Wednesday night will mark the Senators 30th game of the season, and with on off day it might be time for a little reflection.
Sitting 2nd in the Atlantic Division is a decent feat. It is tough to explain that standing given the underlying numbers, but that has been the way the Senators have gone through the past two or three seasons. More often than not they seem to win games they have no business winning in or being in, and when they actually do play better than their opposition and deserve to win, they find a way to cough it away.
This team has faced a lot of adversity, some avoidable and some unavoidable, so it can be difficult to come down too hard on the club, but I think all most Senators fans are looking for is consistency. In terms of effort and results, winning the ones you should win and putting their best game forward in ones the probably shouldn't. Not once in a while but night in and night out.
It starts at the top, with Bobby Ryan. Sure, the finger injury has hampered his play, but if he is in the lineup he has to show effort as the highest paid forward, and that isn't happening. Other than a play here and there (the pass to Ryan Dzingel in Anaheim for example) or the odd hit, I can't remember the last time I watched a game and said the Ryan is having a positive impact.
Derick Brassard didn't click with Ryan early on, which is primarily why he was brought in as a left-handed centre to feed Ryan. Brassard has found chemistry with Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, who have been playing lights out and it could be argued they have carried Brassard along in this hot streak.
Kyle Turris has done his best, but with the two best wingers on the team playing with Brassard, he has had to carry an underachieving Ryan (when he is in the lineup) and a fringe but improving top 6 forward in Dzingel. When Ryan hasn't been able to go, the lack of depth is discouraging and Turris is pretty much on an island.
The bottom 6 has actually been pretty decent, giving them what they need on most nights. The fact is that with almost nothing in the last month and a half from Ryan, and nothing at all from the injured Clarke MacArthur, the Senators are playing with essentially four top 6 forwards, and that isn't a recipe for success over the long term in this league. And that is doubled down when anyone decides to take a night off like they did on the final game of the road trip in Anaheim.
On the blue line, the lack of depth is even more evident. Say what you will about Mark Borowieki and where he should be on an NHL depth chart, the fact is that nobody has been able to unseat him from a roster spot. Ditto Chris Wideman. The fact is that Freddie Claesson hasn't been any better, and in a limited audition Andreas Englund showed some potential but he simply isn't ready. Ben Harpur was called up and will play Wednesday with Borowiecki still having one game left to serve in his suspension and Wideman questionable after taking a puck in the face against the Ducks.
After a shaky start, Dion Phaneuf and Cody Ceci have been better of late. Erik Karlsson has been Erik Karlsson and then some, despite the bit of a leash that Guy Boucher seems to have on him at times in the new system . But take one of the top 4 away, like the injury to Marc Methot, and the house of cards comes tumbling down, because the gap is pretty wide between them and their replacement.
The only saving grace, perhaps remarkably, has been the play of Craig Anderson in trying times and also that of Mike Condon when Anderson has had to step away. How long that can last is the question, because Anderson hasn't been getting reps and there is no word on his return, and Condon might someday realize he is Mike Condon and fall back to earth. It hasn't been perfect, but I don't think you could point to more than three or four games of the 29 they have played so far where goaltending cost the Senators two points.
So all in all, the Senators have managed to navigate their way through the first 30 games (as of Wednesday) in a good spot. They have had a relatively favorable schedule and that will get tougher (as witnessed by the last week) and the big question is whether when the going gets tough, if the Senators are tough enough (and not in a pugilistic but more of a mental way) to get going.
I don't want you to think it is all doom and gloom though. Not many people outside of the Senators bubble would have even expected them to be in the spot they are, and quite frankly there is still room for improvement. I don't think Boucher's system is fully implemented yet to the point he wants it to be. Whether he has the horses to run that system has yet to be determined, but some aspects have been very positive.
Whether they can hang on to a playoff spot or not, with a pack of teams on their tales, remains to be seen. But where they are now is better than the alternative and it is usually easier to run the race from near the front. So while looking at each of the parts might leave something to be desired, and there have been some setbacks, they have put themselves in a positive position and the whole seems to be more than the sum of its parts so far.
There are a lot of fanbases that would trade spots with that of the Senators at this point in time. There is room for growth, and Boucher's task is to find the best way to get that growth with this group.