Flyers Playoff Run: What They've Gained — And How They Can Win
Part One: What This Playoff Run Means
I often get into discussions with people about tanking. When I think of tanking, I think of a handful of teams that have leaned into it deliberately. This year's Vancouver Canucks essentially admitted to doing it. In the past, the Edmonton Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Pittsburgh Penguins have all tanked seasons.
Of those teams, only one has a Stanley Cup to show for it — Pittsburgh. And that should tell you everything. Tanking is pointless.
Especially when you consider what a playoff run does for a franchise. What this team has been through this year — making the playoffs after sitting at a 3.8% chance, followed up by a series win against their rivals across the state — has been nothing short of remarkable, and the city knows it. I was walking around South Philly today, and one of my favorite parts of playoff season was on full display: the decorations families and kids put up in the windows of the row houses. Flyers logos, drawings of Gritty, orange towels, and T-shirts hanging in the windows. The city is alive for hockey again.
There is a hell of a lot of pressure on very young players — Matvei Michkov, Denver Barkey, Alex Bump, Jamie Drysdale, Cam York and of course Porter Martone...this group is likely a large part of the future core of this franchise. The experience these young players are gaining right now is beyond anything they could get playing out meaningless games in the final month of a lost season.
Whatever happens tonight, 3.8% will be remembered. There will be enormous anticipation for next season as they add more young players and continue to build on what this group has started.
Part Two: How the Flyers Can Win This Series
Down 3-0: Four Steps to the Impossible
You've probably heard the stats. In NHL history, a team has fallen behind 3-0 in a series 208 times. Only four times has a team come all the way back to win. Only nine times has a team even forced a Game 7. The Penguins came within one goal of making it ten just last series.
Beyond the obvious "one game at a time" cliché, I've always believed — and the historical record supports it — that a team has a slightly better chance of coming back when they do not have home-ice advantage in the series. The reason comes down to the two words the playoffs are mentally about.
Desperation versus Pressure.
The playoffs are driven by a lot of things, but at their core they are fueled by two enormous emotional forces that actually make hockey one of the easier sports to predict once you understand them. A few years ago, I researched every playoff game where a team won by four or more goals and looked at what happened in the very next game. The results were fascinating: 84% of the time, the team that was blown out wins the next game. We saw this just last night, with Montreal bouncing back to beat Buffalo after being dominated in Game 1.
Why? Simple. Desperation versus Pressure. Desperation helps teams wins
Pressure makes winning much harder.
In the playoffs, when two teams are relatively close in talent and neither is decimated by injuries, the team that needs to win — the desperate team — almost always finds a way. With that framework in mind, let's walk through how the Flyers could get this done.
How to Win Game 4
Flyers — Desperation: 100% | Pressure: 30% Carolina — Desperation: ~0% | Pressure: ~0%
Of the 208 times a team has been up 3-0 in a series, there have been only 126 sweeps. That means teams that fall down 3-0 have won Game 4 roughly 40% of the time. That doesn't sound logical on the surface, but in hockey it is very much true — and it is the clearest possible example of desperation versus pressure.
The Flyers have a genuine shot in Game 4. I would argue they've played better in this series as each game has passed. Game 2 went to overtime and they had plenty of chances. In Game 3, the Flyers hit six posts..all with the game within one goal.. and any one of those could have completely changed the narrative. Since the third period of Game 2, they've been right there. So let's say the Flyers win Game 4.
How to Win Game 5
Flyers — Desperation: 100% | Pressure: 10% Carolina — Desperation: 15% | Pressure: 50%
I've always said this is the toughest game to win if you're down 3-1. This is where teams that are up in a series historically make their biggest mistake... especially team is coming home, where they take game five as a game they're gonna win in front of their own fans.
The fact that the Flyers are on the road for this game is actually enormous. This is a true "nothing to lose" situation.
So let's say Carolina lets their guard down just a little, the Flyers get a few bounces, and suddenly we're headed to Game 6.
How to Win Game 6
Flyers — Desperation: 100% | Pressure: 50% Carolina — Desperation: 75% | Pressure: 100%
You can see how the scales are starting to tip. The Flyers are still in full desperation, but now the pressure is starting to rise. Riding the confidence of having won two straight, they come home to a building that isn't going to boo them because the fans know this is bordering on a historic moment, and they've been moved by how this team has clawed back from. Carolina, meanwhile, is suddenly staring at the same situation the Flyers faced last series: a potential Game 7. The critical difference? Carolina would be facing that Game 7 at home, where the Flyers were facing Game 7 every on the road last round. The pressure at home in a closeout game is suffocating in a different way.
The desperation is nearly equal at this point, but Carolina still has the cushion of knowing they can drop this game and still win the series. That cushion is a double-edged sword.
Let's say the Flyers fans find a way to will them to victory.
How to Win Game 7
Flyers — Desperation: 100% | Pressure: 75% Carolina — Desperation: 100% | Pressure: 100%
There is a reason they say anything can happen in a Game 7. The pressure on both teams is immense. The home team always carries extra weight, but if the home teams the team has blown a 3-0 the weight of history, of embarrassment, of what it would mean to let that slip away. That extra pressure has a way of putting players right on the edge.
In the end, it comes down to one question: Does desperation win out, or does pressure?
Let's Talk Percentages
The Flyers were given a 3.8% chance of making the playoffs.
In NHL history, nine teams — roughly 4.3% of the teams that have ever trailed 3-0 — have managed to force a Game 7.
So if we're talking percentages, there's a greater percentage chance that this goes to game seven then there was of the Flyers making the playoffs in late March
Four of those teams, roughly 1.9% of all 3-0 series, have gone on to win it.
But here's the number I find most compelling: four of those nine teams that forced a Game 7 won the series. That's 44.4%. Nearly a coin flip once you've made it that far.
In 2010, it took a late goal from Simon Gagné to force a Game 5 against Boston — one moment, one bounce, changing everything. That's hockey.
The bottom line for Flyers fans is this: these Flyers are playing hockey in May, in the second round of the playoffs, with an extraordinary future in front of them.
And if we have learned anything about this group, it's that desperation is something they do very, very well.