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There has been some added discussion of late with respect to the NHL draft, but this time the focus is on how the draft functions over the discussion of certain players and draft positions.
NHL GM’s who have recently wrapped up their meetings held in New York, discussed a few potential changes to the NHL; one being toward how the lottery process for the draft is weighted.
A topic which frequently resurfaces every year is the idea of “tanking… for higher draft selections, given how the lottery is currently weighted. The last place team in the regular season is awarded, per se, with a 25% chance to receive the first overall selection. The odds then work down from there, ultimately giving the worst five teams of each respective season the best chance of acquiring a very promising player.
To break things down, here is how the last 10 years worth of lottery picks have played out with respect to a team’s standing and the selection they received.
Year / Worst Team / Lotto Winner 2004 Pittsburgh Washington 2006 St. Louis St. Louis 2007 Philadelphia Chicago 2008 Tampa Bay Tampa Bay 2009 NY Islanders NY Islanders 2010 Edmonton Edmonton 2011 Edmonton New Jersey 2012 Columbus Edmonton 2013 Florida Colorado 2014 Buffalo Florida
Of the above list, 50% of the teams who ended up in last place selected first overall (make note that while NJ won the lotto in 2011, EDM still drafted first overall). Of the five teams who did not draft first overall for the years in which they placed last in the league, each team still selected 2nd overall which in most years is still a very successful draft selection.
Essentially, what the argument or issue which people in the hockey world have is that teams will intentionally, or so they claim, move down the standings as the year progresses in order to achieve high draft picks. While they may not “throw games… as it were, what has been discussed is the disinterest of GMs to try and improve their roster to any extent, as they are more or less content with suffering for a few years while they rebuild.
Now I don’t mean to get into the debate of “how a team should go through a successful rebuild…, as this is seemingly quite subjective and there is no exact science behind it. That said, what GMs are considering is changing the odds for teams so that those beyond 5th worst in any given year have a greater chance at acquiring a top pick.
By doing so, the league may reduce the odds for the 30th place team to say, something closer to 15%, and work down from there to include the top 10 worst teams. As a result, we may see more proactive GMs working each year at steadily improving their team, rather than accepting defeat and waiting to be rewarded with a high draft pick. These new methods would give better odds to teams who, despite constantly trying to succeed each year, fall short and end up with a lower draft pick and no playoffs to show for it.
With respect to providing teams with their odds of winning the lottery pick, the proposed changes would assign each team a value based off a rolling five year assessment, rather than awarding the the worst place team in the league (and so on) each respective year with the highest odd. In doing so, teams who continue to suffer would have greater chances at drafting higher, than a team who suddenly tanked.
While any potential changes to these rules may not take into effect for a few years, some feel that Bettman and the Board of Governors could table the decision as early as the 2015 NHL draft which has a lot of attention due to two young players looking to go 1st and 2nd overall.
Which brings me to the original debate – with McDavid and Eichel available to teams during the 2015 draft, there will be a few teams who are hovering around that 6-7-8th place spot who may be very interested in selling off a few players in an attempt to weaken their roster.
While the notion of intentional tanking is one that is scoffed at by GMs, given the chance to scoop up a player like McDavid may cause them to rethink their short term and long term goals.
Personally I don’t think the above suggestions from the league would be enough to change the “tank for _____… mentality expressed league wide, but it is a step in the right direction. What do you think?
Will this change anything at all? Do you feel there are better ways to address teams sitting idle in the leagues basement for a few years in order to improve their roster by default of strong draft picks?