How good would the Oilers be if they had this kind of goaltending all year? That’s the question we are left asking ourselves right now as the final 12 games of the year mock us with their distinct lack of meaning. What would the fortune of the Oilers look like had Devan Dubnyk not run over that old Gypsy woman on his way to practice in September? With her old Romanian curses she robbed the big man of his skills and doomed the Oilers season, but now the club has solved that problem and all we’re left with are what if scenarios.
The day that the Oilers’ fortunes started to turn was January 15th. That’s the day the club acquired the 1st part of their solution in Net and since that time they’ve been picking up points at a pace that dwarfed their previous accomplishments. With Ben Scrivens in net the team finally had a stopper who was stealing them points in the standing and giving them opportunities to hang in games they didn’t deserve to be in. Once they added Fasth at the deadline they completed the transformation of their biggest weakness into their biggest strength.
So what are we really looking at though? We know they’re better from a raw numbers perspective, but it has translated into very real success. I’m talking about team success here, points. This is the measure that counts, after all, in the race that the franchise wanted to be in; the NHL playoff race.
In the Dubnyk portion of the season the Oilers played 49 games for just 35 points. We’re talking about a pace of .714 points per game. If we take that pace and apply it to the 70 games the Oilers have played we get 50 points. Based on their performance, if the Oilers stuck with the same tandem as before, we would expect the Oil to have 9 fewer points than they have right now. 50? 59? No matter which one you have it’s still bad (But better than Buffalo).
Things get a little more depressing for Oiler fans if you try to extrapolate what the Oiler season would have looked like if they had been getting solid goaltending all year though. Since the Scrivens trade the team has picked up 24 points in 21 games or 1.14 points per game. To answer the question of where would the Oilers be if they had this kind of goaltending all year, the Oilers would have 80 points in 70 games if we apply the Scrivens portion pace to the entire season.
The Oilers would be 21 points better than they are today and would currently occupy a Wild Card position. The Oilers would be a playoff team if they had quality goaltending all year.
I hope that provides more hope for the future than disappointment over the past.
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