Part four of our offseason position report will focus on the middle six forwards. I'm not really breaking any news here by saying that the Islanders have forwards playing above where they should be playing. Every one of the forwards who I will discuss has played on the top line with John Tavares. That's a problem. Dan will analyze the top line later in the week.
We begin with the biggest question mark, Frans Nielsen. The 32-year-old is set to become an unrestricted free agent July 1. Unlike, Kyle Okposo and Matt Martin, the Islanders have had preliminary talks with Nielsen's camp. Nielsen had his second 20-goal, 50-point season of his career. But what is Frans Nielsen? Is he a legitimate second-line center? I'm not sure. He was that on this team due to their lack of talent. When Mikhail Grabowski, who I will talk about later, was brought in, Nielsen shifted to where he belongs, the third line. But jumped back to the second line when Grabovski was injured.
Nielsen, like every other forward on the team, saw their possession numbers decline. He still was an above-average possession player though. Jack Capuano moved Nielsen with Tavares at the end of the season and playoffs and saw some early success. He will not be your top-line winger either. While I would love to have Nielsen back, the Isles cannot give him five years. I would be skiddish on four as well. Garth Snow cannot go above 3-years/$15-16. Snow could look to the open market and try to sign David Backes. Although I would expect him to get at least four years.
Brock Nelson's contract drama seemed to have little effect on him as the 24-year-old had a strong first half. Nelson scored 20 goals in the first 50 games and seemed poised to net 30 for the first time in his career. The last 30 games played out pretty much the same way as the previous season. Nelson scored just six goals to finish with 26. Just like the previous postseason, Nelson scored in the opening game and did little else throughout the postseason. When Nelson was not scoring, he was invisible. He needs to use his size to his advantage. His team-friendly $2.5M cap hit could make him a piece in a deal for the top-line forward.
Everyone, including myself, believed Ryan Strome was set for a breakout season. He started the season playing with Tavares. He struggled to find any chemistry with the Captain, scoring just one goal in his first 12 games. His slow start punched his ticket to Bridgeport. He returned three weeks later and produced, albeit for a brief time. Capuano scratched him for a couple of games in the playoffs. Strome clearly has talent to be a top-line forward. If Nielsen walks and Snow does not bring in another center, he could be your second-line center. I will speak for most Isles fans and say that I would not be comfortable with that to start.
Strome did said all the right things at the team's break-up day. “It’s going to drive me more this summer to be better and make sure they can’t healthy scratch me ever again.… You have to wonder why a trip to the minors would not motivate him for the entire season. Strome is a restricted free agent. Strome's poor season clearly saved the team money. A long-term deal was likely. Look for Strome to bet on himself, like Anders Lee and take the team's qualifying offer. Strome has no leverage to have a stalemate like Nelson did last offseason.
Speaking of Lee, the 25-year-old was playing perhaps his best hockey of the season when a Johnny Boychuk slap shot broke his Leg, causing him to miss the rest of the season. Lee did say that if there was a Game 7 against the Lightning he could have played. Lee saw his goal total dropped from 25 to 15 this season. Is it a cause for concern? I don't think so. Lee was starting to do what he did best, create havoc in front of the net. He will at least be on the second line heading in the season.
Is could be possible that Nelson, Strome and Lee reform the "Kid Line" that had success in the 2014-15 season.
Josh Bailey just completed his eight year in the NHL. Still just 26, he is what he is, a third-line player. There's nothing wrong with that if you didn't have a team filled with third-line players. He will never score 20 or net 50 points. Bailey struggled in both possession and his defensive play, both strong area of his game in the past. I'm sure Snow will look to move his $3.3M cap hit over the summer. Will there be any takers?
Mikhail Grabovski was brought in two years ago to be the second-line center. He has missed 55 games over those two seasons. The Isles are in a tough spot with him. If he is still suffering symptoms from his concussion, he cannot be bought out. They would love to shed the $5 million he is owed each of the next two seasons. If he comes back healthy and plays, he is one hit away from yet another concussion and the team is on the hook for his cap hit. A long-term injured reserve spot could be in his future. The team will continue to pay his contract while it will not count against the cap.
Grabovski's friend Nikolay Kulemin had a down year. His nine goals were one behind Matt Martin. His possession numbers were terrible. if not for his play on the penalty kill, you could say that Kulemin was the team's least productive forward. There were reports that Kulemin was suffering from some sort of injury. If he was injured, he battled through it to play 81 games. Dan wrote about this yesterday and I totally agree, actually I brought this up to him last week but whose keeping track. Kulemin could replace Martin on the fourth line if he leaves. Having a player with an almost $4.2M cap hit on that line doesn't bother me especially if he plays the way he did in 2014-15.
Shane Prince was acquired from the Senators at the deadline. Prince did little in the 20 regular-season games with the Islanders. He did have a decent postseason, scoring three goals (2 in Game 1 against the Lightning) in 11 games. I would expect Prince to battle for a bottom-six spot.
Finally we get to Alan Quine. I watched Quine for a couple years in Bridgeport. I was happy that he got the call in the final two regular-season games. He impressed Capuano enough that he played ten games in the postseason. He will go down in Isles lore as having score the double-overtime winner in Game 5 against the Panthers. He finished with five points. Like Prince, expect Quine to battle for a bottom-six spot.