I am working my way through the top 20+ questions that I posted in June as the Rangers headed into the offseason. As we hit September 1, in my opinion, questions 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21 have been answered either through action or inaction. In essence, two-thirds have been answered in one way or the other. Today, we tackle #16, for which the answer is likely the same for all and probably can be summed up by one word and two letters, but what's the fun in leaving it there:
1. How good can Chris Kreider be and will his "defensive and hockey intelligence limitations" prevent him from reaching true sniper status? 2. Will/should Rick Nash be traded and if so, who would you like to be brought back? 3. Do the Rangers have enough to win the Stanley Cup, even with making the right moves this offseason? 4. Must the Rangers find a physical forward and defenseman in order to take that next step? 5. Would you deal Cam Talbot, knowing there is no true back up goalie that can play 20-25 games behind Henrik Lundqvist in the organization? 6. Should we be concerned with AV's inability to adjust the style of play to counter how Tampa played in Games 5 and 7? 7. For how many years and for what kind of dollars should the Rangers sign Derek Stepan? 8. Did JT Miller's performance in the playoffs, especially after he was moved up to the top-six, convince you that he has locked up a spot in the top-nine next season? Similar question related to Jesper Fast, is he a lock for the third-line? Are either at risk of an offer sheet? 9. How high is Kevin Hayes' ceiling and will he take a major step forward next year, building on his solid rookie campaign? 10. Should the Rangers bring back Martin St. Louis, if he is willing to sign for a low base with mild incentives or has that ship sailed? 11. Is what we have seen from Carl Hagelin all there is and should he be moved at the deadline to create cap room and replenish the system? If he is brought back, what type of years/dollars should he receive? 12. Which was the real Kevin Klein? The one who has the dominant first half of the season or the one who struggled after returning from the broken arm? Even if the former, does his $2.9 mil salary, need to create cap room and acquire picks and presence of Brady Skjei (and possibly Mike Reilly) make him expendable? 13. Did we see enough from Keith Yandle in the playoffs to believe he will be the answer on the power play during the regular season? Or does his high-risk, high-reward, pass-first style pave his way out of town? 14. Must Dan Boyle morph into Anton Stralman for the fans not to wish he had a one-way ticket anywhere else but New York? 15. Is Dan Girardi the most reviled Ranger because of his salary, perception he is the reason why Stralman isn't here and blue collar, anti-Corsi style? 16. Did Tanner Glass show enough in the playoffs to quell the boo-birds and even if so, does he still have a place on this team? 17. Do you look to bring back James Sheppard or let him walk, regardless of price? 18. Can Oscar Lindberg, Ryan Hagerty, Conor Allen, Dylan McIlrath or Skjei earn a spot on next year's squad? 19. Which free agents would you target? 20. Who would you look to trade? One more for good measure, which I have asked the past two years and we likely have covered already. 21. Will GM Glen Sather return next year? Even if he will, should NY indicate Jeff Gorton is the future GM to avoid losing him?
This is what I wrote last year after the Rangers signed Tanner Glass:
In general, I don't think any of us liked the Glass signing. You could say that AV has some leeway given where he took the Rangers this year to bring in someone he knew and felt could aid the team. Even if you believe in that, think that his speed, willingness to hit and possible use on the PK make him better than his ridiculously low Corsi and puck-possession numbers show, giving three years in general to a player of his ilk seems ill-fated. Then when you factor in he is getting $1.45 mil a year, less than $600k less than (Brian) Boyle, it looks even worse. For some reason, Sather loves signing goons, agitators or whatever term you want, as we saw with Asham, Brashear, Boogaard, but in this case, a lighter weight like Carcillo on a one-year deal would have made a lot more sense. Or just wait to see who else was there, as I doubt there was a rush to sign Glass.
What I wrote then, applies now. As seen below, Glass’ advanced metrics chart on his impact on linemates, CORSI and Goals last three years, or more precisely, the lack thereof, further evidences that what we felt at the time of the signing continues today. In addition, when you factor in that he has two years remaining at $1.45 million per, the signing becomes even more of a head scratcher and salary cap drain.
Impact on linemates, shot generation and suppression last year;
HERO chart last three years:
For most of last season, Glass on the ice was a non-entity. The fourth line, which was so good during the Rangers’ run to the Cup Finals two years ago, was a shell of itself the majority of last year. A big part of that can be pinned to the rotating linemates, as coach Alain Vigneault looked to find a trio that fit well together as well who was best suited for the third line. The absence of Derek Dorsett, Dan Carcillo and Brian Boyle didn’t help, but Glass did little to remediate that situation and fill the gap created by those absences.
In Glass’ defense, he did play better in the playoffs. He started to do what he was brought in to do, be a physical, agitative presence while avoiding the box, at least on stupid penalties. That’s not to see he was dominant but he provided with New York with some return on what they had paid and were paying for when they signed him. We can debate forever as why they signed him in general and for the terms they gave him, but it’s a moot point, since they appear to have little interest in buying him out nor do I foresee a lot of interest in him in the marketplace.
That prior sentence creates the issue now, which is the same as last year, what to do with Glass? However, this year is worse, because there truly looks like there is no room at the inn for him. Nash, Stepan, Zuccarello, Kreider, Brassard, Miller, Fast, Hayes and Moore all look to have spots locked up. That’s nine of the 12 active and 13 on the roster. Add in Etem, who is pretty much a lock, Lindberg, Stalberg and Stoll, right there is 13 skaters. So Glass looks likely to be the odd-man out or at best, a spot player, due to the depth in New York.
Let’s say the first 13 I listed earn spots, 12 active and one press box player. Keeping the first 12 allows AV to roll four lines as he has done in the past and maintains the lineup balance. If Glass is the odd-man out and he goes down, there will be a retention of salary on the cap. For Glass, it's about 525k because he is making $1.45 mil and the minimum salary for a player is $925k. For all the issues with the signing, the dollar amount he received to me is the main problem, because of the salary retention. I know there were rumors that others were interested, but no one was going three years or especially at that salary figure, which creates issues on a team where cap room is at a premium. If he had signed at three years and $1mil, while I would have been upset, at least the cap hit if he was buried in the AHL would have been minimal. Now, if he is to be sent down, you hope NY can find a taker and eat some salary to buy more room or the cap rises next year so the impact will be blunted.