Well it finally happened. The Colorado Avalanche fulfilled Matt Duchene’s trade request and moved the star center/winger to the Ottawa Senators. The surprise obviously wasn’t the fact that Duchene was moved, but that it involved three teams and that Colorado did well with the return. Give credit where it is due. Joe Sakic’s patience was rewarded. He was able to land a bevy of assets for a player that was clearly on the way out.
Remember when people were trying to convince us that Taylor Hall was the price for an average defenseman? When you look at what Sakic got for Duchene and compare it to what Peter Chiarelli got for Taylor Hall it is tough not to laugh.
So here’s what the trade looked like for Colorado, Ottawa, and Nashville. From Kevin Allen of USA Today:
The Predators acquired center Kyle Turris from the Ottawa Senators in a three-team, multiple player deal that sends Matt Duchene to the Senators, and Samuel Girard and Vladislav Kamenev (both from Nashville) and Shane Bowers and Andrew Hammond (both from Ottawa) to the Avalanche, along with first- and third-round picks from Ottawa and a second-round pick from Nashville.
So what kind of impact does this have on the Penguins? The Senators were in the Eastern Conference Finals last year and they are the ones that got the best player in the trade. I do think Matt Duchene is better than Kyle Turris, but I’m not sure it is by as much as people think
First off, I would like to say that you have to take team effects into play here. Colorado has been historically bad for a good chunk of this sample. I am concerned about how much of that bleeds into individual analysis when the team success or failure is as extreme as it was in Denver. There’s a good chance that Duchene’s underlying numbers improve now that he is in a different situation. So even if that happens we are still looking at a mild upgrade for the Senators. I don’t think this is going to move the needle as much as some think for the 2017-18 season. Where the deal makes sense for Ottawa is that Duchene has another year left on his deal and Turris was a pending UFA that was probably going to sign elsewhere. Ultimately, I don’t think this trade moves the needle much for Ottawa and doesn’t improve their overall odds in getting through the Eastern Conference that much.
Usually it is the teams in your own conference you have to worry about more when trades are made. This is an exception because of Pittsburgh’s unique situation. It’s not the Senators that the Penguins have to worry about as much as it is the Predators and potential Stanley Cup Final rematch. The Predators gave up some good futures, but they are a win now team that had center depth issues last year. Since then they have signed Nick Bonino and acquired Kyle Turris. This is a big upgrade over what they had last season. Bonino’s contract won’t ever be confused with having great value, but now that he can properly slot back into a third line center role the odds of Nashville getting production out of him increases. Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris is a pretty solid one-two combination up front for the Predators. When you add Nashville’s ability to move the puck from the back end it creates quite a potent attack. Kyle Turris has already signed a six-year extension with Nashville worth 6M per season. The Predators are in a win now window and Turris will be a productive player for them throughout that window. That back end of the contract has risk because of age regression, but they’ll deal with that when the time comes.
David Poile deserves a lot of credit for bringing in Ryan Johansen, PK Subban, and Kyle Turris which have solidified them as one of the league’s best teams.
Ultimately, this trade probably doesn’t impact the Penguins much at all. The odds of Pittsburgh playing Ottawa or Nashville in the playoffs isn’t high because of the division setup and the small probability of the same two teams making the final in back to back years. The real threat to the Penguins will be when Peter Chiarelli makes another panic trade and sends Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a contender in the Eastern Conference for a mediocre defenseman.
Thanks for reading!