Quick update on the playoff front:
The Philadelphia Flyers are in a playoff spot. I repeat the Philadelphia Flyers are in a playoff spot.
The Flyers beat the Detroit Red Wings and Chicago Blackhawks on back to back nights to move past the Red Wings and into a playoff spot. An incredibly impressive accomplishment considering how their year began.
What does this mean for the Penguins?
Playoff chances, west and east. pic.twitter.com/zqSpXddu6L
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) March 16, 2016
Pittsburgh is still projected to have a 90% chance of making the playoffs.
Adam Gretz did some math to figure out how many points the second wild card team will need.
Second wild card spot in East (PHI) now on pace for 94.7 points. Red Wings need to go 8-4-0 in final 12 games to reach 95 points.
— Adam Gretz (@AGretz) March 17, 2016
The Penguins will get to 95 points if they go 6-6-1 the rest of the way. https://t.co/H1VmBFFn90
— Adam Gretz (@AGretz) March 17, 2016
Pittsburgh is playing decent enough hockey to go .500 the rest of the way.
I know a lot of Penguins fans are worried about the Flyers, but it is the Red Wings that should be worried.
A couple big news items dropped yesterday about the league.
The first is that the salary cap should rise next year.
Bill Daly says salary cap projection given was around $74 million with the escalator, but a flat cap without the escalator.
— Pierre LeBrun (@Real_ESPNLeBrun) March 16, 2016
It is believed that the players will use the escalator clause. This is good news for teams like the Penguins that spend very close to the cap ceiling. While the 74M number is lower than the original 74.5M estimate this still gives teams more money to use. The salary cap is currently 71.4M.
In what I consider even bigger news are the details that have been released about a potential expansion draft. This expansion draft isn't going to be like the other ones in the past. The expansion teams now are going to be able to select some pretty decent players given the parameters that were released.
Day 3 wrap blog - GMs preview potential expansion draft rules https://t.co/l7qAlywaMT
— Pierre LeBrun (@Real_ESPNLeBrun) March 16, 2016
• Teams will have two options in who they protect: either they safeguard seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie; or they protect eight skaters (whether they're defensemen or forwards) and one goalie.• First- and second-year pros -- including those playing pro hockey at any level -- will be exempt from the expansion draft. But if they're entering their third year of pro hockey, they're no longer exempt. Teams would have to either protect them or expose them.
• Unsigned draft picks (think college or European players) are exempt from the expansion draft for two years from their draft year but not in Year 3, so teams will have to either rush to sign those guys or simply expose them in the expansion draft.
• The total salaries for the players made available by each team in the expansion draft must be at least 25 percent of the previous season's payroll for that team. Daly explained: "The other variation that makes this expansion draft different is we would contemplate having some thresholds based on salary to make sure that the expansion club can be competitive based on the ranges we have in the CBA. Teams would have some obligation to expose a level of salary. And in terms of drafting players, teams would have to draft a certain threshold of salary."
Depending on when this draft is held the Penguins could have some pretty decent players exposed. It is my estimation that players like Matt Murray, Olli Maatta, Brian Dumoulin, Derrick Pouliot, Tristan Jarry and Daniel Sprong would all be eligible given that they all would be entering at least their third pro season in 2017-18 (my guess at the earliest this draft would take place).
If the Penguins go the seven forwards and three defensemen approach that leaves at least one of Maatta, Dumoulin, or Pouliot exposed.
Also complicating this draft for general managers is the following:
On expansion draft protection lists & players with NMC: If NHL respects NMCs, player would count against a team's list, not in addition to.
— David Pagnotta (@TheFourthPeriod) March 16, 2016
This means Pittsburgh (like other teams) have to use up protected spots on anybody who has a NMC. Some of the options are obvious keepers like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang but some of them are not like Phil Kessel and Marc-Andre Fleury. *I used General Fanager to see which players had NMC's*
This means unless there is a trade Matt Murray would be exposed. Will it come to that? Probably not. Josh Yohe had some quotes straight from Jim Rutherford about it yesterday:
I asked GMJR about the whole MAF/Murray expansion draft possibility. He doesn't seem worried. Here's what he said: https://t.co/dSQjatSWtD
— Josh Yohe (@JoshYohe_PGH) March 17, 2016
“We have good goalies,… Rutherford said. “That’s always a tough decision, when you can only protect one.…Well yes, that would seem like a problem.
Then, Rutherford paused before making a statement that can be interpreted however one sees fit.
“Listen,… he said. “I don’t think we’ll be losing a good goalie in the expansion draft.… How so?
“The point I’m making is, there are other ways of dealing with it,… he said. There are many variables to consider.
The fact of the matter is that Pittsburgh will need to choose either Marc-Andre Fleury or Matt Murray to be the long term starter for this team and trade the other guy. This was going to be the case even without an expansion draft.
As we start to get more details finalized on what the expansion draft rules are I will eventually post the players I would protect.
Thanks for reading!