Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Dallas Stars:
1. A heavyweight clash It has been an up and down year for the Stars – you'll recall a high-ranking official in the front office publicly shredding Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin – but the ship sure seems to be righted. They're sitting comfortably in a playoff spot (Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic gives them a 96% chance of making it) and are playing perhaps their best hockey of the season. They just steamrolled the Winnipeg Jets in their own building and, over the last 10 games, have posted really encouraging 5v5 numbers controlling 52.09% of the attempts (9th) and 56.73% of the chances (4th).
The Flames have been one of the league's best 5v5 teams for much of the season and that remains the case. They lead the league with a 57.81 Corsi For% over the last 10 and sit 3rd with an equally dominant 57.62 Scoring Chance For%.
I know the Flames blew up their lines, which could drastically change things, but I expect we'll see a well-played game from each team at full-strength.
2. Blender Mode The Flames are a very good bet to win the division. As such, they have the luxury of using the final few games to experiment (within reason). They're certainly doing that tonight.
While I think some of the lines Bill Peters came up could work, I do have serious concerns about the third unit. James Neal is a dependent player who essentially does nothing but shoot. This year, he's not even doing that well. Sean Monahan is also somewhat dependent, although to a lesser extent, and right now it looks like he can barely hold a hockey stick. I don't imagine they'll be very much help defensively, driving through the neutral zone, or creating opportunities for others. I think Austin Czarnik can help make up for some of the latter but he's not exactly a guy who will grab the puck in the defensive zone and carry the mail up ice all night either. Maybe they'll surprise, but this strikes me as a trio that will have a short shelf-life.
3. Ben Bishop vs David Rittich We could be in for a good old fashioned goaltending duel in this one. Bishop has played lights out this season, posting a .935 save percentage at 5v5. That slots him 5th among 52 eligible goaltenders (1,000+ minutes). Big Save Dave isn't far behind sitting tied for 11th with a .929 save percentage in that game state.
Note: since every team has seemingly gone with a surprise starter of late, I should protect myself and note that Anton Khudobin has played just as well as Bishop at 5v5. Better, actually (Khudobin ranks 4th). Regardless of who Dallas starts, we should expect a quality showing.
4. Target Roman Polak Polak is many things. A top-4 defenseman is not one of them. The Stars don't have many options on the right side, though, and he has found himself consistently paired with Miro Heiskanen on the 2nd pairing as a result. To say they've struggled together is an understatement. With that duo on the ice, the Stars have controlled just 44.5% of the attempts and 45.5% of the chances over nearly 500 minutes of hockey. I'd want Johnny Gaudreau (biggest threat) or Matthew Tkachuk (best line) on the ice against that pairing as much as possible.
5. Will the 4th line hold? Andrew Mangiapane, Derek Ryan, and Garnet Hathaway are lights out together. Lights out. I'm talking 55.8 CF%, 62.8 SCF%, and a +10 goal differential over 180 minutes. The early returns with Mark Jankowski centering that line are strong, however, the sample size is very, very small. I'm interested to see how they fare without Ryan on that line. If they can still hold up, Peters can be comfortable giving Ryan more opportunity (if Monahan is injured/slumping) without worrying about ruining the 4th line in the process. Otherwise, you're patching one hole and creating another. I think the 4th line will be fine but I guess that's what this experiment is for.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Derek Ryan - Michael Frolik Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Elias Lindholm James Neal - Sean Monahan - Austin Czarnik Andrew Mangiapane - Mark Jankowski - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic Oscar Fantenberg - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Dallas (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Jamie Benn - Tyler Seguin - Jason Dickinson Mattias Janmark - Roope Hintz - Alexander Radulov Andrew Cogliano - Radek Faksa - Blake Comeau Valeri Nichushkin - Justin Dowling - Brett Ritchie
Esa Lindell - John Klingberg Miro Heiskanen - Roman Polak Taylor Fedun - Ben Lovejoy
Ben Bishop
Puck drop is just after 9:30 eastern and can be seen on SN1 and FS-SW.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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