How deep a team is in prospect depth is a popular topic and an interesting one. Prospects are the lifeblood of most NHL teams, more so now than ever because the Cap puts a premium on cheap young talent. Teams cast a wide net drafting and signing young players but not all prospects are created equal. A quick conversation the other day had me thinking about how far down the prospect list you had to go before things started to get pretty questionable.
My conclusion after thinking about it, not far at all.
It wouldn't be uncommon to see prospects lists like "The Top 25 Under 25" or more naturally a "Top 10 Prospects For X" and while one might think that given the huge number of drafted players there would be quality significantly down the list, but I really don't think that's the case. In fact, I think once we get to prospect #6 we're already at the questionable stage.
I think it's very natural to overvalue prospects because there's the hope that they blossom into star players, but once we leave "Blue Chip" territory the likelihood of these players turning into long term contributing NHLers starts to drop like a Dubnyk glove hand.
If we look at the Oilers over a number of years we can see that there is a clear distinction between the top as the cream of the crop and the rest of the prospects in the system. There are a few names that make drastic rises through the system but by and large the kids who aren't good enough to be ranked in the top 5 don't pan out to be more than placeholders in the NHL.
Here is Copper N Blue's Top 25 Under 25 from 2010. It's a solid list of the club's prospects and young players. Copper N Blue had 4 writers rank the prospects then they averaged their placement in a combined list. It's a solid system.
So in August 2010 this was their Top 10
1. Hall 2. Gagner 3. MPS 4. Eberle 5. Smid 6. Pitlick 7. Cogliano 8. Brule 9. Omark 10. Hartikainen
Kind of harsh on Cogliano but then again the GM did essentially trade him away for nothing just a few months after this, and check out MPS ahead of Eberle. He wishes.
This is a list that includes everyone under 25 years of age regardless of NHL experience and even here players 6-10 turned out to be huge busts. Pitlick is tracking to be a fringe 4th liner at best, Cogliano was jettisoned for a 2nd Rounder, and the trio of Brule, Omark, and Hartikainen are out of the league or all but.
Blech.
Well why don't we fast forward a couple years to the summer of 2012? Here is Corey Pronman's Oilers Top 10 for that upcoming year from HockeyProspectus.
1. Yakupov 2. Schultz 3. Klefbom 4. Marincin 5. Gernat 6. Zharkov 7. Musil 8. Pitlick 9. Hartikainen 10. Rieder
We see a few familiar faces that managed to stick around, but again after the top 5 we've crossed over from legit prospects to long shots and late bloomers. Musil stands a chance to get a cup of coffee in the NHL but he's getting passed over in the system all the time. Zharkov is "enigmatic" and Rieder was dumped for worse than nothing.
But that's the Oilers, maybe they're just terrible, right? I mean you don't get to scrape the bottom of the standings year in and year out by having a great developmental system so perhaps it's abnormal to be knee deep in mediocrity 6 players into your prospect pool.
So here is Pronman's Top 10 for the 2011 Detroit Red Wings whom he suggested had the BEST pool of prospects at the time.
1. Nyquist 2. Tatar 3. Jarnkrok 4. Smith 5. Almquist 6. Pulkkinen 7. Sheahan 8. Jurco 9. Marchenko 10. Mursak
From the top 5 Nyquist, Tatar, and Smith are now bonafide NHL players. Nyquist shot the lights out for 28 goals in 57 games, a pace I wouldn't bet on him keeping up but he's an NHL player today. Jarnkrok was traded to Nashville as a piece in the Legwand deal and Almquist has played 2 NHL games to date but he has decent AHL numbers. Decent enough to suggest he may have an NHL career (he's still just 5'11" and 174lbs though.
But let's take a peek at players 6-10 and their NHL totals.
Pulkkinen 3GP, 0-0-0 Sheahan 44GP, 9-15-24 Jurco 36 GP, 8-7-15 Marchenko 1GP, 1-0-1 Mursak 46GP, 2-2-4
At the bottom of the list Mursak is already well out of the NHL and playing in the KHL. Marchenko has limited Offense even in the AHL and hasn't proven himself to be a player worth watching. Jurco split his time between the AHL and NHL last year but looks like a regular starting in the 2nd half of the year. Sheahan looks to have followed the same call-up path. Pulkkinen, however, is starting to get to the point in his career where you wonder if he'll ever break through.
If that's an "Outstanding" 6-10 grouping of prospects then forgive me if I stick to my conclusion that generally by prospect 6 in an organization were already into mediocre territory.
Keep that in mind the next time someone claims X team is really deep in prospects. It's still probably just 5 prospects deep then a bunch of filler bodies who are relatively interchangeable with other team's prospects.
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