McKenna vs. Stenberg: A Draft Dilemma for the Toronto Maple Leafs
With the dust having settled on an utterly shocking NHL Draft Lottery, the Maple Leafs hold the 1st overall pick for the first time since 2016. Now, they have an important decision to make regarding who to use that selection on, and things may not be as clear cut as some would have you think.
Mike's take:
History has a way of repeating itself, and looking back to the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, there were a lot of questions as to whether the Maple Leafs would draft Auston Matthews following a tremendous year in the Swiss-A league in Zurich, or young Finnish superstar Patrik Laine, fresh off of a championship with Tappara Tampere in SM-liiga.
Naturally, Matthews was the correct decision, and his three Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophies and Olympic Gold Medal are clear evidence of that. However, a decade later, the Leafs are facing an equally important decision -- possibly even more important when you consider where the team is right now, pondering a massive re-tool rather than the rebuilding club who had nowhere to go but up back in 2016.
McKenna and Stenberg Giving the Maple Leafs Something to Think About
There is plenty to be thrilled about right now in Toronto after a very disappointing 2025-26 campaign, which led to the team missing the playoffs for the first time in the Matthews era. Winning the Draft Lottery gives them another elite piece to add to a group that desperately needs a boost, especially following the departure of Mitch Marner and the massive fumble by former GM Brad Treliving to not bring in a suitable replacement.
Unlike in 2016, the Maple Leafs are in search of a quick turnaround, and while Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg are both bursting at the seams with potential and capable of stepping right into the NHL, the team needs to decide whether to go with the high-octane offensive game of McKenna or the steady, smart, two-way play of Stenberg.
In this article, myself and my good friend Jay on Leafs will be on opposing sides, arguing the case for who we believe the Maple Leafs need to draft and why. His vote? Stenberg. Mine? McKenna.
Why McKenna Over Stenberg?
Now, I want to be very clear about the fact that none of this is an indictment on Stenberg, who is a fantastic player in his own right. This is more of a feather in McKenna's cap for what he can bring to the table, which is another player that the opposing team needs to worry about having to contain.
Following the Leafs' winning lottery ticket, Sportsnet's Jason Bukkala came forward to suggest that Stenberg, not McKenna, was the right pick for the team. His reasoning? The fact that McKenna does not have a strong defensive game, though he did mention that his game is improving in that area. When Bukkala compared McKenna to Stenberg, he suggested that McKenna may finish over 100 points, but could end up with a 0 +/- rating, whereas Stenberg may cap out at 80 points, but be a +25 player due to his superior two-way game.
My argument? Well, that's simple. We saw what happened when the Leafs abandoned their high-octane offense for more of a responsible two-way game. They had trouble scoring enough goals to win close games. It's not difficult to see why I'm leaning McKenna, who not only notched 129 points in 56 games in his final year of Junior hockey, but followed that up with a 38-point playoffs in just 16 postseason games with the Medicine Hat Tigers en route to a WHL Championship. The Whitehorse, Yukon native also set a WHL record, recording points in 54-straight games in 2024-25.
Some pundits had doubts about whether McKenna would be as dominant once he got to college, playing against bigger, stronger players in the NCAA. Well, the 18-year-old has silenced critics in spectacular fashion, producing 51 points in 35 games in his freshman year at Penn State. He also captured a school record, popping off for 8 points in a single game against Ohio State back in February.
Granted, McKenna will need a year to adjust to the speed and intensity of the NHL game, but that game-breaking ability is certainly there, and when you're down a goal late in a game, you're not trying to shut the game down, you're relying on skill to come through, and McKenna has it in spades.
Looking back over the years at the projected first overall draft picks versus the eventual second or third overall draft picks, there haven't been a lot of cases where the top guy has been outproduced by the players drafted beneath him. And consider this if you will; what if the San Jose Sharks had drafted Artyom Levshunov or Beckett Sennecke over Macklin Celebrini in 2014. This is an exaggeration, for sure, but you get my point.
McKenna is the top-ranked prospect for a reason and the Leafs need to avoid overthinking this one and just take the stud. Figure out the rest later. Sign defensively responsible players in free agency. Address other key needs via the trade market. If the Leafs pass on McKenna, they may regret it. Just my two cents.
Why Stenberg Over McKenna?
Jay's take:
The stories have already begun in Toronto. Fueled entirely by media speculation and fans alike, the running narrative being "the only reason Toronto would consider Stenberg is the Swedish connection with Sundin."
While Sundin does have extensive experience watching Stenberg, Sundin deserves a lot more credit than certain individuals are giving him. I personally believe that if Sundin were to push for Stenberg, it is only because he genuinely feels he is the best player available.
Since the Maple Leafs secured the first overall pick in the NHL Draft Lottery, I’ve spent time watching additional film, talking to scouts, and researching both Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg. Admittedly, even with how bad things got in Toronto this year, I never once imagined the Leafs having a chance to draft either of these players. While I’ve wavered back and forth on the two players up until this point, I now feel comfortable saying that Ivar Stenberg is the right pick for the Maple Leafs.
My argument? It comes down to the foundational skill sets of his game.
When evaluating the top of this draft class, you are splitting hairs between future superstars. Without question, McKenna undoubtedly carries the higher offensive upside, he also likely has a higher ceiling, and when he is fully dialed in, he is the most exciting player to watch on the ice.
Stenberg is right on McKenna’s heel with the 2nd largest production upside in the draft class. Stenberg is also a high-end playmaker who doesn't rely on flash, he also drives play effectively and does so against professionals in the SHL. You don’t have to look any further than his 5v5 analytics in the SHL, which are some of the best seen by a draft eligible prospect. Stenberg is consistently helping to tilt the ice in his team’s favor, while doing so as a boy amongst men.
What separates Stenberg from McKenna for me is the maturity of his skills. Stenberg without question is one of the best puck protectors outside of the NHL, a skill that would immediately translate to the NHL game.
Stenberg already plays the game with the refinement of an NHL veteran. He brings a level of aggression to both his forechecking and backchecking game, while always ensuring he is engaged in every single play, even after the puck leaves his stick.
Of the two however, Stenberg is the much better all-around player. While he isn’t a Selke candidate, he is already playing in all situations including the powerplay and penalty kill. While it’s unlikely he’ll transition to an NHL penalty kill, his defensive game is nothing to be scoffed at.
But when comparing him to McKenna, Stenberg’s "average" label is a significant upgrade. McKenna's game is based entirely around offensive brilliance. While McKenna comes with real defensive liabilities, Stenberg does not. Of the two players Steberg’s floor is much higher and he presents with a skillset any NHL coaching staff can work with.
When it comes to both Stenberg and McKenna, we are talking about the two best players in the class who are on the exact same tier and destined to be both be future superstars in this league. But when you factor in the elite puck protection, the SHL analytics, and the pro-level aggressiveness off the puck, Stenberg makes me far more excited as a foundational piece for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
What's Next for the Maple Leafs?
On June 26th in Buffalo, the Maple Leafs will step to the podium first and have an opportunity to pick who they feel is the best player in the draft. Who do you think that should be?