Let’s not dance around this one. The Oilers face off against the Devils tonight and this thing is about Taylor Hall facing his old team for the first time.
Even 40 games into the season Dan Rosen of the NHL reports that Taylor Hall finds the atmosphere surrounding this game “Strange…. Hall still feels weird about the whole thing. That’s marginally better than he felt at the time of the blockbuster trade when he was angry, bitter, and shocked. I guess in a roundabout way I’m saying to Oiler fans who chant “Get over it… when I mention the biggest deal Chiarelli has made as an Oiler is that not all the players involved in the deal are over it so I don’t think it’s anyone’s business to tell other fans how to feel about it.
A great number of Oiler fans, at the behest of the team, look at that trade now as a win because of the club’s performance. Not just are the Oilers winning, but the Devils are losing. Must have been a good trade. That’s not my philosophy and it never will be, but I understand why people feel that way. Let’s try to be honest about the trade.
Taylor Hall wasn’t a perfect player by any stretch of the imagination (only Connor is perfect). He had his faults. He could be accused of trying to do too much when he was on the ice. He threw the occasionally dirty hit. He has a knack for losing time to injury. And, he apparently wasn’t nice enough to people at the bars in Edmonton. Once he even threw his water bottle down and it sprayed his head coach by accident. He was basically the worst.
But he was also Edmonton’s 2nd best player (after they drafted McDavid). He was an elite scoring winger who could produce 5v5. Edmonton’s goals for and against with him on the ice were essentially even and when he was off the ice they were a complete train wreck, an AHL caliber team. His ability to control the play with his offense also meant that his defensive statistics were the best on the team (hard to get shots against when you spend all the time in the OZ). And, he was signed long term to a value contract.
I don’t need to go into detail with the stats again because that’s been done 1000 times. We all know that he was a great player for Edmonton at a time when the franchise had nobody else.
I want to take this space right here to say that I like Adam Larsson. I think he’s made the defense better. I think he’s a top 4 defender in the NHL. I like that he’s mean. I like that he’s not afraid to get greasy in front of the net. I like Adam Larsson.
However, the Oilers traded New Jersey someone who would become their best player and New Jersey traded the Oilers someone who would become their 3rd or 4th best defender. And Edmonton’s defense is OK right now, but it isnt great. Larsson isnt behind a bunch of All-Stars. I will not be able to reconcile this when I judge the deal.
Adam Larsson does not have the same impact as an individual that Hall had. Not even the same effect but done with his defensive prowess. If anybody even suggests that Larsson has made that kind of impact then they are lying through their teeth, haven’t watched the games, or are employees of the Oilers. And that’s fine, because nobody in their right mind thought that Larsson could impact the game the way Hall could. Nobody. Not before the trade nor after it.
Of Edmonton’s 7 defenders who have played a minimum of 200 minutes 5v5 this is where Larsson ranks:
Points per 60: 7th, 0.43 P/60 Shots per 60: 6th, 3.18 S/60 Goals For Percentage: 5th, 47.4% Shots For per 60: 5th, 30.1 SF/60 Shots Against per 60: 6th, 30.6 SA/60 Shot Attempt For Percentage: 6th, 49.2%
In terms of ice time, Todd McLellan told Rob Tychkowski here that “He can play 25 minutes a night quite comfortably, and he has a lot of experience for a young defenceman…. One part of that statement is relatively true. Larsson has 314 NHL games of NHL experience. That’s roughly twice as much as his partner Klefbom and past that point where we start to know exactly what we’re getting in an NHL blueliner. That bit about Larsson being able to play 25 minutes a night is most fiction, or perhaps just guesswork on McLellan’s part.
You see, the thing is that Todd McLellan has never actually played Larsson 25 minutes or more in a game. Not once. In fact, he averages the 4th most ice time among Oiler defenders. He’s a full minute per night behind the 3rd most used defenseman and that’s because he’s ranked 5th in Shorthanded Time on Ice per game (1:46) and 5th in Power Play Time on Ice per game (0:14). He’s just not trusted very much to handle the puck and that’s going to limit the PP time.
But the team is better and Larsson is a part of that! He is. He isnt a BIG part of that, but he is definitely playing a role in the club’s overall improvement. There’s a cumulative effect of adding Larsson to a club that has a healthy Klefbom, McDavid, and Nugent-Hopkins as well as getting big steps forward from Draisaitl and Nurse. He’s part of at least 6 players who are either new, healthy, or improved this year. The combined effect of all of them being in the lineup has made Edmonton a significantly improved club year over year. In Larsson’s case, he has added a steady, defense first 20 minutes to the right side of the ice. He’s an NHL caliber defender added to a group that a year ago had too many AHL caliber defenders. It’s a low bar but it makes all the difference in the world.
The Edmonton Oilers are better today with Larsson than they were when they finished the year with Hall. Is it because they traded Hall for Larsson? I cant make that argument convincingly. I just cant. I like Larsson, his contract, and the things he does well. I will strive to judge him as a player by what he adds to the team and what his personal shortcomings are and to leave the trade out of it. I will judge Chiarelli by the trade. I think that’s fair.
LINEUP
Davidson is not ready to go yet. Same lineup as before but Puljujarvi is expected to sit (yay for development).
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl Lucic RNH Kassian Pouliot Caggiula Eberle Hendricks Letestu Lander
Klefbom Larsson Sekera Benning Russell Gryba
Talbot Gustavsson
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Hallsy. Edmonton doesn’t have to do a lot of homework when it comes to identifying what New Jersey’s best player is capable of doing. They know what Taylor Hall can do better than anyone in the NHL. He’s going to be a threat with his speed down the left side of the ice. He doesn’t need anyone to carry the puck for him, that’s his strength. Edmonton has to try to take away the easy zone entries with Hall on the ice, but at the same time that’s an invitation to get beat 1v1. Patented Hall is taking the puck high in the DZ, skating full speed into the OZ and making the cross ice pass to the trailing man. He’s a physical forward and over an 82 game season his point pace is 70. He wont hit that because of injury, but that’s the kind of impact he has on the game when he’s healthy. He’s leading the Devils in scoring despite having played 9 fewer games than the guy in 2nd place.
2) Severson. The New Jersey blueline is without its most stable player in Andy Greene and they were thin to begin with. On paper their defense reads like an Oiler blueline circa 2009-2015. It’s ugly. The line shining light is Damon Severson. He’s their highest scoring rearguard by a mile with 20 points on the season and he’s 2nd on the D in TOI/G. The 22 year old right shooting defenseman is in his 3rd NHL season and taking a big jump in his development. He’s a leader in some important categories like CFRelTM and Shots Against per 60, but he also has a 95.7 PDO so he’s sitting at an awful -23. If someone could convince the Devils that Severson is part of the problem in New Jersey they could stand to profit greatly. If Edmonton can neutralize the young man then they should be able to expose the thin depth behind him.
3) Eberle’s Skills. If there’s a player in the lineup who needs to find a spark, it’s Jordan Eberle. The club made a pretty big gamble by keeping him ahead of Hall that he would maintain chemistry with McDavid and get a boost in scoring. It hasn’t happened. He’s on pace for his lowest ever NHL goal total. He has 8 goals in 40 games, most of which played with the NHL’s scoring (and subsequently Assist) leader Connor McDavid. He’s tracking to finish with 16 goals which would match his total from the lockout shortened 2012-2013 season, which was only 48 games long. In total points he’s still tracking to surpass 50, which is good in the modern era, but it’s not what this team expected. They wanted and needed more from him. Maybe seeing his former linemate on the other side of the ice sparks something in him. Final note, that shooting coach he hired should probably live out the rest of his days in hiding.
Puck drops tonight at 5PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!
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