Quick Hits: October 1, 2020
1) In his current edition of 31 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman wrote that he believes the Flyers are one of the teams along with Los Angeles capable of putting together a package of players and assets that could convince the Winnipeg Jets to trade Patrik Laine.
Laine, who turned 22 in April, has one year left on his current deal at a $6.75 million cap hit. His next contract is going to be a very expensive one against a flat cap, especially if it's signed as an RFA next summer and he returns to the 35-to-40+ goal form he showed in his first two NHL seasons.
Friedman, however, was unsure the Flyers or Kings would be willing to pay the sort of price tag it would take, trade package wise (or, presumably, cap wise long-term given other needs) to make such a deal. Friedman wrote that Winnipeg prefers not to trade Nikolaj Ehlers, although his name, too, has been much-rumored on the trade market.
There is certainly allure to the possibility of acquiring Laine. I fully expect that his 44-goal, 70-point second season (both career highs to date) will not be his only 40-plus goal or 70-plus point seasons in his career. He's still very young and, with the exception of Alex Ovechkin or a healthy Steven Stamkos, one would be hard pressed to find a more explosive shooter.
This past year, Winnipeg coach Paul Maurice challenged Laine to become more than just a one-dimensional player (which Laine himself admitted to NHL.com was a valid criticism of his early career). While no one would call Laine a Selke Trophy candidate or remind anyone of countryman Jere Lehtinen in the two-way winger category, Laine did improve defensively this past year to the point where he was not a liability, at least not routinely. The improvements were subtle -- helping out a little more when the D goes up the wall and a forward is needed to help get the puck out over the defensive blueline, taking a little more pride in making sure the opposing D-man on his side doesn't have a gaping lane to pinch -- but they were there.
Additionally, Laine tried to be a little more physical this past season. He averaged a career-high 1.43 hits per game and had a career-high 97 total credited hits despite playing a career-low 68 games due to the pandemic-shortened season. There's no reason why he cannot and should not be in triple digit hits over a full season every year.
There are, however, still weaknesses in Laine's game. A player as big and strong as he is ought to be more effective on the forecheck and prolonging puck possession to wear down opponents. He's never really been a factor in that way; actually, he's a little bit below average as a possession player. When he sets his mind to it, he can be very tough to separate from the puck but he generally still prefers to look for a seam and wait for a playmaker to get him the puck.
Laine is capable of scoring on more than the 12.2% and 12.4% of his shots on goal that he posted the last two seasons. It's not hard to suspect that he will return to something closer to his shot percentages of his first two seasons, although they'll fluctuate based on how his team's power play fares. He should be getting double-digit power play goals annually. He had 8 this past (shortened) season.
Laine also still takes some pretty significant risks with the puck on his stick in terms of forcing plays that aren't there. That's often the case with skilled players -- they want the puck on their stick, and they'll try to make plays more frequently, so they'll turn more pucks over -- but it's an area he can still improve. His 57 charged giveaways this past season were a bit too high, but it's a double-edged sword. He also had his best credited takeaways per game (and just two off his cumulative high for a season), so he was clearly making an effort to be more consistently involved whether off-puck or with the puck. More involvement in competing for the puck -- apart from not being shy about shooting -- means more takeaways but also more giveaway opportunities.
Ultimately, at least in my opinion, it would be hard to justify trading as many pieces and prime assets -- and then committing as big a part of salary cap share as his contract for 2021-22 and beyond for many seasons -- would take for Laine. It would take almost annual seasons of 40 goals without sacrificing (actually, continuing to build upon) the less glamorous improvements he made over the last year to justify that.
2) On the other hand, Friedman reports that there have apparently been some trade discussions already involving Arizona being willing, at the right price, to discuss moving defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Friedman mentioned Vancouver as a team with possible interest, although it may not be doable.
The 29-year-old Ekman-Larsson's original eight-year contract runs through the 2026-27 season, carrying an $8.25 million cap hit (but real-dollar base salaries or signing bonus installment plus base salaries of $10.5 million in three of the next four seasons). Strictly from a hockey standpoint, at least if you believe that the superior formula to being an annual contender is strength down the middle (i.e., centers, D and goalies), the GM of a team that believes it currently has a Cup window open might want to pursue Ekman-Larsson and then worry about remaining term in another three or four years.
For multiple reasons, I really don't know that'd be the right move for the Flyers. For one, I am comfortable with Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim and Phil Myers comprising 3/4 of the current and long-term top four on D. Even if you could acquire OEL without parting with Sanheim or Myers (which I doubt), you're pretty much guaranteed to lose one of them to the Expansion Draft if you're protecting three D.
However, strictly as an immediate one-year or two-year roster question, if you were to ask me if I'd rather devote $8.25 million of cap space to add OEL and his guaranteed 23-plus minutes per game plus his normal 40-plus points as part of a top two with Provorov or if I'd rather have Patrik Laine at who-knows-what beyond next season and hope he scores 40-plus goals, I'd opt for further strengthening the top end of my blueline over the sexier option of the goal-scoring winger. The No. 1 and No. 2 on D would be at a cost-locked (and already known) price. I'd also weigh the fact that Matt Niskanen will be be a 34-year-old unrestricted free agent next offseason.
Do I think Laine or OEL are coming to Philly? No. But it's some fun Silly Season fodder to debate.
3) NBC Sports Philadelphia's Joe Fordyce caught up this week with veteran winger Bobby Ryan, who was recently bought out by the Ottawa Senators and is now an unrestricted free agent. Ryan made no secret -- he never has -- of the fact that he'd love to return to this area and play for the team he grew up rooting for. It's come close a few times in the past, but never came to fruition. Ryan said that the Flyers would be "high on his list", whether via contract or, depending on what offers come in during the offseason, even via training camp invite (doubtful to be needed).
Putting aside the sentiment of Ryan's immense likability (he's one of the sports best-liked people off the ice), his close personal ties to some in upper management and local roots, and his openness about his fight to maintain his hard-gained sobriety (simultaneously a one-day-at-a-time commitment and a lifelong battle), it would be hard to justify his addition this offseason for strictly hockey reasons. There are much younger middle/bottom 6 forwards on hand.
Moreoever and perhaps more importantly, James van Riemsdyk is still here. Even in a strictly average season, JVR more reliably produces more offensively than anything Ryan has done in six years. Yes, Ryan's recent Ottawa teams have been weak ones, but he had just 13 goals and 25 points on the last playoff-caliber Senators team (which made a conference Final run in 2016-17. Were Ryan's off-ice personal struggles a contributing factor? No question. But in and of itself, that doesn't explain everything. Everyone handles personal situations differently within their professional life. Nonetheless, there have been talented hockey players who still produced at significantly better levels while they were still in the primes of their careers. Ryan is four seasons removed from his last 20-goal season (and has only one 20-goal campaign in his last six seasons) and is eight years removed from his last 30-goal season (or even 25-plus goal pace on a prorated basis).
If the Flyers could somehow trade JVR without eating cap space or taking back one or more undesired contracts in return, Ryan on a discount one-year contract might be worth sacrificing 10 or more goals vs. JVR's expected output if other needs could be addressed. But that's a lot of ifs and not very likely to play out that way.
Earlier this week, Chuck Fletcher was asked to comment on Ryan and where he thought the veteran might land. Unsurprisingly -- no GM anywhere would speculate on where a player will sign or give up any hints on whether there's internal interest -- Fletcher did not engage the latter part of the question. However, reading between the lines, one did not get a sense that it's a direction the Flyers' GM is contemplating whether to take this offseason. Fletcher focused only on the personal side.
"That’s hard to say right now in terms of where he’ll land. What I can tell you that I was in Anaheim when we drafted Bobby. I’ve known him for a long time. He’s a tremendous person. He’s been a very good hockey player in this league. I think his recent battles have been well-documented and clearly he’s worked hard to get himself to a better place. He deserves a tremendous amount of credit for that. He’s a wonderful person. Certainly wish him nothing but the best. It’s hard to say right now what will transpire here over the next week," Fletcher said.
4) Today in Flyers History: Oct. 1 edition
* 1967: Shortly before the start of their inaugural regular season, the Flyers purchased the contract of forward Dick Sarrazin from the Detroit Red Wings. A mainstay for the Calder Cup finalist Quebec Aces during the 1967-68 season, the French-Canadian forward contributed 16 goals and 46 points to the offense-starved Flyers in 1968-69; good enough for third on the team that season behind regular linemates Andre Lacroix and Jean-Guy Gendron.
* 1992: The Flyers acquired left winger Brent Fedyk from the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for a 1993 fourth-round pick. Head coach Bill Dineen soon placed Fedyk (No. 18) on a line with rookie center Eric Lindros (No. 88) and young vet Mark Recchi (No. 8) to form a trio that was soon dubbed "the Crazy Eights" line. The 25-year-old Fedyk, originally Detroit's first-round selection (8th overall, oddly enough given the Crazy Eights motif), posted 21 goals and 59 points in his first season as a Flyer and 20 goals with 38 points in his second. During the 1993-94 season, Fedyk was bumped down by new head coach Terry Simpson to Rod Brind'Amour's line with team captain Kevin Dineen on the right side. Calder Trophy finalist Mikael Renberg took over Fedyk's spot with Lindros and Recchi.
5) October 1 Flyers Alumni birthdays: Denis Gauthier (1976), Larry Keenan (1940), Mike Maneluk (1973), Johnny Oduya (1981), Alexei Zhamnov (1970).