The Calgary Flames will be very active this off-season. That much we know. What we don’t know is which path they’ll take while making moves.
Is the goal to retool on the fly and compete sooner than later, or is this a multi-year plan?
The answer there being murky makes this list a little harder to make but, at any rate, I’m going to look at five items that should be on GM Brad Treliving’s off-season to-do list.
1. Find a long-term center Calgary’s organizational depth chart doesn’t look too great down the middle. Up top we have Sean Monahan, a very inconsistent scorer who brings little else to the table when not stuffing the scoresheet. At this point it’s pretty clear he is not enough of a play driver, or strong enough defensively (please don’t cite faceoff percentage), to be labeled a quality 1C.
Mikael Backlund is really solid at both ends but he will be 32 pretty early on in the 2020-21 campaign. Derek Ryan is a journeyman depth piece, and Mark Jankowski will never be close to the player he was ‘projected’ to be by then GM Jay Feaster (a high-upside offensive center).
Due to the difficulty of this task, Treliving may not be able to accomplish it this summer. I could definitely see a scenario where the Flames move Sean Monahan in a trade addressing another need and end up shifting Elias Lindholm to center next season. And I’d be fine with that.
But running back the same four down the middle would be a failure to me.
2. Trade Mark Giordano Let me preface this by saying I’m on Team Trade Giordano if the plan is to retool rather than contend over the next couple of years. Trading Giordano is a no brainer should that be the case.
He will be 37 soon, is only under contract for two more seasons, and is coming off his worst year – in terms of Goals Above Replacement – since 2008-09.
He is still an excellent player but, for the first time, he finally showed *some* sign of age last season. If the Flames are resetting things, they need to move Giordano before his decline in 2019-20 turns into a trend rather than a blip.
They could no doubt fetch a quality haul for Giordano – he is only a year removed from a Norris Trophy victory – that could really accelerate the retooling that appears necessary.
I understand he is a great person, and leader, to have around for younger players, but the pieces that could be fetched in a trade would add more value to the team in a couple years – when they could be on the upswing again – than a 39-year-old Giordano.
3. Go long-term with Andrew Mangiapane The 24-year-old was quietly a beast in his first full NHL campaign. He tallied 17 goals and 32 points in 68 games, which equates to ~20 goals and ~39 points.
Most of the damage was done at 5v5. Mangiapane averaged a team-leading 2.02 points per 60 in that game state – 1st line efficiency.
Mangiapane was clearly productive offensively while serving as one of the team’s best play drivers and forecheckers. He drew a lot of penalties, too.
Simply put, he brought a ton of value to the table across the board. There is a reason Evolving-Hockey.com had him worth +11.7 GAR, more than notables like Dylan Larkin, Nik Ehlers, Anze Kopitar, and Jonathan Toews.
Mangiapane is an RFA, didn’t post eye-popping counting stats (traditionally what gets you paid), and he was a late round pick. I think all of that could lead to him signing for less than he’s worth. That’s why Treliving would be smart to lock him up long-term right now.
Evolving-Hockey projects Mangiapane to get ~$3 million per on a four-year deal. I’d be pushing to get up to six years in, say, the $4 million range. I think Mangiapane is worth it right now and, if the counting numbers pop just a little more, he’ll be universally looked at as a steal for the duration of a new deal.
4. Make a firm decision in goal Dustin Wolf is a very promising goaltender. In saying that, he is heading back to Everett in 2020-21 and will likely need at least a year of seasoning in the AHL after turning pro.
He could very well be the goaltender of the future but he still needs time to grow. Even after making the jump, it’d be unfair to throw 50+ starts on his plate from the get go.
The Flames are going to need a stable, competent goaltender to pair with Wolf down the road.
That’s why it is important for the Flames to find a multi-year solution in goal right now. They’ve been playing musical chairs, with mostly underwhelming results, for far too long.
Karri Ramo was supposed to be the guy. Then Brian Elliott. Then Mike Smith. Then David Rittich. Now, they don’t appear sold on him, either. He doesn’t have term on his contract, and the Flames gave the net to somebody else when the games mattered most.
Are they going to give Talbot an extension and walk away from Rittich after next season? Are they going to run it back with Rittich and hope he can be the stop-gap until Wolf is ready? Are they going to bring in another external option (they’re rumored to have interest in Matt Murray)? There are a ton of balls up in the air.
I just hope the Flames stick with whatever plan they come up with. At some point you need to find some stability.
5. Walk away from Travis Hamonic Seemingly everybody on Calgary’s defense is on an expiring contract and headed for free agency. I think the plan is to let most of them walk. I just hope Hamonic isn’t one of the exceptions.
His reputation far outweighs the value he actually brings to the table. He’s not going to provide much (any?) offense and his defensive game has fallen off a cliff over the last couple years. He’s routinely walked by opposing forwards with speed and his in-zone results leave a lot to be desired.
In 2019-20 the Flames allowed shots, chances, and goals at a higher rate with Hamonic on the ice than any of their top-5 defenders. In some cases the differences were astronomical.
Calgary conceded 3.35 goals per 60 with Hamonic out there at 5v5. By comparison, Hanifin finished 2nd to last with 2.84 goals against per 60. That’s a large gap.
Hamonic is very clearly declining and he plays a rugged style that will only make that process uglier. Considering he is also quite injury prone, the Flames should walk away without thinking twice.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com Recent posts: