With training camp around the corner, I thought I would get back to the top-23 off-season questions. Today's revenge is a dish best served (somewhat) cold by the 'Canes prompted which question to cover. I will do my best to link today's offer sheet to that question, though it should be pretty obvious.
Here is the question:
8) Vincent Trocheck is a free agent after the 2021-22 season, given how his game has rebounded, could he be an option if Jack Eichel and Aleksander Barkov are not acquired or signed?
We've tendered an Offer Sheet to Jesperi Kotkaniemi pic.twitter.com/4Mmw3n4DVr
— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) August 28, 2021
In a clear response to Montreal signing Sebastian Aho to an offer sheet two years ago, Carolina decided to respond on Saturday by inking Jesperi Kotkaniemi to one with the tweet all but mirroring the language used when the Habs inked Aho. GM Marc Bergevin tried to pry away Aho with a five-year, $42.27M contract, a deal matched by the 'Canes and one honestly that was way too low and did Carolia a huge favor, enabling the team to lock up Aho at a reasonable rate. Owner Tom Dundon and the 'Canes submitted a one-year and $6.1M offer sheet, which included a $20 signing bonus (Aho's jersey number) for Kotkaniemi.
Les Hurricanes ont annoncé aujourd’hui avoir déposé une offre hostile au joueur autonome avec restriction Jesperi Kotkaniemi des Canadiens de la Montreal. L’entente proposée est d’une durée de un ans et d’une valeur annuelle moyenne de 6,1 millions $.
— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) August 28, 2021
Karine Hains spelled out what could transpire next nicely in her blog: "The Canadiens have seven days to either match the offer or accept the compensation provided for in the collective bargaining agreement: a first round one and a third round one. Carolina has become quite a good team over the years and a Carolina first round pick is almost a second round one for all intents and purposes… That would be a small compensation for seeing a 3rd overall pick skate away. I should also add that the Canes did their homework, if the offer had been for $6.166 million or more, they would have had to give up first, second and third round picks."
Now comes the fun. If Montreal does not match, that leaves Jake Evans as the second-line center, unless the team moves Jonathan Drouin back to the middle. Presuming that is what happens, then don't be shocked if they make a big play for Jack Eichel. If Montreal does match, that means next season, as an RFA without arb rights, Kotkaniemi’s qualifying offer will have to be at least in the same $6.1M amount. With Nick Suzuki an RFA next season and likely to get a big money, long-term deal, Kotkaniemi may just be one more and done for the Habs. One other key factor is, if GM Marc Bergevin matches the offer, it would put the Habs about $2 million over the cap even factoring in the LTIR relief for Shea Weber at $7.86 million. But with Paul Byron out until early-2022 after hip surgery, the team has that LTIR option available initially.
If Carolina lands Kotkaniemi, he would slot in on their third line at left wing with center taken up by Aho, Trocheck and Jordan Staal. The salary would push the 'Canes over the salary cap, by $1.523 milion, necessitating a move. You would think given their depth on D, Ian Cole, who they just signed a month ago, on July 28, would be the one to go, as no one is taking on Jake Gardiner with two years with a $4.05 mil AAV without a hefty sweetener, though could potentially just waive him. They likely stayed under the 6.166 million or more threshold figuring Montreal is more likely to match if they only were receiving a first and third round picks rather than first, second and third rounders. Personally, if you wanted to cause real pain, why not wait until next year when Suzuki was an RFA or in two years when Cole Caufield is one.
How does this impact Trocheck? This season, likely not at all, as he is leaps and bounds beyond Kotkaniemi as a player. Next season, though, the six-year, $28.5 million contract extension he signed with the Panthers in July of 2016 expires, making him a UFA.
Trocheck scored 75 points in 2017-18, but suffered a significant ankle injury in 2018-19, resulting in a major drop in production that season and the following one. He was dealt to Carolna just before the trade deadline in 2020, but didn't regain his form until last season. The 28-year-old finished second on Carolina with 43 points, and his 17 goals represented his best output since tallying a career-high 31 scores in 2017-18. He is also an adept faceoff man who won a career-high 56 percent of his draws last season while posting over 100 hits for the sixth straight season. Think he would fit in well in Gerard Gallant's system and with the Rangers' new-found focus on physical play?
I am sure Carolina will try and keep Trocheck, and even if Kotkaniemi is a Cane this season, he may not be back in 2022-23. But if Kotkaniemi is in Carolina and the team does want to try and hold on to him, which per Elliotte Friedman, the team is aware of the cost and might sign him long-term at an AAV below $6.1 million, maybe, just maybe Trochek makes it to free agency. Trocheck with a good year will have a ton of suitors. If New York fails to acquire Eichel and Barkov proves not to be an option, because he remains in Florida, then Trocheck would be a very nice fall back option.