Last night, I started digging into the salary cap situations across the league. Today, it seems like not a single trade, free agent signing or roster conversation happens without some reference to the impact on the team(s)' salary cap situation. At times, it seems like the salary cap implications trump the very basics of is the player good, does he improve the team, etc.
After sorting through every team and jotting some random notes, I went back and pulled together a team-by-team analysis for salary cap situations and will post it in three parts over the next few days. Part one is 9 teams A-C.
Anaheim 2015-16: Whopping $16M cap space which is utterly astounding when you consider that they are not a budget team or a struggling team. (They do still need to re-sign Silfverberg and Hagelin but there is obviously room.) 2016-17: The Ducks will need to re-sign Vatanen, Lindholm and Despres probably for decent raises, but again, there is plenty of room.
The Ducks are literally an example of money management brilliance in today’s NHL. Though the team has yet to get over the hump in the playoffs, it is easily in the category of “could feasibly win it all.… Yet they spend like a small market team just trying to cut costs or adhere to a small, self-imposed budget. How? The team actually as 3 potential goalies but somehow only $4.1M tied up in the position when many teams spend $6M+ on a single starter. They have also been adept at adding decent young players on cheap contracts. The Ducks roster currently includes a list of Vatanen, Despres, Lindholm, Rakell, Andersen and Maroon who average about $1M/year. (Maroon is a bit more at $2M).
Net: The Ducks have incredible flexibility and no issues for both 2015-16 and 2016-17.
Arizona 2015-16: Have $15M cap space. 2016-17: Again, the team will have plenty of cap space.
The $ that matter in Arizona are not salary cap $. It is irrelevant. As the team tries to sort itself out financially, internal budgets will be the limitation on player spending. The addition of Chris Pronger’s contract to boost salary spending clearly shows that the team is more concerned with not making the floor than hitting the ceiling.
Net: The salary cap is irrelevant.
Boston 2015-16: Have $4.8M cap space. 2016-17: Get some relief with Eriksson, Kelly and the retained portion of Lucic’s salary coming off the books to free up $10M and no young players make the jump from real cheap entry-level contract to something more expensive.
Getting rid of part of Lucic's contract and trading away Hamilton helped a bit with salary cap challenges. (I will leave the heated discussion about what it did to the team to the people that cover the Bruins regularly.) The way the Bruins stack up right now, they have room for one bigger contract (in theory that is the Franson money.) or maybe two cheaper contracts for 2015-16 and do gain a little bit more flexibility for next summer.
Net: Trading Hamilton created some breathing room cap-wise anyway, but the team is still pushing pretty close to the ceiling and could spend the majority of the savings if they backfill that slot with Franson. Next summer looks better but only marginally so.
Buffalo 2015-16: Have about $13M cap space. 2016-17: Continue to have significant salary cap flexibility.
The Sabres have actually added a decent bunch of higher-end contracts during their ongoing rebuilding process. Committed for $4M+ for multiple years are Gionta, Bogosian, Georges (actually $3.9M), Ennis, Kane, Moulson, Kane and O’Reilly. When I look at this list, I cannot help asking how many of those players are really $4-5M/year players on good NHL teams? There is cap space to add 2-3 more players this year (or maybe more likely next summer), but I have to wonder if Sabres are too many years deep into buying the wrong players for too much money to build out the tentative roster.
Net: The Sabres have significant cap space for both 2015-16 and 2016-17 and could add 2-3 higher-end players if they choose.
Calgary 2015-16: About $3M cap space. 2016-17: Looks real challenging.
The Flames do get some cap relief with a few contracts coming off the books (DJones $4M, Hudler $4M, Hiller $4.5M, Ramo $3.8M), but Giordano (currently $4M) will cost a bunch more and Monahan, Gaudreau and Granlund are all coming off sub $1M entry-level deals that will cost a bunch more. If Giordano comes in at a Subban-ish $8M, this situation gets real challenging. It seems like losing one of the two goalies plus shedding the couple vets who come off $4M deals could squeeze the team under the cap limit, but it will be tight. Everyone is in agreement that adding Hamilton improves the team, but he better live up to expectations because the majority of what might have been plan B money went into his contract for the next 6 years. When you look at the salary charts for Calgary, next summer is challenging with the RFAs getting raises and a new Giordano contract kicking in. But there is some relief the following summer when a couple big contracts come off the books. Wideman at $5.25M, Smid at $3.5M and Engelland at $2.9M all come off the books and with Hamilton, Giordano and Brodie to fill three of the top four slots, there could seemingly be savings here.
Net: The Flames are in new territory having to at least consider salary cap implications for the rest of this season, could face challenges next summer and then maybe get a bit of relief after that. Ideal would be to accelerate the relief by trading a big contract or two, but moving overpriced contracts is hard and getting harder not easier in today's NHL.
Carolina 2015-16: $12M cap space. 2016-17: Presents significant savings and probably some new budget.
As with Arizona, the limitation is internal budget not at all the salary cap. Even that situation should improve modestly for 2016-17 when a couple big contracts come off the books. Eric Staal (seemingly likely to return but for less), Cam Ward, John-Michael Liles come off big contracts and the team also recoups the $1.4M being paid on Harrison and Ruutu’s contracts this season. I would expect the Canes to be modest (not to the salary cap limit) buyers next summer when a bit of money frees up.
Net: The salary cap is mostly irrelevant. Limitations are from internal budget requirements. The team does get some relief and possibly budget next summer when a couple big contracts come off the books.
Chicago 2015-16: Less than $400k cap space; still trying to somehow fit Kruger into the equation. 2016-17: Similarly tight but probably okay if they do not need any upgrades.
If the Hawks can figure it out for this season, things could also mostly work out for next summer as long as they are happy with the roster. The core of the team is signed long-term, and there are no young players coming off entry-level deals that will require a bunch more money. As long as the current roster is good enough (plus some cheap help from the system), the Hawks should be okay. Seabrook is a free agent next summer but his $5.8M salary this year is enough money to replace him or probably just re-sign him.
Net: The risk is that the Blackhawks need to add a player or two to improve or backfill injuries. Unless they make space with another trade (no one wants Bickell at $4M) or get LTIR relief they do not have the money to do it. The situation is equally, but not more, challenging next summer with most of the key players locked up long-term and Seabrook potentially just reclaiming what he is making this season.
Colorado 2015-16: About $9M cap space. 2016-17: Similarly okay.
Nathan MacKinnon will come off his entry-level deal next summer and require a big raise, but the Avs have plenty of room. Past that, there is no major salary escalation from having to re-sign players currently on cheap contracts (EJohnson is maybe 1 exception). Depending on internal budget the Avs have the potential to take on a bit more salary either this season or next.
Net: The Avs are not cap-constrained even next summer when they need to re-up MacKinnon for a small fortune next summer. The bigger issue there is probably internal budget somewhat similar to Arizona and Carolina.
Columbus 2015-16: $3.7M cap space. 2016-17: Similar situation with a bit of extra pressure.
In taking Clarkson in the Horton trade to get a player instead of a LTIR write-off for their $5M and trading for and signing Saad for $6M, the Blue Jackets suddenly became a cap team. The core of the Columbus forwards are signed for multiple years (which is mostly a good thing) as is Bobrovsky. The challenge could be building and keeping a good blue line. The team is light on experienced veterans here (hence the Ehrhoff rumblings) and also has Prout, Savard and Murray coming off $1Mish entry level deals next summer. The double-edged sword could be this – If these young defensemen are not quite top 4 ready, there is not much money to go buy a better plan B. Or if they get thrust into the top 4 and excel this season, what does that do to their cost next summer? The Jackets do get a small amount of relief when Bourque comes off his $3.3M deal, but otherwise things will be tight again next summer.
Net: The Blue Jackets are near the top of the list in terms of being locked into their current team when you look at the volume of players on big contracts signed long-term. If the team's torrid win pace to close out 2014-15 once they got healthy is an omen for the future, that is okay. But if they need help, especially on defense, they could be challenged finding the $ to get it.
When you net out this first set of nine teams, I think it breaks down like this: --Salary cap irrelevant because of internal budget: Arizona, Carolina. --Salary cap irrelevant because of plenty of space: Anaheim, Buffalo, Colorado. --Salary cap challenged: Boston (maybe I tiny bit less so than last summer), Calgary, Chicago, Columbus.
Would be curious to hear thoughts from people who track the other eight teams more closely than I do. --Am I right that Calgary could have a hard time next summer (barring a trade to relieve pressure)? --As long as Chicago's current roster works, could the team be in less danger than the nearly $0 left indicates? --Does anyone else think that Buffalo has too much money tied up in borderline top half of the roster players earning big $? --Is Anaheim lucky or brilliant?
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