Follow @james_tanner123 The Washington Capitals have signed star defenseman John Carlson.
The deal, which can't be signed until July 1st, is said to be for eight years with an average annual cap hit of $8 million.
Though Carlson scored a career high 68 points last season, this contract is too much for too long.
However - the Capitals were still right to sign it.
The team won the Stanley Cup, and Carlson is a huge star and a fan favorite. The deal might not be the best usage of cap space, but it makes the fans happy, and the team has already won, so who really cares?
It's a good day for the Capitals and their fans.
Carlson can score, but that is about all he brings. This year - the best of his career - he was a positive possession player relative to his team, but that was the first time since the lockout season that that happened.
Carlson's 32.39 shots against/60 is pretty rough. Among D in the NHL who played 1000 minutes of 5v5 ice time last year, it was 36th worse. Only five of those 36 players managed a positive shot differential, and Carlson was not one of them.
He's an objectively bad defender that has a great offensive game. A PDO of 101.7 also suggests that he is coming off a lucky season - which is a bad time for a team to have to sign a player as a free agent.
Saying that, a right handed defenseman (relatively rare) who gives you a consistent 40-50 points is an extremely valuable piece. The Capitals won the Cup, and this satisfies their fans and rewards a player for the nine seasons he's played and been underpaid.
Carlson is 28 and there is no way to know how long he will be good for. Some players can maintain their play well into their thirties, but the majority do start to decline year-to-year as they age. This makes the contract risky.
We know that the age related decline will likely outperform the inflation of the salary cap, making this a bad long term contract from a team perspective. The important question is if it helps the team win now.
They allocate roughly 10% of their cap to Carlson for next year. Is an offensive defenseman worth 10% of the cap? Would 2 x $4 million players be a better expenditure? It's very hard to say.
One way which might help you to decide is to consider two things:
1. In his career 68 point season, Carlson had a negative expected-goal differential. This means, that accounting for luck, he had an overall negative impact. He was a -4xga. For context, the number one ranked defenceman in this stat, Mark Giordano, was +16. (Corsica.hockey)
2. While Carlson was 10th in D scoring 5v5, 41 of his points did come on the powerplay. They still count, but most of that scoring would be replaced by any random PPQB and its not as repeatable as his 5v5 scoring.
If they hadn't won the Cup, I would say this is a terrible move. However, the Cap has gone up and they've got out from under Orpik's contract, meaning that, at least for next year, there is little to no risk on this deal because they're paying him with found money.
(Of course that is a logical fallacy and it's technically correct that you should always make the value move, regardless of where you've saved elsewhere. As my wife could tell you, just because I quit smoking does not mean it's OK to buy a CD every single day).
But winning is what makes this palatable. The Capitals get one year to try and repeat, by which time they'll likely be forced to break up the band and retool. For that year, you need john Carlson. And if, afterwards, you're forced to spend a few years out in the wilderness, well, you've already won your Cup and it will be worth it.
Carlson's deal is eventually going to be much worse than Orpik's was, but for the immediate future, as the team tries to extend their window and maybe repeat as Champs, this is the right move.
If you consider fans, the fun of the game, next season, Carlson's past performance, and the Cup win, this is a good move. It's not a smart value-play, and it's likely that Carlson will never live up to this massive deal, but teams that actually win get a lot of rope, and have a lot less pressure.
John Carlson is a good player, a fan favorite and it's exciting he's coming back. I tried my best not to be too negative here, but I personally would have let him walk.
stats from naturalstattrick.com