With next to nothing happening in the hockey world this month, I thought this would be as good of a time as any to profile members of the Calgary Flames.
I'll be commenting on their performances last season as well as projected role and expectations moving forward. I've profiled 13 Flames thus far, with Matthew Tkachuk being the most recent.
Today we're going to take a closer look at Milan Lucic.
Counting stats: 79 games played, 20 points (six goals, 14 assists), 13:14 average time on ice
5v5 underlyings: 0.97 points/60, +3.51 CF% Rel, -0.31 GF% Rel, +2.15 xGF% Rel, 0.990 PDO
2018-19 review: Lucic's season was definitely a failure considering the dough he's making. The circumstances are irrelevant. If you're pulling in $6 million – and the 44th highest paid forward in the league – you need to produce. Lucic didn't. It's as simple as that. His counting totals were bad and somehow the efficiency numbers were even worse. He averaged just .97 points/60 at 5v5, which is horrendous. That ranked him 243rd among 252 forwards to log at least 800 minutes in that game state. Chris Wagner, Luke Glendening, and Ryan Reaves are just a few of the many snipers to pile up points at a higher rate than Lucic. He was a black hole offensively.
It wasn't *all* bad, though. Lucic made a fairly strong impact on the team's possession and expected goals numbers. A lot of that came from his defensive prowess. The Oilers allowed 5.3 fewer shot attempts and .70 fewer goals per 60 minutes (5v5) with Lucic on the ice. Both totals were among the best on the team.
Some value hits. Some don't. But it's worth noting Lucic was still very physical, ranking 7th in the NHL with 259 (3.27 per game).
Fun fact: Lucic posted a 50.72 Corsi For%, which marked the 12th consecutive season he has finished above 50%. A remarkable streak.
2019-20 outlook: Perennially a 50+ point player, Lucic has mustered up just 54 over the last two seasons combined. His rate numbers are also way down when it comes to shot attempts and scoring chances. Suffice to say, his offensive game has fallen off a cliff over the last couple of years. I'm not sure I'd bet on a big bounce back now that he's on the wrong side of 30.
With that said, he is still a solid defensive player and I think he could be a useful player in the bottom-6. It sounds like the plan is to start him opposite side Sam Bennett on what would be a very physical 3rd line. I'm not sure it'd have enough offensive juice, though, so I could see him moving down to the 4th unit in time – especially if Andrew Mangiapane continues to create offense the way he did during the 2nd half of last season or the team feels Dillon Dube is ready to make an impact.
I think Lucic will be trusted in important defensive situations and be relied upon to provide edge and energy the Flames felt they were lacking. If he can somehow pot 10-15 goals along the way, the team would probably be quite content. Would a season like that provide $5.25M worth of value? No, but a season like that would provide more value than James Neal did last year and that's the bet GM Brad Treliving and co. are making.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com and hockey-reference.com Recent posts: