I am working my way through the top 20+ questions that I posted in June as the Rangers headed into the offseason. As we are on the verge of the Traverse City tournament and the start of training camp, in my opinion, questions 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21 have been answered either through action or inaction. In essence, two-thirds have been answered in one way or the other. Today, we tackle #12, for which the advanced stats and metrics are pretty clear but the answer might not be:
1. How good can Chris Kreider be and will his "defensive and hockey intelligence limitations" prevent him from reaching true sniper status? 2. Will/should Rick Nash be traded and if so, who would you like to be brought back? 3. Do the Rangers have enough to win the Stanley Cup, even with making the right moves this offseason? 4. Must the Rangers find a physical forward and defenseman in order to take that next step? 5. Would you deal Cam Talbot, knowing there is no true back up goalie that can play 20-25 games behind Henrik Lundqvist in the organization? 6. Should we be concerned with AV's inability to adjust the style of play to counter how Tampa played in Games 5 and 7? 7. For how many years and for what kind of dollars should the Rangers sign Derek Stepan? 8. Did JT Miller's performance in the playoffs, especially after he was moved up to the top-six, convince you that he has locked up a spot in the top-nine next season? Similar question related to Jesper Fast, is he a lock for the third-line? Are either at risk of an offer sheet? 9. How high is Kevin Hayes' ceiling and will he take a major step forward next year, building on his solid rookie campaign? 10. Should the Rangers bring back Martin St. Louis, if he is willing to sign for a low base with mild incentives or has that ship sailed? 11. Is what we have seen from Carl Hagelin all there is and should he be moved at the deadline to create cap room and replenish the system? If he is brought back, what type of years/dollars should he receive? 12. Which was the real Kevin Klein? The one who has the dominant first half of the season or the one who struggled after returning from the broken arm? Even if the former, does his $2.9 mil salary, need to create cap room and acquire picks and presence of Brady Skjei (and possibly Mike Reilly) make him expendable? 13. Did we see enough from Keith Yandle in the playoffs to believe he will be the answer on the power play during the regular season? Or does his high-risk, high-reward, pass-first style pave his way out of town? 14. Must Dan Boyle morph into Anton Stralman for the fans not to wish he had a one-way ticket anywhere else but New York? 15. Is Dan Girardi the most reviled Ranger because of his salary, perception he is the reason why Stralman isn't here and blue collar, anti-Corsi style? 16. Did Tanner Glass show enough in the playoffs to quell the boo-birds and even if so, does he still have a place on this team? 17. Do you look to bring back James Sheppard or let him walk, regardless of price? 18. Can Oscar Lindberg, Ryan Hagerty, Conor Allen, Dylan McIlrath or Skjei earn a spot on next year's squad? 19. Which free agents would you target? 20. Who would you look to trade? One more for good measure, which I have asked the past two years and we likely have covered already. 21. Will GM Glen Sather return next year? Even if he will, should NY indicate Jeff Gorton is the future GM to avoid losing him?
Klein was injured on March 11 blocking an Alex Ovechkin shot with 41 seconds remaining in regulation after Carl Hagelin missed an empty net that would've clinched the game mere seconds before. X-rays showed a broken left arm that ended up sidelining him the last 16 games of the regular season.
Klein’s plus-24 rating at the time was tied with Rick Nash for the team lead and somewhat reflective of his value. He had posted career highs of nine goals and 26 points, playing in 65 of the Rangers’ 66 games and averaging 18:29 of ice time − fifth among players who had been in NY all season. In addition, Klein had averaged 1:48 on the PK, trailing the Big Three of Dan Girardi (2:47), Ryan McDonagh (2:39) and Marc Staal (2:13) while the Staal-Klein duo had been solid behind McD-G.
This blueseatsblog article does a great job of showing the advanced metrics, which pretty clearly spell out that Klein had been declining pretty substantially before the injury and that his hot start was unsustainable.
Here are some of the highlights from the blog:
- Klein went from a 56% possession player on January 1 to a 47% possession one when he was injured. His poor play, which resulted in the decline, continued through the playoffs. This matches what we saw on the ice, as Klein really struggled once the calendar turned to 2015.
- When Klein is on the ice, he’s not necessarily doing a good job of limiting chances to low risk areas. The alarming part is that the danger area in front of the net is very red, which means he allows more shots from that area on the ice than others.
- Klein had an unsustainable shooting percentage, which was 21.4% in December and ended up 11.8% for the full year. Even that number is a full six percentage points higher than his career average (5%).
- Klein has three more years on his contract which pays 2.9M per season, a pretty expensive price for a third pairing defensemen. He is making $3 mil this year, $2.75 per the next two.
On the face of it, all of that paints a pretty clear picture that Klein should have been moved this off-season. In fact, if you remember, I had posted a rumor that i was told from a good source that Klein and Talbot were almost moved at the deadline for San Jose's 9th overall pick. But here we are with the season about to begin and Klein has remained in NY.
Some positives for Klein:
- Before he was hurt, he seemed to always come up with a big goal or a big play.
- His struggles might well have been caused by the lengthy absence, as he finally came back to the NY lineup for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals against Washington, seven weeks later. Granted, his numbers had declined from that hot start, though that was expected. New York was good even when he was out and were the most part able to play through his poor play in the postseason, yet I wonder if he hadn't have been hurt, would he have reverted to closer to prior form?
- McDonagh, Girardi, Staal and Yandle are set. So is Dan Boyle. The questions that remain are who will be the seventh defenseman? Will it be Raphael Diaz? Is Dylan McIlrath ready for the next step? What about Brady Skjei? Now, if the answer to the Diaz, McIlrath and Skjei questions are yes, then I could see moving Klein. Though, we all know AV loves his righty-lefty balance, which is what Klein provides. Plus, he can play next to Staal or Yandle, so he is not a true third pair defenseman.
Boyle will be a free agent after the season, so Skjei is likely to take his place. Diaz, who actually is one of the team's better d-men at limiting shot attempts, but there is a reason he has bounced around. But, he is great for depth and can be plugged and played. Though, he may go back to Europe and isn't signed beyond this year. We have no idea if McIlrath is ready. Jeff Beukeboom, who I respect believe he is. Plus, when you factor in that he will have to go through waivers to be sent down, having him open the year as the seventh d-man makes sense. However, I don't believe any of us think that McIlrath should replace one of the top-six, especially Klein.
Where does that leave us? Is Klein the player he was the first three months of the season or the one post-January 1 and in the playoffs? Personally, I think he is one closer to what he showed earlier in the year, albeit with less offensive production. But, if his possession numbers look like what he showed post-New Years Day, the Rangers do have options to replace him and will use one of them rather than run Klein out each game.
(Also, I would be remiss in not mentioning Friday is the 14th anniversary of the tragedies on 9/11. If you haven't seen my blog on my recollections from the day, here it is: http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=46492)