I know that this is right up on the wire of the series commencement, but shoot the turnaround from last round to this round was instantaneous.
First off, let me get my Habs-Rags prediction out there first since they've already played game one (Ouch habs). So far I've been pretty solid in my predictions. The habs have wrecked my bracket a bit considering I had them out in the first round, but I have gone 3-for-4 in the semifinalists.
I'm sticking with the Rangers and saying they take it in 6 to go to the finals.
As for the Kings-Hawks, this one is going to be a tight one I think.
Last year the Kings were handled by Chicago in 5 games, and the Kings were fairly depleted in terms of injuries. Dustin Brown, Willie Mitchell, Jarret Stoll, and Justin Williams were all playing with fairly significant injuries. Also, star forward Anze Kopitar was slumping hard and many thought he was injured as well. No excuses though, the Kings were thwarted by the depth of the Blackhawks and the overall offensive firepower, which is always the concern when it comes to Chicago.
If you are going to break it down category by category, I can see how this one is also a coin flip. Shoot, you could say that about all the Western Conference matchups so far really.
Offense
Despite the Kings finding a tremendous amount of scoring from Gaborik and Kopitar, you almost always have to give the nod to the Hawks when it comes to offense. Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp. Need I say more? Four of the most dynamic and game-breaking forwards in the league all in the same lineup spells goals. Not to mention there are quality players like Shaw (Who is currently injured), Bickell, and Saad, then defensemen who chip in like Keith and Seabrook. When it comes to the forward depth of the Hawks though, it has been questioned a little bit in the early goings. Versteeg, Handzus, Kruger, and even Sharp haven't been up to snuff in chipping on offensively to this point. However, if the Blackhawks plan on winning it's not going to be via their offense. They will have to call upon the defense to shut it down when they need it. That being said, Chicago will still need those big guns to come out firing and break the stingy defense and goaltending of the Kings.
The Kings will need some goals from the bottom lines, no doubt. The matchups are going to be heavy on Kopitar and Gaborik, who are likely going to see a ton of Keith and Seabrook. Know what that means? Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Justin Williams, and the rest of the Kings forward corps is going to have to step up against the bottom pairings of the Hawks, which might be the biggest weakness of Chicago. Scoring depth, as always, is paramount in the playoffs. The Hawks have the out and out edge there, and the higher octane top end forwards overall. This one is an easy decision.
Edge: Hawks
Defense
The Kings are going to get the nod here, despite having a somewhat depleted group at the back end. It's possible the Kings get Mitchell back at some point in the series, but so far, they have done quite well even without the likes of Regehr and Mitchell. Jeff Schultz has stepped in and proved capable, and Matt Greene has done a solid job of limiting his negative contributions. Doughty, Muzzin, and Martinez have been pretty strong throughout the post-season, and Voynov has been a hit or miss contributor thus far. That being said, those are four very strong puck movers and two big minute-eaters for the Kings. If Muzzin can follow up a strong end to the Anaheim series and Slava Voynov can get going, the Kings defensive group matches up incredibly well to the Chicago group. The task at hand though is limiting the damage that the big guns of Chicago can inflict. They've done a good job of shutting down Thornton, Marleau, Couture, Getzlaf, and Perry, thus far... but the Hawks are a different animal.
Chicago is going to be asking their 3-6 guys to come up big in this series, like they have in every series so far. Hjalmarsson, Oduya, Leddy, Roszival, and Brookbank make up the remainder of the Blackhawks defensive group, and so far they have been iffy in terms of possession numbers. In fact, only Leddy and Rozsival are coming up with positive corsi so far in the playoffs. Even Keith and Seabrook are being out chanced when on the ice at this point. On the other side of things, the Kings have 5 of 6 defenseman in the black when it comes to corsi. Like the offense, this one is an easy decision for me.
Edge: Kings
Goaltending
Quick vs. Crawford.
Crawford has been VERY good at this point, and you could argue that he is the major reason why the Hawks advanced past Minnesota AND St. Louis. If you look at his game by game numbers, Crawford was outstanding in the St. Louis series, and in the Minny series he had a few blips on the radar. Nonetheless, he had some massive games when they needed him, like in Games 5 and 6. The question remains, can he keep it up? Everyone seems to pile on Crawford when things are bad, but he has proven capable of showing up for big games in the past. The Montreal native will just have to limit the bad goals and bad games. Helping out the Kings offense with bad or weak goals isn't going to be a recipe for success.
Quick has steadied himself after one of the worst possible starts to a post season. The end to the Sharks series was phenomenal, and the games against the Ducks were also impressive. A lot of stat watchers like to moan and groan about some of Quick's percentages in games 3-5 of the Ducks series, but there was more bad at work there then just a goaltender. Quick has made big saves and timely saves to hold the Kings in games or preserve leads. Just like Crawford, he'll have to limit the bad goals against a Hawks team that is likely going to be putting on a barrage at times. Quick can be over-aggressive at times, and we'll see if the Hawks forward try to exploit that. It's a close decision, here, but i'll give the slight edge to Quick just due to some of the miraculous and timely saves he can make. If you ask me which goaltender is more capable of stealing a game I'd say Quick over Crawford.
Edge: Kings
Special Teams
Surprisingly, the Blackhawks powerplay has been worse than the Kings. Only slightly though, but it's still kind of odd considering they were a top-10 unit during the regular season and the Kings were a bottom-5. Nonetheless the powerplay units of each respective team seem fairly even in their performances this far, and each team has a plethora of weapons. To me it's not going to be about the powerplay units but more about the penalty killers.
The Hawks have been tremendous on the kill thus far, and the Kings were picked apart by the Ducks. The Ducks series really underlined how important Mitchell and Regehr are to the LA Kings and their special teams unit. The other thing here is that the Kings have taken a STUPID amount of penalties in this postseason. With 73 minor penalties in 14 games they lead the playoffs in minors by a healthy amount. How many minor penalties have the Blackhawks taken? 46. That's a huge difference.
If you took penalties out of the Ducks series, those games weren't nearly as close honestly. In some way the Kings are masters of their own fate here. The Blackhawks have struggled to some degree on the powerplay, but if you give them a massive amount of opportunities...well...even a broken clock is right twice a day. They've been undisciplined to this point so I don't feel like that trend will turn around all of a sudden. Edge to the Hawks, but the Kings are really in control of their own destiny with this one.
Edge: Blackhawks
It's a tight series here, but I want to believe that the Kings will take this in yet another seven game series. I like how the bottom lines of the Kings matchup against the bottom pairings of the Hawks. Maybe it's a homer pick to say Kings in 7 (of course), but I could also see something like the Hawks in 6 or 7. They are better rested and have home ice advantage. But as always, there are a ton of variables in these series and predictions tend to go out the window the minute the puck drops. Neither team has been overly consistent, which makes this a tough one to pick. For now though I'll be comfortable in saying Kings in 7 just to make my New York/LA finals prediction come to fruition.
Pick: Kings in 7
What are your picks?
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