The silly season (free agency) is almost upon us but the rumor season (trading) has been going in full force. In fact, expect the rumors to come with more ferocity and volume with the draft upcoming this weekend. The Rangers don't pick to 81 and have just five picks right now (81, 98, 141, 171 and 201), and with the minimal space remaining under the projected $72.8 million cap, it appears as if almost everybody might be available. As I tweeted earlier in a conversation with Full Tilt Rangers, it may be shorter to list those who aren't available than those who are.
The biggest name - contract and in general - mentioned in most rumors is Rick Nash. Steve Zipay wrote today that "Nash, 32, and his $7.8 million cap hit for the next two seasons, will certainly have some appeal, especially because the Rangers will have to retain some of Nash’s salary and presumably include some prospects in any exchange." But to where and for whom? In addition, if Nash goes solely to bring prospects back, then New York will have to replenish what they lose in Nash's goal scoring elsewhere in free agency or via the trade market. Moving Nash makes sense to a certain extent, as he is the highest paid forward and one who has struggled to produce in the playoffs. Of course, that prior sentence is the rhetoric and story most us, failing to also consider everything he does on the ice. Some rumors have centered on Montreal as a possible landing spot for Nash.
Next up is most likely Derek Stepan. The Ottawa's Sun Bruce Garrioch reported that the talk is GM Jeff Gorton os listening on Stepan. Mark Spector weighed in saying: "It’s believed the Rangers are willing to entertain offers for all but a handful of players. Still, they won’t just give guys like Stepan away. They’ll want a return with a good young roster player (who’s also affordable) as part of the deal. There’s also no guarantee they will move Stepan." At $6.5 million, Stepan is the Rangers' second highest paid forward. Unlike Nash, who only has two years left, Stepan signed his six-year, $39 million deal last season, so he has five years left. In addition, if you are going to move him, the time may be now because his NMC starts 7/2/2017.
I wrote about Stepan this week in my grading blog (http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=77568). In it, I stated the below, which is still my view, but where there is smoke, there is fire, so moving Stepan would not surprise me in the slightest.
There are rumors or suggestions of Stepan to Minnesota for Alex Tuch and Matt Dumba or one of the two and Minnesota's first round pick. If a deal like this occurred, who is your second line center, Kevin Hayes? Are you really comfortable with that? Maybe if Nash and/or one of Marc Staal or Dan Girardi is moved creating cap room for a run at Steven Stamkos, a deal like that would make more sense. Tuch is a top prospect and I am big Dumba fan, but obtaining one without getting a center for Stepan would create another hole in the lineup.
In addition, the news that Colorado might want to shake things up which could mean big names moving has resulted in speculation that Matt Duchene could be in play with a possible Duchene-Stepan swap solving issues for both teams. To me, Duchene is a more talented but player of a similar nature to Brassard. Duchene is a sniper and would give the Rangers more speed, but it would come at the cost of the team's best all-around and defensively responsible center. Given all the issues that the Rangers had on the PK and also with Zucc and Kreider defensively, who picks up the slack in both cases of Stepan does go for Duchene?
It's quite possible one of these deals or a trade not even rumored with Stepan occurs. But, dealing him without the ability to replace and even better augment his skill set creates another hole. GM Jeff Gorton has his work cut off for him with the decision on Stepan or one of those mentioned above just one of the offseason subplots).
Zipay adds that besides Nash and Stepan, Marc Staal, Dan Girardi and Derick Brassard have all had their names "floated" out there. Staal and Girardi are names that have been bandied about so much you almost have to think that because of that neither will end up going elsewhere. With Brady Skjei and Dylan McIlrath - with McI also possibly going to be moved - available, trading one or the other or even both, if that was even feasible, would free up a ton of cap. In addition, most devotees of advanced metrics would lilely jump for joy if that occurred. Brassard has also drawn lots of speculation, due to his reasonable $5 million salary and ability to score. But if he is moved, then a scorer must come back and you have to wonder if even one of Nash, Stepan or Brassard will go, and if so, would they move a second?
The movement, or rumored movement, would be made to rejuvenate the lineup and create some much needed cap room. But change for changes sake should not be part of the equation. If making a deal and only bringing back prospects, then you had better be damn sure you can add in free agency. Even if getting players back, avoid a Carl Hagelin for Emerson Etem deal is paramount (and yes, I know Robin Kovacs is part of the equation).
Moving Stepan or Brassard means that it's a decent possibility that Kevin Hayes becomes the second center. I had a twitter argument on this today. To me, say what you want about Hayes' 5x5/60 advanced metrics boding well for future success, but I felt he regressed mightily last year. His defensive awareness took a major step backwards, and while he wasn't aided by his linemates, not all the blame for his struggles can be placed on them. New York reportedly is still exceeding high on his potential, which we all hope pans out. But dealing one of their top-two centers, especially with the remoteness of Steven Stamkos coming to the Big Apple, and expecting Hayes to take that major step forward seems more than a bit risky. I hope I am wrong.
Get set for a wild next 5-6 days.