The Blue Jackets still have months before they'll need to make definitive decisions with regards to their pending UFA's. Come next July, Blake Comeau, Derek MacKenzie, Marian Gaborik, Nikita Nikitin and Curtis McElhinney can all join the ranks of UFA's assuming they are not re-signed prior. Of that group Gaborik's situation promises to be the most difficult to resolve.
Gaborik, 32 in February, is definitely in the decline stage of his career but still should have a few more seasons of high-level production left in the tank. Under the provisions of the new CBA last summer, there was no free agent forward quite like Gaborik. Most were accomplished players at the tail ends of their respective careers (Patrik Elias, Jaromir Jagr, Jarome Iginla for example) or younger players with nowhere near the track record Gaborik boasts (Valtteri Filppula and Stephen Weiss). Vinny Lecavalier is still a very good player and close to Gaborik in terms of age but since he was bought out by Tampa he was already slated to earn a nice chunk of change from the Lightning and was prepared to sacrifice a little in the AAV department in exchange for a longer term. The lack of a good free agent comparable makes it difficult to predict what Gaborik's free agent market might be eight months from now.
The Slovakian sniper is still a threat to pot 40 goals and since his bread and butter, his skating and release, seem to be unaffected much by the passage of time, he should still be a 40 goal threat for the next few seasons. For his career he has averaged 0.44 goals/game and over the last two-plus campaigns his scoring rate has been 0.41. Thirty-goal scorers are prized in free agency and Gaborik is sure to attract plenty of attention from multiple suitors. Coming off a contract that calls for an annual cap charge of $7.5MM it's unlikely Gaborik will want to or need to take much less than that on the open market.
Columbus was more than happy to acquire Gaborik and that healthy salary/salary cap hit last season as they chased a playoff berth. They desperately needed offense and Gabby was easily the most skilled player on the trade market at the deadline. Whether they would be willing to pay Gaborik market value for four or five more years is questionable.
The reality, however, is that Columbus will need a player like Gaborik in the near future. They have little in the way of young "premier scorers" at the wing position in their organization according to the Hockey's Future website. Even with Gaborik and a healthy Nathan Horton (once he joins the team on the ice) Columbus is unlikely to be among the most prolific offensive teams in the league. They certainly won't be in a position to allow a 30-plus goal threat to just walk away.
Still, there has to be concern that a multi-year deal could turn into an albatross if Gaborik's play declines more than anticipated in the coming seasons. Columbus just doesn't have the wherewithal to absorb and cover for a bad contract the likes of which Gaborik's could become. If Gaborik is re-signed but regresses to a shadow of his former self part way into his new deal the Jackets will have a tough time adding outside help to make up for that deficiency.
One thing that GM Jarmo Kekalainen has done is take care of most of his RFA business through at least the 2014 - 2015 campaign. The only RFA's to note after this season will be Ryan Johansen, Dalton Prout and David Savard. Prout and Savard shouldn't be too difficult to lock up leaving Johansen as the one possible difficult RFA negotiation. The Columbus market probably isn't able to support a cap spending team too often (they are close to spending to that level this season however) but with few players in line for RFA raises the Jackets should be able to afford to bring Gaborik back.
Anything can happen between today and next July when Marian Gaborik is scheduled to be a free agent. He could decide he loves it in Columbus and sign an extension for less than his probable UFA market value. He could suffer an injury that hurts his market next July. But as it stands today, Marian Gaborik is bound to be the most interesting free agent decision Columbus will have to make prior to the upcoming summer.
