So the first round was amazing. In every way. It Always, ALWAYS is. But this year….WOW. But as upsets, miraculous victories, and angry coaches fade into the spring what we are left with is honestly some of the more fascinating and weirder matchups ever. Three of these matchups have NEVER occurred in the playoffs previously. Only NJ and Carolina have ever met each other throughout Whalers, Rockies, Devils, Hurricanes history..
Lets start with the matchup that no one saw coming…
EXACTLY what will happen in Toronto vs Florida.
These two teams are oddly similar…
* They each advanced, despite only winning 1 home game in the first round.
* They each won multiple Road Overtime games. Florida 2, Toronto 3.
* They both managed to dig deep late in games despite long stretches of being outplayed.
* They both love to win 6-5 games, but both worked hard to learn how to win close/low scoring playoff games. And showed it in round 1.
* They both showed an amazing ability to pull themselves off the mat….never giving up.
* They are both led by Russian goalies, each of which were questioned ALOT.
* They both were led by defensemen stepping up into stardom. Riley and Montour were both incredibly clutch.
* Both cities are populated by ALOT of Canadians.
When you look at the season series…it was all Toronto…sort of. The Leafs went 3-0-1. And the highly publicized Maurice explosion came in Toronto…So you are thinking the Leafs dominated…They did…in one of the games…6-2. But the other three games went into OT. Leafs 5-4, Leafs 2-1, Florida 3-2.
They played 4 times this year. Three of those games happened in the last 40 days.
The Leafs are loaded with star power. Matthews, Marner, and Tavares all took turns being difference makers in the first series. They have some gritty players but could use more. O’Reilly really mattered.
The Panthers are loaded with the kinds of hard to play against players like Tkachuk and Bennet and Gudas. The Panthers stars are under the radar, but they are highly effective. There biggest offensive star, save Tkachuk, is Barkov…who is the most talented defensive forward in the series.
Samsonov was very good against the Panthers this year.
Samsonov on the Capitals was eliminated in the playoffs by the Panthers last year.
So what happens?
I believe tonight will start off a little slow. There was just so much emotion for both of these teams winning the way they won round 1. It could be hard for these teams to get going right off the bat, and this could be where Panthers could sneak in and steal this series. The first two games in Toronto are an opportunity for Florida. Leaf fans will be nutso tonight and its quite possible the Leaf players will want to impress them and come out flying. And be less responsible.
The Panthers will counter attack Toronto all day long if Toronto attacks them like that. That is the Panthers game.
The previous series factor….
Something I do subscribe to is how teams deal with a new team after 6 or 7 games against one team.
What the Panthers will notice about Toronto… The Leafs are faster than Boston, but not nearly as sound defensively. The Panthers has to work very hard to get chances against the Bruins. None of the Leafs Dmen are like a McAvoy.
What the Leafs will notice about the Panthers… They are not Tampa. In fact they were built to beat Tampa. The Panthers second and third effort will frustrate the Leafs. There was no one like Tkachuk or Bennet. No one quite like Barkov.. Oh, and Lundell is turning into a star before our eyes..
What happens…
The Leafs have beaten their ghosts and made it to the second round…Finally. Usually people say that once you get past that first hurdle it will all get easier. But these are the Leafs. It never gets easier. And in reality if they think this is going to be easier, or if they are relieved they aren’t playing the Bruins, they will NOT win this series. If they fall into the belief that “the road to Cup has been swept clear with the Bruins and Rangers being eliminated, they will not win this series.
They need to realize the Panthers had tons of injuries and worked on their game. They proved they weren’t an eight seed in beating the Bruins. They are a better version of Last season’s Presidents Trophy Winning team.
The Leafs are the hardest team to predict. They tend to beat teams that are better and lose to teams they should beat. The Buzztron was 62% at picking winners, but only got the Leafs right 42% of the time.
The Panthers are playing with house money. They were the favorites last season. As much as the Leafs are thrilled Boston was eliminated, the Panthers are thrilled the Lightning were eliminated. Both teams should start tonight by thanking each other…
My pick? Incredibly close.
Toronto in 7.
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— Michael Augello (@MikeInBuffalo) January 5, 2021