The Ottawa Senators played a relatively uneventful game tonight against the Columbus Blue Jackets, losing 1-0 in regulation thanks to some very solid goaltending from Joonas Korpisalo. The Senators did a lot of things right in this game, controlling vast segments of the even strength play, but were unable to convert on a fourth straight victory.
Due to the low-event nature of this game, which would make writing a compelling ‘thumbs’ blog tremendously difficult, the timing of Mike’s Mailbag submissions couldn’t be better. Here are my answers to your questions:
spatso asks: If the Sens could add one player in the $7-9M range, would you do a deal and who would you prefer?
Does this have to be realistic? I’m going to assume not. I think the Senators are lacking that elite 1C of the future right now. The hope is that it’ll come via the 2020 draft, but, even so, that’s where I’d be looking to spend these fictional dollars. A player like Brayden Point checks a lot of the boxes – he’s got the elite offensive skill, he’s got the ability to run a line himself, and he’s young enough to lead the Senators into contention in a few years.
Is he available? No. AlfieFever asks: What is the biggest reason for the Sens’ “success… for far this season?
The main reason in my mind? The Senators create a lot, but also give up a lot. Luck and hard work does the rest.
Per Natural Stat Trick, they are top-10 in both expected goals for and expected goals against at five-on-five. When they get superb goaltending from Anders Nilsson or Craig Anderson, their ability to create helps cover up that penchant for giving up equivalent chances. This team puts so many lottery balls into the air on most nights by playing that high-event style, so it’s not a surprise to see some land their way.
AlfieFever asks: How much of the Leafs’ current struggles are due to DJ Smith leaving in the offseason?
None.
Rice asks: How many trades will PD make? Over/under set at 4 this season.
Assuming we set the over/under at 3.5, I’ll take the over. There are so many guys on the roster who should be available for picks at the deadline, that anything less would be to leave value on the table. If the team keeps playing well, demand for Senators players will be there come February, the draft, and beyond.
JesseJames asks: What do you see happening with Pageau? Does he sign back with us or do we deal him? What do you see us getting in a trade if we deal him?
Based on his play to start this season, I don’t see any option that makes sense other than dealing him. Some team will see the goal totals and overpay for his services, and the Senators need to be ready to jump at that opportunity.
Signing a guy who will be on the wrong side of 30 by the time this group contends to an inflated contract isn’t good business for a rebuilding team. My hunch is that there will be a first round pick or highly touted prospect available on the market in any Pageau deal. Given how hot he's been to start the year, a potential Pageau deal could shape the rebuild in a material way.
Sensnation: Would the Sens ever go after Matthew Tkachuk and have an amazing offensive line? It’s a fun thought, but the cost would almost certainly be prohibitive. There’s no indication that Calgary is ready or willing to move on from Tkachuk.
Richard asks: Who and how many of Duclair, Brown, Pageau, Namestnikov, and Ennis do the Senators re-sign moving forward?
My hunch is that Duclair and Brown re-sign, with the others going unsigned or being moved.
Scott asks: Any chance the Sens will deal Anderson to Toronto? I want to see an Andersen/Anderson tandem?
Unless Anderson wants to move, I don’t see any chance that the Senators pull the trigger.
John asks: Is Bobby Ryan stressed and burnt out about his situation? If so, how does long-term disability come into play with NHL players? How does this affect the team with player numbers and salaries?
I don’t want to speculate on Bobby Ryan’s situation, but will say that I wish him the absolute best as he participates in the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program. The program, which is completely confidential, is not part of the LTIR rules.
Rob asks: Who do you think the Senators will lock up to a long-term contract next after Chabot and White?
Alexis Lafreniere? Just kidding.
I’m not expecting anything in the eight-year range like we saw with Chabot, but I do think Duclair is playing his way into a three or four-year extension relatively quickly.
SportsGuy67 asks: Should Ottawa fans be concerned about the recent hot streak? What does this mean for the rebuild? What should they do?
No, I don’t think there’s any reason to be concerned. Even with the recent “hot… streak, it’s not like they’re sitting near the top of the league. This is a group that sits 26th overall after everything has gone right.
Even if they don’t win the lottery, the Sens are going to get a really good player or two next June. The key now is to stay the course – if the plan at the start of the year was to move guys like Pageau, Tierney, DeMelo, and others for picks, that’s what has to happen. A little stretch of wins shouldn’t change a thing.
Sensnation asks: I feel we are competitive enough to make the playoffs. Should the Sens give it a shot or tank?
They aren’t competitive enough. Stick with the original plan.
New Arena asks: What cap do you think Pageau will sign for?
My expectation is that he ends up with a deal in the $5M - $7M range on July 1 next summer, depending on how crazy things get.
Michael asks: If the Sens play themselves out of the bottom three in the draft, how will it affect their rebuild if they pick in the 6-15 range? Is there enough high-end talent to add the pieces they need?
Yes, I think so. This is widely regarded as a deep draft, and the Senators are going to get at least two chances in that first round. There are plenty of guys picked outside the top three in any given year that go on to have incredibly impactful NHL careers. There’s no reason to think that the Senators can’t pick up one or two or those guys if they fall outside the top three. It wasn’t all that long ago that the Sens took Erik Karlsson at 15 – I’d wager that Pierre Dorion would be just fine with a player of that quality coming out of this draft.
Carlos asks: To tank or not to tank? That is the question. With the current hot streak, if they can keep up the pace and possibly squeak into a wild card spot (or better?), should we keep this team intact or trade assets for the sake of the rebuild?
Stick to the plan. Making the playoffs isn’t the goal. Building a perennial Stanley Cup contender is the goal. The odds of this group being able to compete for a playoff spot are small to begin with, but even if they could squeak in, the benefits of a quick first-round exit are drastically outweighed by the benefits of getting the rebuild done right.
Rob asks: With the success of young players, does it make sense to pay a guy $12M plus? Wouldn’t you want your third line players making $3M instead of thrusting journeymen into your lineup because you blew your cap space on a few superstars?
I tend to agree with your line of thinking. Hockey isn't like basketball, where one player can singlehandedly control an entire game. There's too much time spent without Player X on the ice for that to happen.
The Tampa Bay Lightning got things right by convincing everyone to buy in, signing for less than they would have got on the open market. It’s allowed them to keep the band together with minimal cap casualties. It’s allowed them to have players like Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn play supporting, middle-six roles effectively.
What’s more important regardless of approach, though, is the integration of young players. With a hard salary cap in place, the ability of a team to successfully integrate contributing players on entry-level deals is often the difference between competitiveness and golfing in April. Fishboi asks: Sid Seixeiro recently said that Ottawa is going to fall on its face soon. Do you agree with that, or do you think they’ll stay in the 20th range?
What do you define as falling on their face? I think they’ve shown enough so far this year to prove that they aren’t just going to roll over. Do I expect them to lose a few more games? Sure. But do I expect them to embarrass themselves every night? No chance. This is a hard-working group that plays an entertaining brand of hockey. Whether they win or lose, playing like that will stop them from ever “falling on their faces.… Finishing closer to 31st than 20th doesn't mean that they've fallen on their face at all. If they keep working hard and playing fun hockey, fans will be fine with the result whether it's a win or a loss.
Alex asks: With acquisitions like Duclair and Namestnikov (to a lesser extent), could the Sens be a little further along in their rebuild as originally anticipated? There's no way anyone could have predicted how well these players have played so far and how much of impact they've had.
Almost certainly. Like you said, nobody could have expected that Anthony Duclair would come in and do what he’s done. I don’t know that I see Namestnikov as a long-term, post-rebuild piece for this group, but Duclair looks like he might be one. He’s on a 30+ goal pace, and is showing off confidence and creativity on a nightly basis. Any time you pick up a guy like that, especially one who is only 24 years old, you’ve helped the rebuild cause significantly.
Tommy G asks: What do you think Logan Brown’s point totals will be for the season?
Bold Prediction: 40 Points. His underlying numbers are strong enough to have me absolutely convinced that there’s a big breakout coming. He's been so, so good since getting called up. As he gets more comfortable at the NHL level, I’m expecting to see more in the way of production.
--
Thanks to everyone who submitted questions to the November mailbag!
As always, thanks for reading.