Follow Colin on Twitter! Follow @ColinDJD
As I mentioned over Twitter last night, it has been getting increasingly difficult to write about this team and offer any comments or insight that hasn’t already been regurgitated by the rest of the media.
With that said, I figured we should just cut to the chase and lay it all out – and I apologize to anyone who had even a glimmer of hope for the rest of this 2015 NHL season for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Historically speaking, it has taken around 92 points to squeeze into the playoffs. This particular year there are a few teams higher than league averages from previous years, so let’s call it 94 points to find the postseason in the Eastern Conference.
Right now, the Leafs have accumulated 48pts in 52 games played, with a winning record of 0.92pts per game played. If they were to continue on pace, they will end the year with an additional 28 points for a measly total of 76. So to take it a step further, they would need to win at the very least 23 of 30 games remaining for an additional 46pts in order to hit 94 total, which even then would likely be flirting with 9-10th place in the East. Not exactly pretty, is it?
I had a little back and forth with Damien Cox last night over Twitter as he essentially offered that it is now too late to go back on the decision that it was Randy Carlyle’s firing which was needed to ensure progression of this franchise. Yes, it’s too late – the guy is fired. But what I had an issue with is that the team has played but 12 games under Horachek so far and I can confidently say that I was not personally expecting them to suddenly turn in to a playoff contender under a new coach.
Any mid-season change will have some effects on a team, and even more so when you are asking them to completely change the way they have been instructed to play for the past couple of seasons; and here’s the thing – I actually like it!
Let me be clear; No I don’t care for the boring defensive systems similar to what Nashville has offered for years, and no I don’t like losing even though the Leafs have brought their shots against down and have been getting their chances. But what I do like is that the team is actually (starting) to trend in the right direction with respect to playing a complete game (albeit not scoring goals, but we know they can do that).
Allow me to defend that before you assume I’ve lost my mind; I have been watching the games and I have been looking at the numbers. But what most fail to recognize through their blind rage and or excessive disappointment is that this is (needed) if the team is ever going to improve down the road. This style, this pain, this anguish is needed for the future core of the team as battling through and learning how to play defense will only, actually, make them stronger. I think we can all agree on one thing –the team wasn’t going to win or do much with their old style. It was too risky, it wasn’t strategic, it left too many opportunities for losses over an entire season, and the team didn’t ultimately have strong enough players to cover said issues.
What we are seeing now are a bunch of players who are seemingly learning to play a defensive system for the first time in what would seem their careers, and they’re having a hard time finding a balance.
So let me leave you with this – anyone in their right mind should have expected the team to struggle, and while not necessarily to this degree, I would almost guarantee that this is no surprise to Brenden Shannahan and that further, he’s not shaking as much as folks think.
Expect changes, but don’t expect knee jerk reactions. By this point in the season the Leafs brass have identified what needs to go and what needs to be done, and I actually feel that for once in a long time they are going to do the (full) steps required and not a few band-aid type fixes.
Thanks for reading.