As the season approaches its midway point, the Tampa Bay Lightning remain a bit of a question mark. I wrote recently about the impact that Andrei Vasilevskiy has had on keeping this group afloat, and I think it’s worth exploring this idea further. Despite sitting at the top of the Central Division standings, the Bolts have been a very average hockey club relative to their divisional foes. That needs to change come playoff time.
The first things to look at with respect to performance this year are five-on-five shot attempt share and five-on-five expected goal share, neither of which paint the Lightning in a particularly “elite… light:
As mentioned above, these metrics make the Lightning look… okay. They aren’t the worst team in the division, but they aren’t the best team in the division either. They sit on the right side of the 50% threshold, but don’t exactly look like a juggernaut.
Zooming in on the expected goal share, there are a few things we can learn about what the Bolts are creating and giving away, relative to their peers:
It’s not exactly a surprise to see that the Lightning are doing a better job of creating expected goals than most of the rivals, considering the talent they have available at the top of their lineup. What is a bit surprising, though, is that they are giving up more opportunities than a number of “lesser… teams. This isn’t the structured threat that Tampa was known to be during the last playoff run; this is a team that creates a lot, but gives up a lot at the same time. That’s a tough strategy to run with when things tighten up in the postseason.
So, what’s allowing the Lightning to do more than tread water with these numbers? Like the last blog said, it’s Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning are playing with a five-on-five save percentage that sits well above that of their divisional opponents. That’s the difference right now.
Relying on good goaltending is fine when you have the best goaltender in the league, but it would be nice to see the Lightning return to their 2020 postseason form. That saw them create a comparable number of expected goals for themselves, while limiting opponents much more effectively than they have this season:
The good news for the Lightning is that they’ve shown they can get the job done before. Righting the ship won’t necessarily be easy, but there’s no reason to think that this group can’t turn up the heat when the stakes are raised.
As always, thanks for reading.