The Pittsburgh Penguins have done well in getting value out of the throw-in players included in their big trades. One example would be getting Pascal Dupuis included in the Marian Hossa trade. Another example would be acquiring Matt Niskanen along with James Neal.
Adam Clendening is the latest throw-in candidate and it is yet to be seen what he will amount to during his Penguins tenure.
Today I want to focus on Matt Niskanen and why he became a throw-in candidate in the James Neal trade to begin with.
Matt Niskanen is a former first round selection of the Dallas Stars and his career started off with a 26 point season and then in his second season he registered 35 points which is very good for a young defenseman. However, in his third season he only registered 15 points and in 2010-11 he started off slow in the point production department with only six points in 45 games. He was then included in a trade with James Neal to Pittsburgh.
The slow in offensive production was no doubt the catalyst in Dallas souring on him as a player for them. Should it have? The answer is no and I am going to showcase why that is.
Here is the three year lead up to when Dallas added Niskanen into the James Neal/Alex Goligoski trade
His offensive numbers as I previously mentioned are really poor. The big thing to take away from this is that Matt Niskanen was still driving play at an elite level while on the ice. Puck possession is a more repeatable skill and a more stable statistic. In other words the possession numbers are more trustworthy. Shooting percentage and save percentage are very volatile and are more susceptible to huge variance. Using PDO we can visualize the path Matt Niskanen's career has taken to this point.
That crater happened during the time period leading into the trade.
Now we will look at Niskanen's entire career via HERO chart.
Most important is his possession on the bottom. It has never changed and has always been consistent. He has been a very good defenseman his entire career. His offensive production has had ups and downs and because of that Dallas undervalued him and tossed him into a trade without giving it a second thought. If then general manager Joe Nieuwendyk would have focused on the right variables he would have still found value in Niskanen as a player. Instead he sold low on an overreaction to variance.
This example can be used as a cautionary tale to other decision makers in hockey. Follow the right numbers and the mistake of tossing in very good player into a trade as a throw-in is minimized.
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