As reported by the team today and various other hockey media, the Canes started their trade deadline frenzy early trading their 2 biggest rental assets.
First, Jiri Tlusty was traded to Winnipeg for a 3rd round pick in 2016 and either a 5th round (if Winnipeg makes playoffs) or 6th round pick (if Winnipeg does not make the playoffs) in 2015.
Then only a couple hours later, the Canes traded Andrej Sekera to Los Angeles for their 1st round pick in 2015 (that converts to 2016 if the Kings miss the playoffs and it becomes a lottery pick) plus Roland McKeown who is a defenseman and the Kings 2nd round pick in the 2014 draft.
Let me offer my 2c on these 2 deals across a couple things:
Return of value:
I am on record (see my Twitter comments from this afternoon) as thinking that the Canes got the low end of fair for Tlusty. At nearly the same time as the Tlusty deal, Daniel Winnik went to the Penguins for a 2nd round pick in 2016 and a 4th round pick in 2015. Tlusty and Winnik are fairly different players that fill different needs, but I think it is reasonable to call them about equally valuable right now. So by no means did Francis get fleeced in the deal, but I think the high end of fair for Tlusty was a 2nd round pick, and I would also have preferred the higher pick being in 2015 which gets the Canes a prospect 1 year sooner and from a deeper/stronger draft.
For Sekera, I think Ron Francis got pretty much maximum value. I think a 1st-rounder plus something else meaningful was pretty close to the ceiling of what was possible. And though exactly where it ultimately falls is still TBD (and could become #30 if the Kings win it all again), the LA pick is a pretty good 1 relatively speaking. Unless Anaheim collapses and Los Angeles surges massively down the stretch, the Kings will not win their division. This means that the pick would not be in the bottom spots 26-29 predetermined by the regular season division crowns. And as of right now, the Kings should probably make the playoffs but right now they are the #14 team which would equate to the #17 pick. They are playing well and just got better, but even if they move up the standings a few spots, it still looks like a #18-22 pick (again assuming they don't win the Cup). As far as 1st round picks go that must come from a playoff-likely team that is pretty good. And while still multiple years out McKeown is a legitimate mid-tier prospect, not a player who is behind schedule or has lost value by not maturing on schedule. Per my blog a couple days back, my ideal trade was a near NHL ready player plus a lesser pick to help fill the roster sooner, possibly for 2015-16, versus just stocking the system. I named LA as a likely destination for Sekera and Derek Forbort as the NHL ready player that I wanted with the idea being that he could probably slot into a bottom pairing next year and hopefully grow into the top 4 soon. But all this said, I think the quality and volume of futures that Francis got for Sekera was good.
All in all, I think Ron Francis had a good day. The Vanek debacle last year shows that this is very much a game of musical chairs and that unlike summer talks where you can completely wait/walk away, the trade deadline sees GMs selling assets with very defined expiration dates. So moving a little bit early and avoiding the game of chicken that could yield more but could also be disastrous is a sound move.
What it means for 2015-16:
I am on record as being more inclined to re-sign Sekera even at full market value and more inclined to trade Tlusty. It is not so much a ranking of the 2 players as an understanding of the scarcity of replacements between the 2 positions. My math says that right now the Canes have 1 legitimate top 4 defenseman signed for 2015-16, that being Justin Faulk. I think with the right partner that Ron Hainsey could work in that role, and it is possible to find chemistry with guys who are really more 4ish/5ish and make it work. The Canes have a long history of this and deep playoff runs built on this model, but they also have big misses that doomed entire seasons when they carved out a top 4 slot for Jamie McBain too soon, tried a 2nd time around with Gleason/Corvo, etc. And to give credit where it is due, Tim Gleason and John-Michael Liles have been decent in the 2nd pairing slot this year. But at the end of the day, my math says that even with Sekera the Canes were short 1 top 4 defenseman. And the summer market for trying to add this kind of player via free agency is nearly impossible. Mitchell for $4.25M, Niskanen for $5.75M, Quincey for $4.25M, Robidas $3M (for 3 years for a 37-year-old) and Orpik $5.5M. And it is not like Raleigh will be a destination of choice this summer. I am on record (and yes subject to Twitter controversy because of it) for suggesting that the best path to adding a young top 4-capable defenseman is by trading Jeff Skinner, but minus that it seems like Francis could be forced to take his chances in the defenseman bargain bin this summer to try to build a bridge to Fleury and the suddenly deeper, but still years away, group of defenseman in the system.
Jiri Tlusty is an interesting situation. As long as he does not catch fire in Winnipeg down the stretch and/or in the playoffs, I could see him fitting into the Canes' budget even on the open market and returning in July despite hitting the open market. There are 2 other factors that make me less concerned about replacing Jiri Tlusty. First, it is easier to push forwards who are not quite ready into the NHL mix compared to defenseman. And the volume of decent options at forward for reasonable prices are usually much greater than the options on defense per the blue line salaries for top 4 or even top 4ish defensemen last summer.
While the 2 biggest chips were moved today, I would expect Ron Francis to complete a few more lesser deals over the next few days. For any teams that need forward or blue line depth especially in the form of penalty kill help, Jay McClement and Patrick Dwyer at forward and Tim Gleason on defense all have "member of the NHL's top penalty killing team" on their resume right now and also contracts that expire at the end of the season. I think a great trade by Francis would be to find a team that could use inexpensive depth across 2 of those 3 slots and package them up to get more than the late round pick that any of these players might be worth by himself. With Franson and Sekera already gone from a thin defenseman market, is it possible that John-Michael Liles could suddenly be marketable? That would be a stretch and a little risky creating another hole on the blue line, but I think Francis would gladly take the $3.8M back into his pocket and take his chances on a replacement this summer.
What say you Canes fans? How do you rate the Tlusty and Sekera deals? Is anyone else disappointed that despite doing well get a 1st-rounder plus for Sekera that Francis did not parlay him into a young NHL ready or near ready player or even replacement? Is anyone scared about the prospect of trying to replace Sekera on the open market this summer? Is there any chance that Francis pulls off a non-rental trade in the next few days that more significantly reshapes the roster?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt (where I will be fairly active leading up to the trade deadline and chime in more quickly than here during the work day)
Go Canes!