forward depth. The Caps likely have a better overall blue line, led by John Carlson, but the Knights D has exceeded expectations, spurred by the play of Nate Schmidt and Brayden McNabb as their top pair. Between the pipes, Marc-Andre Fleury has been a brick wall while Braden Holtby replaced Phillip Grubauer in the second game of the first round and is 12-6 in the playoffs, For Barry Trotz, a free agent after the season, and Gerard Gallant, led go by Florida, this season and especially post-season in Trotz's case has been one of redemption.
Vegas doesn’t have big names, but can match Washington's production up front with William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith, who are bolstered by Alex Tuch, Erik Haula and James Neal on the second line. For Washington, Alexander Ovechkin has taken his game to another level all over the ice but Evgeni Kuznetsov leads all scorers in the playoffs with 24 points. Tom Wilson is the agitator on that top. Nicklas Backstrom is playing with what looks like a broken right index finger, yet is still capable of sublime passes, like the one to T.J. Oshie, who has 15 points these playoffs, for the first goal of Game 6. they are joined by Jakub Vrana, who hasn't scored in eight games, on the second line.
The bottom-six for each squad will be critical. Ryan Carpenter-Cody Eakin-David Perron is the third line for Vegas while Ryan Reaves, who got the game-winner in Game 5 against the Jets, should start due Wilson's presence alongside Tomas Nosek and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. If Vegas opts for a scoring winger on either of those two lines, Tomas Tatar, who has disappointed since coming over from Detroit, should get the nod. Andre Burakhovksy scored twice in the game-clinching win over Tampa, his first two goals in the playoffs, and should remain on the third line with Lars Eller, who stepped up on the second line when Backstrom was sidelined, and Brett Connolly. Chandler Stephenson-Jay Beagel-Devante Smith-Pelly comprise the checking line with Nathan Walker in reserves.
On defense, Carlson has been phenomenal, leading all defenseman in scoring with 16 points. Michal Kempny, acquired from Chicago, may have been the best trade deadline acquisition due to his play as a Cap. Dimitry Orlov has stepped up his offensive game this post-season opposite Matt Niskanen, who also has eight points. Veteran Brooks Orpik and Christian Djoos is the third pair and one Vegas will look to target, especially with their top line. For Vegas, Schmidt-McNabb hae proven to be a shutdown pair. Derek Engelland, a Vegas native, and Shea Theodore, who leads the Knights D in scoring with seven points, is the second pair. Colin Miller-Luca Sbisa is the third pair. Overall, this is an area where Washington appears to have the edde but all year, Vegas D has exceeded expectations.
Fleury has been unconscious these playoffs. With a 1.68 goals-against average (GAA) and .947 save percentage, Fleury has the second best goals-saved above average in the past decade at 17.56, just behind Jonas Hiller from 2008-09 in Anaheim. MAF carried Vegas to the win over Winnipeg, because even with Connor Hellebuyck's struggles, the Jets would have outscored Vegas if not for the other-worldly play of Fleury. Holtby rescued the Caps in Round One and has continued that fine play forward. A 2.04 GAA and .924 SV% is stellar as well, but Fleury can carry his team on his back, I am unsure Holtby can do the same and it remains to be seen of that will be necessary.
Vegas must stay out of the penalty box. An 82.5% penalty kill rate is very good, but Washington is scoring on 28.8 of their man-advantage chances. The Golden Knights are 10th in PP success at 17.6% while the Caps are 10th in PK success at 75.4%. As usual, special teams may define who wins the series.
Fleury will keep the Knights in the series while the Vegas top line will continue their success. If the bottom-six can contribute, Vegas can win this series. Washington appears to be a team of destiny, rallying against Tampa after vanquishing the demons in beating Pittsburgh. Their depth and physical play will eventually wear down Vegas, who will try and counter with their superior speed.
Capitals in 6
For New York, the interest level has been dulled substantially. With Tampa losing, the Rangers miss out on having the second round pick in 2019 become a first rounder plus their position in round one of the draft is already locked in. The only question is as a Rangers fan are you rooting for or against Ovi winning and raising the Cup?
Would I be shocked if I was wrong? Not in the slightest because Vegas has exceeded all expectations throughout the season. The glitz of the strip versus the star quality of Ovechkin is the NHL's ad campaign.
As I wrote in my playoff preview blog, predicting the playoffs is at times a futile exercise and that remains true even after round one. As we know, a Cup run is a battle of attribution with injuries playing a major role. Every year, some unsung hero steps up to help lead his team to an unexpected win in either a game or series. This season should be no different. Nothing beats sudden death overtime hockey, especially when your team is not one of the two on the ice because you can just watch as a fan rather than living and dying with each rush up the ice. Settle in and watch the contests in the best time of year in what should be a tremendous conference finals.