I hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend!
I’m back with a look at some 2015-2016 fantasy projections for Canadiens forwards. I have only included players that are expected to produce - sorry fans of Devante Smith-Pelly and Dale Weise… Feel free to add your projections in the comments!
Max Pacioretty - LW -
Pacioretty has been one of the NHL’s most productive goal scorers these past few seasons and there is no reason to think that he won’t be able to further surpass the career high in points (67) he recorded last season. Production wise, he tallied 37 goals which was two less than he had in 2013-2014. He scored 3 less powerplay goals but added two more shorthanded goals. There is no question that Pacioretty has developed into a complete player and has been able to do so without sacrificing his offensive zone stats. While he injured his knee early in the off-season, Pacioretty aka Wolverine as is so often called, will most likely be ready in time for the season opener although perhaps not for the start of training camp. According to a recent interview with head coach Michel Therrien, Pacioretty is unsurprisingly ahead of schedule:
Max Pacioretty déjoue encore les pronostics des médecins : http://t.co/I6AOj1so8K pic.twitter.com/0ZHhfMZvpE
— TVA Sports (@TVASports) September 7, 2015Thus , the biggest question coming into training camp is not when he will return, but who will be his center? Throughout most of his professional career, David Desharnais has been Pacioretty’s centerman. It can be hard to argue against Pacioretty’s results when they play together. However, over the past season we saw this duo becoming more and more predictable, especially when Desharnais was in a slump. Pacioretty ended the season playing with Tomas Plekanec and was successful playing alongside him as they had developed strong chemistry on the top penalty kill unit. Everyone also remembers the excitement of the Alex Galchenyuk as center experiment and being impressed at Pacioretty’s playmaking abilities. Chances are Pacioretty will experience a carousel of centers again this season, however to start the season I would not be surprised if Therrien goes back to his favorite duo. I think fantasy projections of 35-35 = 70 points are realistic and achievable. Chances are Pacioretty will flirt with 40 goals again this season and if Craig Ramsay is able to truly help the Canadiens powerplay, Pacioretty will finally break that barrier - if he can remain healthy.
Tomas Plekanec - C -
Plekanec is as steady as ever. We have seen throughout his career that he is capable of putting up points, especially when he is given quality wingers. Last year he often found Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher on his wings although he ended with Pacioretty on the left and Gallagher on the right. At times earlier in the season Plekanec had Sven Andrighetto while he was up and former Canadiens Jiri Sekac on the wings. Throughout it all Plekanec has been a calming and consistent presence, rarely panicking with the puck. His 26 goals, 7 being on the powerplay were the most he has scored since the 2007-2008 season when he scored 29 goals with 12 coming on the powerplay. This season, Plekanec should achieve 60 points again, perhaps going up to 65 but I don’t see him surpassing that. I believe there is a good chance we could see a line of Galchenyuk - Plekanec - Semin to start the season, a line which has the potential to put up big numbers or bust completely… Plekanec is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year but this should not affect his numbers, one way or another.
Alex Galchenyuk - LW/C -
One of everyone’s favorite debates, is Alex Galchenyuk ready to be a full time centerman in the NHL? Training camp can’t open soon enough for everyone to find out. At 21 years old, Galchenyuk still has lots of opportunity for further growth and development. The good news as evidenced by his sister’s posting of his workout videos, Galchenyuk has worked hard this off-season and looks to have put in a lot of time in the gym to get stronger. He had career highs last season, posting 20 goals and 26 assists for 46 points. Numbers that are certainly acceptable although a little lukewarm considering expectations for this 3rd overall draft pick. If Galchenyuk can prove that he is becoming a stronger player that is becoming stronger in his own end, Therrien will reward him. There is no doubt that Galchenyuk can break 50 points this season, either as a winger or center. A very good season from him will produce closer to 60 points. With only 3 powerplay goals and 1 game winning goal last season, it would be a complete disappointment if those numbers don’t increase in 2015-2016.
Brendan Gallagher - RW -
Gallagher has endeared himself to the Canadiens organization and its fans from day 1, through his determination and willingness to go into the dirty areas with a permanent smile on his face. His dedication to improving his overall game was reflected with his increased ice time and Therrien’s confidence in Gallagher when the games were tight or even when protecting a lead. Like Galchenyuk, Gallagher also posted career highs last season with 24 goals and 23 assists totalling 47 points. His 3 powerplay goals were a significant drop from his 2013-2014 production which saw him score 8 times on the PP. However, his 6 game winning goals were a huge and obvious improvement from the zero he recorded the previous year. While Gallagher’s ceiling is not as high as Galchenyuk’s, he should be a consistent 25-25 player for years to come, with the potential for scoring 30 goals in a season where everything goes right.
David Desharnais - C -
Desharnais probably has the biggest love-hate relationship with fans. People either love him and defend him to death, or they can’t wait until he is traded so that Galchenyuk or Eller(!) can finally get a chance at top line center minutes. Whatever your opinion may be, there is no denying his chemistry with Pacioretty. One has to admire Desharnais for the NHL career that he has carved for himself. However, he can only take Pacioretty and the Canadiens so far as a top line center. Desharnais has a very high average shooting percentage of 15.7%, however he doesn’t shoot enough and predictably looks for the open man. If he stays in the top six, he should reach close to 50 points which is consistent with his past couple of season. A breakdown of 15-35 = 50 is going to be about right. If Desharnais does not play a lot with Pacioretty this season, I imagine his numbers will go down and he’ll get closer to 40 points instead. If Galchenyuk is able to steal his spot as a centerman, than Desharnais would probably move to the left wing next to Lars Eller on the 3rd line. A move that might actually benefit both players.
Alex Semin - RW - (can play LW though)
Canadiens General Manager Marc Bergevin took a chance this off-season, signing Semin to as a low risk, high reward player. This is seemingly Semin’s last chance to prove he can still produce in the NHL and be a team player. Semin has to score at least 20 goals for his game to be considered redeemed, and he will certainly be given the chance to produce. Semin should be featured prominently on the Canadiens power play. I think a consistent season of play with approximately 20 goals and 30 assists would be considered a grand success by many. Of course there is the potential for Semin to bomb in Montreal, however the reward far outweighs the risk.
Lars Eller - C -
Sigh, Lars Eller. Everyone’s second favorite debate. I won’t get into it too much and will just say that while we have seen flashes of what made Eller a 1st round pick, during the regular season - he has not done enough to warrant 1st line minutes. If Eller is somehow able to jump from 27 points to around 50 points this season, than a case can be made for him to be a 2nd line centerman. Considering his best season came in the lockout shortened year with 30 points in 46 games, it would be a stretch for Eller to jump to 50+ points this season. I think that a realistic goal would be 40 points for this season. Eller has proven to be very strong when going up against the opposing team’s best players and valuable when the game is on the line as evidenced by his 7 game winning goals. A realistic scenario for Eller this season would be approximately 15-20 goals, 15-20 assists. Most people have his linemates pegged as being Devante Smith-Pelly and Zack Kassian which would probably see Eller getting closer to 30-35 points. If however Desharnais moves next to him on the wing or a youngster like Carr, Hudon or Scherbak can win a spot at some point, then I think 40 points, perhaps even 45 is quite achievable. Unless there are injuries, Eller probably won’t get very much powerplay time and so most of his production will come even strength.
Zack Kassian - RW -
Kassian fans from Vancouver are seemingly ecstatic for him to be getting a chance in Montreal. Whether it be on the 2nd or 3rd line, Kassian will get an opportunity for ice time and hopefully a chance on the powerplay where his net presence would be a welcome addition. Last season he had a ridiculously high shooting percentage of 18.2% and scored 10 goals in 42 games with the Canucks. 3 of those goals were game winners. While Kassian is a bit of a project being on his 3rd NHL team at the age of 24, there is certainly the potential for things to finally click for the former 1st round pick in Montreal. Hopefully Kassian comes to camp in excellent shape with his mind in the right place. There is potential for him and Eller to find chemistry, hopefully similar to the playoff chemistry that Eller and Rene Bourque once enjoyed. If all goes well for Kassian this year, I think 40-45 points is achievable with him getting solid top 9 minutes with additional time on the powerplay. Although perhaps 30-35 points would be slightly more realistic.
Keeper leagues prospects:
If your league is a keeper league, look for these names as cheap pickups: Nikita Scherbak, Charles Hudon and Daniel Carr. These prospects are the Canadiens best when it comes to offensive potential. I won’t project fantasy stats for them because it is impossible to predict how much time they will each spend with the Canadiens this season. However, I would pay close attention to the Habs training camp battles and depending when your draft takes place, I would take a flyer on one of them.
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