The Rangers face off against the Canadiens on Wednesday night at MSG. Montreal is 16-4-2 while New York enters the game 16-3-2. The match up is the first between the two teams since Opening Night when the Rangers got "schooled" 3-0 by the Canadiens and pits AV and Michel Therrien, two friends off the ice, against each other.
Monday, New York thumbed their nose to the Corsi and PDO devotees while defeating Nashville 3-0. The shots after the first period were 14-3 Predators, while attempts favored Nashville 36-12. It didn't get any better in the second, when shots were 25-7 and attempts 62-21 Nashville. The Rangers did rebound to dominate the third, but were very fortunate to be up 1-0 after two.
We keep discussing how this is not a sustainable model, and it's not. At a certain point, to place that much reliance on Henrik Lundqvist - regardless of how dominant he has been - is unfair and dangerous. But the Rangers do appear to be comfortable with this model and style of play, even if it drives AV and the fan base crazy. The problem is that eventually you expect the bottom to fall out, we just don't know when.
In terms of the high PDO, as the stat states, it's composed of a high shooting percentage and save percentage. On the former, while that may not be fully sustainable, a major regression may not be coming. New York, as we have seen, is not a high volume shot taker, preferring to shoot when they have a clear lane or realistic chance at scoring, rather than hoping for rebounds that can be converted. Because of that, the drop in shooting percentage, which will eventually happen, may not be as drastic as expected.
In terms of save percentage, Lundqvist has a .946 save percentage. Just looking at the number would have us believe it's unsustainable. And while it may not be, are you willing to go out on a limb and say it won't? Hank is playing at an unworldly level. He is confident and comfortable between the pipes, enjoying the game more than he has seemingly in years. Because of that and because of our belief that the D can't be this bad all year in their own zone, maybe the fall off won't be that drastic.
Monday was the first game after the line combination shake up. Of course, if not for Rick Nash, who scored another goal scorers goal, the contributions from the other lines might not have mattered. Nash has regained his confidence, while as we know is a catch 20-20 situation for a goal scorer. You can't score unless you have confidence in your ability but unless you have confidence you likely won't score.
The move of Kevin Hayes up to the second line wing and JT Miller down paid some dividends. I thought Hayes was good not great on the second line wing, even with the PPG he tallied. As I have mentioned in the past, I am not a lover of Hayes on the wing. I know it takes some of the center responsibilities away from him, which might allow him to just play and not worry about his defensive responsibilities. But for that to work, Oscar Lindberg has to fill the role as the third line center. The jury right now is out on that, those most of us believe he is well suited to do so.
One other aspect with Hayes, which was mentioned on the SNY Rangers podcast, is that by moving him from center to wing, you remove an advantage NY had with him as the third line pivot. Few teams have a center that big and skilled, who is able to score as well, creating match up nightmares for opponents. For that reason along with my view he profiles best as a center - despite his challenges in the face off dot - is why I think Miller and Emerson Etem get shots as the second line wing or NY looks to acquire one at the deadline. Unless Pavel Buchnevich can be convinced to come over.
It's a match of Original Six tonight at MSG. New York goes for their tenth straight at home but gets a strong test in Montreal, despite the absence of Brendan Gallagher, who is out out six weeks after surgery to repair two broken fingers, and Torrey Mitchell. Lundqvist vs. Price should alone be worth the price of admission.