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The painfully hit-or-miss Boston Bruins have done everything within their power to take their playoff fate, well, out of their power. Losers of a 6-4 final in Ottawa last night, dropping their season series against the Senators for the first time since 2005-06, and allowing the Sens to move within two points of them for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, the pressure is once again on the B’s.
And as the Sens sit just one win away (though they have three fewer regulation/overtime wins than the Bruins), and with Ottawa holding a game in hand over the Black and Gold, the Bruins find themselves locked in a schedule war. One that I’m not sure necessarily favors them, either.
First, here are the basics on that front: The Bruins have 11 games, four of which at TD Garden, remaining, while the Sens have 12, including seven on their home ice, left on the docket. Over their final 11 games, the Bruins will play the Florida Panthers three times, the Tampa Bay Lightning twice, the Anaheim Ducks, the New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Washington Capitals all once. In their 12-game stretch to the end the year, the Sens will square off with the Toronto Maple Leafs three times, the Rangers twice, and the Panthers, Lightning, Red Wings, Capitals, San Jose Sharks, Philadelphia Flyers, and Pittsburgh Penguins all one time.
Delving into the schedules themselves, it’s fair to suggest that the Bruins will have a tougher go of it for a number of reasons. On top of three back-to-backs (compared to two for the Sens), the Bruins’ remaining opponents have an average point total of 82.5 in 2014-15 (two games with the 93-point Lightning, and remaining tilts against 97-point Ducks and 95-point Rangers bolster that average), while the Senators’ have a tamer 79.6 average point total (three games against the 60-point Leafs helps).
Another potential advantage for the Senators come from the fact that while each team has three remaining games against teams currently outside of the playoff picture, you’d much rather take the Sens over the Leafs than the Bruins against the Panthers, as the Panthers will undoubtedly look at those head-to-heads as must-wins considering the fact that they trail the Bruins by five points in the wild card. In essence, you have one team in Toronto that’s more than content on mailing it in for a higher draft position this summer, whereas the Panthers know that they can propel themselves back into the mix with three victories against Boston. (Just what the B’s want, too, I bet-- more pressure.)
Here’s another stat that could leave Boston fans spending their playoff money elsewhere: Boston’s seven road games don’t exactly come in the friendliest of buildings for the opposition.
Between their five road opponents (they play in both Florida and Tampa Bay’s building twice), Boston’s road opponents have a huge 63.5 point percentage in their own building. Tampa Bay is the obvious headliner here, with 55 of a possible 70 points grabbed at contests played at Amalie Arena this season.
One area that may have favor the Bruins in all of this, however, has been their head-to-head records with their remaining opponents this year. Against their eight remaining foes, the Bruins have a solid 9-6-2 record -- including a combined 6-1-0 record against the division rival Panthers/Lightning/Red Wings -- while the Sens are 7-8-4 against their remaining opponents.
There is an x-factor in all of this, though, and I think that it’s in both Boston and Ottawa crease.
By way of last night’s appearance, Tuukka Rask has now appeared in a career-high 59 games this season. And after sitting out Tuesday night’s game with what the Bruins called ‘general soreness’, Rask was far from sharp in a 26-of-31 showing at Canadian Tire Center last night. In essence, if Rask is fatigued to the point of more nights like last night, which would be overdue given the minutes that the reigning Vezina has already logged this year in an effort to save his club, the Bruins are already screwed.
And on the other side, you have Andrew Hammond, an out-of-nowhere story that’s befuddling NHL teams left and right to the tune of a 12-0-1 record and .951 save percentage since Feb. 16.
All of this means nothing if the Black and Gold can take of their business and maintain that two-point edge even when the Sens catch up in games played. But if this year has taught you anything, it’s that that’s probably literally the last thing you can bank on with this wildly inconsistent bunch.
To quote Samuel L. Jackson in Jurassic Park, “Hold on to your butts.…
Ty Anderson has been covering the Boston Bruins for HockeyBuzz.com since 2010, is a member of the Pro Hockey Writers Association's Boston Chapter, and can be contacted on Twitter, or emailed at Ty.AndersonHB[at]gmail.com