The Tampa Bay Lightning’s race against the Boston Bruins for the top record in the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference has relatively low stakes. The Lightning easily qualified for the postseason, and they are simply finishing out the rest of the regular season while hoping to stay healthy and remain sharp in their play. Home-ice advantage is meaningless. However, while not a requisite, every team ideally wants to go down the stretch playing consistent hockey. This has not been true of the Lightning over the last three games. The main reason for this is the slip in play of two of their most important players.
The Lightning have not scored an even-strength goal since J.T. Miller converted on Steven Stamkos’s pass on the odd-man rush against the Islanders last Thursday. One reason is the virtual disappearance of Yanni Gourde. He has six shot attempts in his last three games. For perspective, the Arizona Coyotes’ Clayton Keller, who was electric against Tampa Bay last night, produced seven attempts on his own. Gourde’s impact cannot be overstated. He propels the Lightning’s offense with his speed and effort. To the shock of many pundits, he is fourth on the Lightning in goals and points.
Gourde has seemed sluggish in the last few games, which affects not only his vaunted retrievals, but also his ability to push back the defense on the rush. In his own zone, if he is slow to rotate and loses battles in the corners, he is exploitable. He becomes a forward version of Braydon Coburn. The game-winner for the Devils by Kyle Palmieri in Saturday’s contest highlighted that fact.
It should not be forgotten, that despite his age (26), Gourde is a rookie. And for any rookie, the NHL season is a taxing grind unlike anything he has experienced in his career. Just like the Lightning are exercising caution in Steven Stamkos’s return from a day-to-day injury, Tampa Bay would be wise to let Gourde have a breather before the postseason. That way he will have fresh legs. The versatility to play high pace, or slow it down and cycle, is one of Tampa Bay’s best attributes. But if Gourde’s energy is sapped and he is ineffective, the Lightning’s even-strength scoring is sapped.
Another area of concern is Ryan McDonagh. Over the last three games, McDonagh has been a -11 in terms of Shots For/Against while he is on ice at 5v5. That is bad! Last night, the Lightning were guilty of committing turnovers near the blue line in the offensive zone that led to counterattack chances. But McDonagh was not part of that sloppiness. His problems stem from slow retrievals and lack of success exiting the zone. Part of it is that he is often paired with Dan Girardi, who is prone to being hemmed in his own end due to his lack of mobility and poor decision-making.
Since Girardi is a liability, McDonagh needs to be much quicker with his own decision-making once he goes back to fetch the puck. Too often McDonagh gets trapped by the forecheck, or he feeds the puck to an outlet that has an opponent draped over him. McDonagh has mobility, and he needs to try to use his skating to evade the forecheck, especially if his passing targets are blanketed. Victor Hedman is excellent at using his mobility to free himself of the first-man pressure and that opens up space for the Lightning’s forwards. If that is failing, McDonagh needs to try to use the area pass with his forwards as a breakout. Too often, McDonagh is left scrambling behind the goal line after his shovel of the puck up the boards goes awry.
The Lightning have been one of the best teams in the NHL all season, so perspective is important. With the remaining games insignificant, it is natural for attention to detail to flag. But bad turnovers and inconsistency are different than Gourde’s battery hitting empty and McDonagh’s prevailing troubles in his own zone. The Lightning have a half dozen games to work out the kinks and rest their forwards. One thing that will need to transfer to the postseason is their top-six forwards scoring and top-four defensemen moving the puck quickly. The clock is ticking.