The Myth of the 34 Decline: Why Auston Matthews’ "Regression" is a Coaching Choice, Not a Career Curve
There is no NHL market where the local sports media is as quick to undermine the team it relies upon for its own relevance. While reporters in other cities happily carry water for their teams, in the shark infested waters of Toronto sports, narrative is king. So, when the greatest goal scorer since Alex Ovechkin shows even a hint of a struggle, which, in this city, simply means anything less than perfection, the vultures immediately begin to circle. Almost on cue, the media manufactures narratives about "wear and tear," questions his heart, and inevitably drops the most dangerous word in hockey: regression.
If you’re a fan panicking, or a rival General Manager salivating at the idea of a ‘buy low’ trade opportunity, I have one word for you: Stop.
While I understand, the numbers don’t lie. I also understand those same numbers require significant context. If you look at pure production rates, yes, Auston’s point totals have slowed from the 69-goal season in 2023-24. If you look further at his usage, it becomes obvious that Matthews hasn’t regressed at all. He’s being suppressed. The ‘regression’ fans are seeing isn’t a failure by the player, it is a product of the deliberate and calculated result of Craig Berube and his coaching philosophies.
The "Chief" Factor: A History of Smothering Stars
To better understand why Matthews is struggling to find the back of the net at his usual clip, look no further than the man behind the bench. Berube is a Stanley Cup champion for a reason, his systems work. But they work by turning thoroughbreds into workhorses and require players to fit a square peg into a round hole.
If you look back at Berube’s time in St. Louis. He built an absolute meat-grinder of a system that won a title in 2019, after barely squeaking into the playoffs. Berube did it by demanding a "heavy" game that almost always came at the expense of high-end individual creativity. Vladimir Tarasenko, a goal scorer similar to Matthews, saw his relationship with the team begin to fracture as the system prioritized defensive structure and forechecking over elite offense. Under Berube, stars are expected to be the most responsible players on the ice first, and scorers second.
In Toronto, Berube has taken the greatest goal-scorer of this generation and asked him to instead play like David Kampf. Berube’s dump and chase style has all but neutered the Maple Leafs’ offense for anyone not named William Nylander. While Matthews has struggled to find the back of the net, Nylander has produced in spite of Berube, often ignoring current systems to make a major impact.
The Smoking Gun: The Limiting Penalty Kill Role
A piece of evidence, which may be the most damning is Berube’s choice to cannibalize Matthews’ even strength offense with his deployment on the penalty kill. There is a "sweet spot" for star players on the PK; a little bit of time can keep them in the flow of the game, but too much drains the battery and limits their EVS deployment.
Under Sheldon Keefe in 2023-24, Matthews averaged just 0:43 of shorthanded time per game. The result? He had the energy and ability to put up 69 goals, averaging 0.85 goals per game and a massive 1.32 points per game. Keefe utiltized this deployment to get Matthews favorable offensive matchups at 5 on 5, instead of asking his superstar to expend energy blocking additional shots on the PK
Enter Berube. This season, Matthews averaged over 1:10 per game on the PK, a number lower significantly by a midseason deployment change, before being returned to the PK before his injury. Over the last two years under this "defense-first" regime, his goals-per-game has dropped dramatically to 0.47.
The math is simple: When Matthews plays less than 45 seconds on the PK, he’s a threat to score almost every game, but when he’s asked to play over 45 seconds, he’s a 38-goal player. You cannot ask a player to be the league's best defensive center and its best scorer simultaneously without something having to give. Berube has chosen the defense, it the expense of his team’s offense.
Pushed to the Perimeter
Now don’t get confused, it isn't just how much he’s playing; it’s where he’s being allowed to play. Under Keefe’s more possession based system, Matthews lived in the inner slot, the place on the ice where the most goals are scored.
In 2023-24, Matthews was an absolute machine in high-danger areas, averaging 2.58 total slot attempts per game. This season, that number has decreased to just 1.93.
Berube’s system emphasizes a low-risk, north-south game. It’s about getting the puck deep and working the cycle, a system I’ve dubbed dump and don’t chase given the Maple Leafs’ overall lack of speed. A system that results in turning over possession more often than not. While Berube has shown, his system can win games in May when clutching and grabbing becomes more acceptable. It forces players like Matthews to take more medium-danger shots from the perimeter rather than the high-danger shots he feasted on previously. His High-Danger attempts have dropped from 0.76 per game at his peak to just 0.43 this year.
A player like Matthews doesn't lose the ability to find the soft ice overnight. You are coached out of it by a system that demands you stay high to cover the point or get to the wall to support a cycle.
The Myth of the Shooting Percentage Dip
Critics will point to his shooting percentage sitting around 12.6% recently, which is well below his career average, as proof of his decline. The truth is, that shooting percentage is often a reflection of shot quality and puck luck and when you aren’t allowed to get to the dangerous areas, your shooting percentage is likely to decline.
When you’re starting shifts in the offensive zone nearly 65% of the time, as Matthews did under Keefe, your shooting percentage will almost always be higher because you’re fresh and in position. Under Berube, Matthews’ Offensive Zone Start percentage has dropped nearly 7% to 58.72%. He is spending more of his energy fighting through the neutral zone just to get to the attacking end. By the time his line is generating chances, the finish isn’t as crisp and the stylistic grind is more taxing, generating less secondary chances.
This isn't a player who can no longer shoot; it’s a player who is being asked to do extra work before he gets the chance to shoot.
The Truth
If you are a fan of the Maple Leafs, like I am, don't let the numbers frustrate you. Auston Matthews is still one of the most lethal weapons in the league. He is simply being used as a shield rather than a sword.
And to any General Manager across the league who might think the Leafs' captain is entering his "plateau" phase: don't hold your breath. If Matthews were moved to a system that prioritized transition and offensive freedom, like Florida or Colorado, he would almost immediately return to a 60-plus goal pace.
The "regression" of Auston Matthews is a narrative built on a foundation of sand. His play is merely a byproduct of a coaching staff that is trying to win 2-1 games instead of 4-2. Matthews hasn't changed. His hands haven't slowed. He’s just doing the dirty work that his coach demands.
The Truth is, 34 is still a king, the only difference is, he’s just being asked to guard the gate instead of sitting on the throne. Any team or fan who forgets that is in for a very rude awakening the moment the shackles are finally taken off.