The season is officially on the line for both the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals. Both teams have a wonderful opportunity ahead of them tonight. Either team will be a comfortable favorite against the Ottawa Senators in the Eastern Conference Finals. Before the playoffs started there was talk about this series and how whoever won it would have a free pass to the Stanley Cup Final.
It’s there on a platter for Pittsburgh or Washington.
For Pittsburgh they can take comfort knowing that in the sport of hockey any team in the NHL can beat any opponent on any given night. Weird bounces happen, goalies can play out of their mind etc…
Washington can take comfort in knowing they have been the way better team and have just battled back to win three against a tiring and undermanned Penguins team.
Both teams have game breakers and high end skill which makes the winner-take-all stakes all the more exciting. There will be scoring chances (probably more Washington ones). This game shouldn’t take the form of a 60 minutes (or more) bore fest. Both goaltenders will be called upon to make high-danger saves at some point. What makes that so much fun for a neutral fan is that both Marc-Andre Fleury (75.0) and Braden Holtby (77.5) have been among the worst goalies in the playoffs in making those saves. For context the league average in these playoffs has been 81.2%. The league average in the regular season was also 81.2%.
So what can Pittsburgh do to maximize their potential of winning tonight?
For the love of god change up the defense pairings. Pittsburgh has been living in their own end and a large unmistakable part of it has been the defense’s lack of ability in getting the puck to the forwards under control. This in turn allows Washington to transition the puck right back to the Penguins zone. Treating the defensive pairings as equals has dumbed down the effectiveness of the unit and has killed the forwards. Justin Schultz is really the only thing remotely close to resembling Kris Letang and the team hasn't tried to maximize that ability. If you're worried about what the other defense pairings would look like if you combined Dumoulin-Schultz, don't, all the pairings have stunk so far in these playoffs.
Marc-Andre Fleury will need to be one of the Penguins best players. There is no other way with the current setup. Pittsburgh allocated a significant amount of money to keep Fleury around and they need that investment to pay off. During this series when Fleury has played above the all situations league average for these playoffs (.919) the Penguins have won. When he has been below, they have lost. It is a lot of responsibility to throw at one player, but that is the nature of the goaltending position.
In a league that hates calling penalties it also happens to be Game 7 in the playoffs. Unfortunately, for Pittsburgh that means they probably won’t get a lot of looks at using one of their best strengths which is their power play. This is one area where the Penguins can go on the attack and the Capitals wouldn’t be able to dictate otherwise. Pittsburgh will probably need at least one power play goal at some point tonight if the flow of even-strength action continues to heavily favor the Capitals.
There was a surprise guest at the Penguins morning skate this morning. It was Matt Murray. As far as Game 7 goes it is irrelevant. He isn't going to start and if he gets in the game that means the Penguins are toast anyways. This development would only have an impact if the Penguins advance.
Here were the Penguins lines yesterday at practice.
#Pens lines:
— Wes Crosby (@OtherNHLCrosby) May 9, 2017
Guentzel--Crosby--Rust
Kunitz--Malkin--Kessel
Sheary--Bonino--Hornqvist
Hagelin--Cullen--Rowney
Today was an optional skate and there were no line combos
History says that if you want to get the most out of Patric Hornqvist he needs to be playing with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin.
Tom Kuhnhackl on after we left the room. Would indicate Rowney's in. Also interesting was Wilson off quickly.
— Jason Mackey (@JMackeyPG) May 10, 2017
Tom Kuhnhackl has a low ceiling and I'm fine with him exiting the lineup. I would personally take my chances with Scott Wilson who had a 1.91 points per 60 at 5v5 in the regular season. If you're worried about losing Kuhnhackl for the power play, don't be. Out of 234 forwards that played 25 minutes at 4v5 this season Kuhnhackl ranks 205th with a CA/60 of 111.6
The likely candidate to enter the lineup is Carter Rowney. We'll have to wait until warmups to get that confirmed.
Washington will not be changing their lineup. Why would they?
Andre Burakovsky has come alive since the line changes. Look for him to continue to be a thorn in the Penguins side. He has had a wonderful series to this point. His postseason CF% is 66.4 and his 5v5 points per 60 is at 2.31. The Capitals already have quite a number of game breakers, add Andre to the list.
If you told me before the series that the Penguins would have a chance to win the series in a Game 7 I would have taken it. That is the situation they are in tonight. The better team doesn't always win in a single game.
Who's going to win the defacto Eastern Conference Finals?
Thanks for reading!