30-in-30 Prospects VS PTOs
If you have watched the Jets prospects at the Penticton tournament you might be like a few other fans and curious as to why they are struggling, or failing to impress. If your interest goes further than the entertainment that the prospects tournament is supposed to bring then you are probably feeling a bit concerned about the coming youth movement that Jets are about to embark on tis season.
With most fans and pundits putting Ehlers and Copp in the line up to start the season with the possibility of Petan and Lemieux being long shots, the results of the first two games have done little to reassure those same people it’s the correct strategic process.
The first question one must ask is how much value a coach, GM or fans should put into a prospect tournament. The second question might be about where the prospects sit in their development trajectory compared to their competition/peers. Finally, one might ask why the team is betting on youth and not offering PTO to some veterans?
The last question is worth discussing as the first two would appear to be subjective answers based on isolated information from 3 games. You can come up with your own conclusions but until these players play within the greater group of the organization it’s hard to say with certainty that they are ready, or not. That’s the problem with making quick conclusions, they are so final.
If players such as Ehlers, Lemieux, Copp, Morrissey and Petan are not ready for the pace, grind and talent level of the NHL what’s the back up plan? That’s where the Jets leave some of their more ardent fans scratching their heads. Who steps in?
If you have seen the earlier pieces in this series you will know that the Jets have a dearth of depth defensemen to draw from to fill spots in the event of injury. In fact you will have seen that it’s unlikely that Morrissey makes the team unless he does something exceptional and with frequency at main camp.
However, the forward group presents all sorts of possibilities for youth with a second like RW position open as well as one or two spots on the 4th line depending on how head coach Paul Maurice wants to fill out his starting roster. But what if it all goes wrong? What if these prospects aren’t ready yet and can’t fill in the holes?
The Jets have two PTOs offers right now, to a goalie and a depth forward, Leggio and Raffl. Why not ask a few vets to come in on Professional Tryout Offers? The Leafs have asked both Boyes and Glencross to attend their camp. The Blues have 6 players on PTO at camp including Upshall and Gomez white the Blackhawks have Hejda and Paille on PTOs. The difference He’between these players and the Jets is that there is some value and possibility with the players the other teams have invited.
I had a discussion on Saturday on Twitter between myself and Robert Cleave, who is a great follow with some fantastic insights around the Jets. My position was that the move to youth has a partial ‘budget’ element to it based on what I have heard, which might not be entirely accurate. Robert made a great point when he replied, “That’s not true, though. The kids on one ways would be as expensive as those dude would be now.… He’s right to a point in that we don’t know what the end deal after a PTO is offered. What we can do is look backwards a bit and consider why the Jets did not sign either Stempniak or Tlusty this past offseason.
Stempniak was a target for the Jets last summer and he played admirably for the Jets down the stretch after he was acquired from the Rangers. Tlusty was also a benefit to the Jets shoring up the bottom 6 as well after playing almost exclusively on the second line in Carolina- why not keep what you already had?
There is the possibility that both did not want to stay in Winnipeg but Stempniak made his feelings public when he expressed surprise that not deal was worked out in the offseason. As for Tlusty he is still believed to be holding out for a deal with term and I think that’s fair for the quality of player he is, but obviously the Jets and GM Kevin Cheveldayoff feel differently and that may be because of budget and what looms ahead.
The Jets have 12.5 million in cap space for this season but if Ladd and Buff are signed plus raises for Trouba, Lowry, and Scheiflele that cap space goes to almost 1.5, or less, if current market rates for those players are projected on their next deals. Does having Stempniak and/or Tlusty for 2 years or more help with cap management?
As Cleave pointed out on Saturday that same questions should be asked of retaining Peluso and Thorburn at their current rates and terms. His bigger point is one that Jets fans should be asking regularly, why sign Peluso and Thorburn if it prohibits acquiring and then retaining better players like Stempniak and Tlusty?
That’s a fair question and one that has all but the GM and management group puzzled, at least if you believe that a 4th line of Stempniak, Copp and Tlusty is better than Thorburn, Slater and Peluso. The budget excuse is only as good as when you apply it and why apply it now when you didn’t before, or sign deals that were budget conscious?
The salaries of the youth if they were in the AHL are $70,000 versus ranging from $600k to $900k before bonuses if they played in the NHL. Would Stempniak not take his salary last year to continue on? Perhaps not if he looks at what Thorburn is making but he may be the better player than all that come from the development cycle.
The Jets have salary cap room to make these deals if they invite veterans for PTOs but they may not in the future. With the possible amount of money in the AHL looming for defence players to start the season, it is another reason why they may be gun-shy to deal with more expensive vets to round out the forward roster. But if that is the case it’s from their own doing and vision, or lack thereof, depending how you view the situation.
I’m not convinced budgeting is not a factor in how this scenario of youth over vets to fill out the roster has unfolded. To use it as an excuse or explanation to fans seems rather disingenuous though when looking at where other expenditures have come. They have to pay some one to be in those spots regardless but should they not be looking, if not exhausting all options for the best player? That’s the other rub with a segment of Jets fans, why are spots simply being made available to the youth as opposed to having them earn it?
That is another topic altogether though.