The Oilers are in position at the 2014 Draft to add yet another extremely talented youngster to the Organization and address a weakness either at the Center position or, if the stars line up, on Defense. No doubt Edmonton will be happy with whomever is available but at the NHL level the Oilers are missing a stud Defenseman and this year's highest rated Defender could be their guy. So is it possible that he could fall to number 3 where the Oil could call his name?
The answer to that is an obvious yes. I mean, anything could happen at the Draft, but beyond that it seems as though there is plenty of good historical reason to believe that the highest rated Defenseman can fall below where he is ranked. Whoever is drafting that high in the order will tell you that they take the "Best Player Available" but the reality is that Forwards are easier to project than Defensemen (and Goalies are Voodoo) so there tends to be a bias at the top of the Draft towards those Wingers and Centers who can produce a lot of points in Junior. In addition, those players tend to become impact players sooner and with Free Agency coming at 25-27 years of age, the more impact years the better.
Now I'm not making an argument for the Oilers to avoid taking Ekblad if he's available. I'm just saying those are just a few of the generalized reasons why Forwards tend to go higher in the Draft and the Oil might be able to benefit from that. And, as mentioned above, the tendency for highly rated Defenders to drop is reflected in the Historical record. I didnt want to too far into the past for this so I looked at the Central Scouting Final Rankings of the highest rated Defenders from the 2003 Draft up to the 2013 Draft. Central Scouting breaks skaters into North American and International skaters, I went with the one who was the consensus highest overall so we were dealing with the truly highest rated guy. This is the info from those Drafts.
YEAR DEFENDER RATED DRAFTED DIFFERENCE 2013 Seth Jones 1st NA 4th -3 2012 Ryan Murray 2nd NA 2nd 0 2011 Adam Larsson 1st Int 4th -3 2010 Cam Fowler 5th NA 12th -7 2009 Victor Hedman 1st Int 2nd -1 2008 Drew Doughty 2nd NA 2nd 0 2007 Karl Alzner 5th NA 5th 0 2006 Erik Johnson 1st NA 1st 0 2005 Jack Johnson 4th NA 3rd +1 2004 Cam Barker 2nd NA 3rd -1 2003 Braydon Coburn 6th NA 8th -2
Because the rankings aren't combined the results aren't perfect but it gives a pretty good indication of how easy it is for Defenders to fall. Over the span of 2003-2013 the highest rated Defensemen have:
-Dropped a total of 16 spots from their final rankings to their actual Draft position -Been Drafted higher than their Final Ranking only 1 time -Been Drafted 1st Overall only 1 time -Been Drafted exactly where they were ranked 4 times -Been Drafted lower than their Final Ranking 6 times
On average, since 2003 the highest rated Defenseman has dropped 1.45 spots from where the NHL's Central Scouting Service has them rated. So, is it possible that the Oilers could land Aaron Ekblad at number 3 despite the fact that he's rated to go 2nd? If History has anything to tell us its that the answer to that question is yes, absolutely.
From where I sit the hurdle for the Oilers to get past to land their Defenseman is Florida. When given the chance to draft 1st Overall in the past this club has done some wild things and recently they've Drafted high end forwards near the top of the order. If they have their eyes on Bennett or Reinhart then I think Ekblad will fall past the Sabres.
The Sabres just finished a historically bad season from a Goal-Scoring perspective. One has to go back very far indeed to find another team so inept in the offensive zone and I think it would be a terrible idea to Draft a Defenseman with those Centers readily available. They might opt for Ekblad and hope for McDavid next year, but it's impossible to plan that far out and (as they experienced already) finishing last is no guarantee of Drafting 1st Overall.
Ultimately I think there's every possibility that Aaron Ekblad will be there when the Oilers take the podium.
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