Throughout these playoffs I have been tracking two ways to predict the outcome of the series…let’s see how they did in round 2...
#1. Matchups I have been tracking this for years, so I know it works. The road a team has to the Cup ALWAYS matters. If you base the winner on the teams versus each other over their last 10 games you would beat the pundits more than you would lose.
Results for round 3: Both Winners Correct. Results so Far: Correct: 11, Wrong: 3
#2. Special Teams/Goalies This was one I always wanted to try. I have always believed that in the playoffs, the team with the better goalie and the better power play wins... Results for round 3: Correct 1 (Pittsburgh) Results so Far: Correct: 7, Wrong: 7
#3. Predictions based on my gut This is always the one that you DON'T want to evaluate! Results for Round 3: Correct 1 ( I had Nashville and Ottawa) Results so far: Correct: 6, Wrong: 8
So how about the Stanley Cup Final?
#1. Matchups
This year the teams split, but Pittsburgh has won 8 of the last 10 games.
Matchup Winner: Pittsburgh
#2. Special Teams/Goalies
At this point we are three rounds in and starting our fourth, so as opposed to looking at the Goalies, Power play and PK during the season I am going to go with the playoffs...
Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa Goaltending: Nashville: 1 (1.81 GA/GP) Pittsburgh: 5 (2.32 GA/GP) Power Play: Nashville: 12 (14.9%) Pittsburgh: 3 (25%) Penalty Kill Nashville 4 (88.1%) Pittsburgh:8 (85.5%) Total Score: Nashville:5.66 Pittsburgh: 5.33 Winner: Pittsburgh
#3. Predictions based on my gut
I can honestly say that I have NEVER been more excited for a Stanley Cup Final...and this is my 12th in a row I have covered..This is such great matchup, and I am so happy for the Preds organization and fans...
The other part of this final I absolutely love is I honestly feel that each team is about to face their toughest test so far of the playoffs...
On the Penguins...
Strengths: Offensive firepower, Character, tons of experience... Weaknesses: Inconsistency in their own end at times. Injured players all over the place..some playing still.
The Penguins have seen it all. They have stared down two seven games series in a row and almost lost to Ottawa in game 7 OT..despite the fact that they were obviously the "better team"...Being the "better team" is something Anaheim also felt they were against Nashville and we saw how that went.
The difference between Anaheim and Pittsburgh is Anaheim hasn't found a way to win in the playoffs, and lately, Pittsburgh hasn't found a way to lose. The Penguins are at their toughest when all looks against them. They are a confident bunch that believes they can win in any circumstance.
On the Predators...
Strengths: Rinne and an incredible defense. Timely scoring. Dominating third periods. Laviolette's record versus Penguins. Weaknesses: Injuries to key scorers.
A fellow reporter, who has covered many of these playoffs in Nashville, recently said to me, "The Predators and their fans are 100% convinced they are going to win the Stanley Cup." It doesn't matter who they throw the jersey over. They are getting huge contributions from players who most of us probably didn't even know before the playoffs...
Chris Kunitz was asked about the Predators a few minutes after scoring in Game 7 versus Ottawa and he summed it up perfectly. "They have 4 Karlssons and an incredible goalie." He also noted the Preds would skate and play a more open style that that of Ottawa...A style the Penguins HATED to face...I am not sure he is right on the second point...
So what happens?
The Predators have shown an ability to play both as an attack team AND a counter attack team...and do so with huge success. So far the Penguins have played two attack teams (Columbus and Washington) and one counter attack team (Ottawa) The Penguins don't love playing against counter attack teams...Why?
Because deep down I have always believed the Penguins are at their best and most frustrating when they are the team on the counter attack. The Penguins love to make attack teams nervous and quickly strike them. By playing this way, Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel can make people crazy and the Penguins defense doesn't get exposed...
The Predators will likely NOT attack the Penguins, but will that be enough to win this series?
I am not sure..The Preds survived the injuries in the last series, but the holes were starting show as it got further along..Game 6 was dominated by the Ducks and the Preds won't be able to steal an entire series..
The key is Pekka Rinne and the emotion of Nashville...
This series will be crazy close and will see 7 games...
My pick?
Preds in 7
ENJOY THE GAME!