Toronto Maple Leafs to Name John Chayka GM and Mats Sundin VP: Why the Risk is Worth the Reward

Multiple reports now indicate that the Toronto Maple Leafs will make a major announcement tomorrow, just one day ahead of the NHL Draft Lottery. Mats Sundin and John Chayka are expected to head up the team’s new executive leadership structure. Sundin will reportedly enter the role of Vice President of Hockey Operations, while Chayka is expected to be named the 19th General Manager in franchise history. This new group comes with its pros and its cons, leaving the fanbase predictably divided.

While some consider the hiring of Sundin and Chayka a reckless decision that will set the franchise back, others feel the abandonment of the "Old Hockey Man" strategy is a massive positive. I personally see both sides of the argument and completely understand both the hesitation and the excitement. Everyone should weigh this move carefully. With that said, I will openly admit that my track record in evaluating previous Maple Leafs regimes is a mixed bag.

The Era of Lamoriello, Dubas, and Treliving

When the Maple Leafs hired Lou Lamoriello, I had a mixed reaction. While I appreciated the stability he provided the franchise, I felt some of his rules and policies were outdated. Despite limited success, the team was plagued by bad contracts that outlived Lou’s tenure in Toronto and while Lou also left having upset some of the team’s top young talent. My skepticism there was on point.

When the Leafs transitioned away from Lou, naming Kyle Dubas the 17th General Manager, I was opposed to the decision. I felt his lack of experience and willingness to deviate from the team’s established structure was a major mistake, one that ultimately cost the franchise five or more years with only two playoff series victories. The Dubas Era was mired by bad contracts that relied on the NHL salary cap ballooning to offset the damage, all while other organizations successfully signed their players to team-friendly deals. Dubas himself admitted upon his departure that he alone was responsible for the John Tavares contract, which ultimately set every cap issue in motion.

When the Leafs hired Brad Treliving as Dubas's replacement, I was uncharacteristically positive. I assumed he had learned from his mistakes in Calgary and from the Matthew Tkachuk situation. I could not have been more wrong. Instead of learning from that situation, Treliving walked Mitch Marner through the exact same process, ultimately costing the franchise any chance of acquiring major assets in return.

John Chayka’s Arizona Coyotes History: Context Matters

So now the Leafs transition to John Chayka as the team’s General Manager, and I approach the situation with a level of cautious optimism. Many look at Chayka’s immediate history and wonder why anyone would be excited about this hire. I understand that perspective. However, while I am willing to hear other viewpoints, I want you to hear mine.

To understand my allure to Chayka, you have to look at the situation he was thrust into in Phoenix when he was hired. Chayka was 26 years old, fresh off starting his own data company, and looking to get his foot in the door with an NHL organization. Unfortunately for Chayka, over his four-year tenure, the Coyotes changed ownership three times. Alex Meruelo ultimately took over, leading to Chayka’s contentious departure.

While many view the situation that led to Chayka’s firing as a major red flag, I view it differently. The facts of the case are undisputed. At the time, Meruelo granted Chayka permission to interview for another role, but grew annoyed when the process dragged on into the NHL’s Bubble relaunch. It was only then that Meruelo took issue with Chayka exploring opportunities with other organizations. It has also been reported that the prospective role was outside of a traditional General Manager position and not anything that could be considered a direct conflict of interest.

In Chayka’s defense, Meruelo turned out to be the downfall of the franchise, ultimately leading to its relocation from Arizona to Utah. Meruelo’s tenure was shrouded in controversy and scandal before the NHL finally forced his hand. It has been widely reported throughout the media that Chayka saw the writing on the wall and did what was best for himself. That is exactly what anyone should do in their professional career when presented with those sorts of toxic challenges.

Drafting with Data: Chayka’s Hidden Advantage

Next comes Chayka’s drafting history, a factor that I feel sets him apart from many other candidates in the league. During his tenure in Arizona, Chayka was forced to operate under severe financial constraints every year. The budget was so tight that the team transitioned to a digital scouting model, relying heavily on video to evaluate talent.

The lack of financial resources committed to scouting and development would be problematic for most executives. However, Chayka made 32 picks as General Manager of the Coyotes, and 16 of those players went on to play at least one NHL game.

While a 50% hit rate might not seem earth-shattering, the league average for players to play a game after being drafted is approximately 44%. That means with extremely limited resources at his disposal, Chayka was 6% better than the league average. That number could drastically increase if his data-driven drafting style is paired with one of the league’s most heavily invested scouting departments in Toronto. Through his tenure, Chayka is responsible for drafting Clayton Keller, Jakob Chychrun, Matias Maccelli, Kevin Bahl, and Barrett Hayton, among others.

Pairing the data-driven models that Chayka has access to with the elite scouting resources of the Toronto Maple Leafs might be the single biggest opportunity for this franchise.

Trades and LTIR: Weaponizing the Salary Cap

As GM of the Coyotes, you have to examine the unique situation the front office was navigating. The Coyotes were not viewed as a credible NHL franchise by many players. They were listed on most no-trade or no-movement clauses, making player acquisition incredibly difficult. Teams around the league were also aware of this dynamic. They knew that when Arizona wanted a player who did not have trade protection, they could extort excess value in any deal, a reality that was obvious in the Taylor Hall and Derek Stepan acquisitions.

Chayka, however, showed a significant amount of skill navigating this minefield. In 2016, he weaponized his LTIR space by acquiring Pavel Datsyuk’s contract in exchange for a second-round pick and moving up four spots in the draft. This allowed him to select Jakob Chychrun, marking one of his best moves. Chayka also managed to acquire Darcy Kuemper, who ultimately became a top-tier NHL goaltender, for Scott Wedgewood and Tobias Rieder.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the acquisitions of Stepan and Hall, while not categorical failures, ultimately cost significant draft capital. While Chayka was the driving force behind the Stepan trade, he reportedly did not want to acquire Hall, preferring a value addition like Tyler Toffoli instead. Meruelo's overstepping ultimately forced the Hall acquisition.

Throughout his career, Chayka has shown he does not hesitate to make moves when his team needs them. Unlike Treliving, Chayka isn’t just working the phones with a lack of urgency. When he makes a call, it is because he is looking to get a deal done, not just gauging the market. This sense of urgency is a major factor in my belief in Chayka.

Free Agency and Financial Constraints

This is where Chayka’s report card shows an incomplete grade, simply because during his time in Arizona, he wasn’t playing poker with the same set of cards as everyone else. While other General Managers had the ability to flaunt what their franchise could offer, Arizona had very little appeal. They often resorted to picking through the remaining free agents in the market once other teams finished their shopping. The Coyotes were left diving in the bargain bin to try and finalize their roster.

These failures were exacerbated by multiple ownership groups failing to commit actual funds to the hockey team, preferring to spend their money elsewhere. The biggest challenge, however, was the organization's unwillingness to spend near the salary cap, relying instead on LTIR deals to artificially mimic actual cap spending.

The Draft Combine Scandal: Overblown Controversy?

Lastly, there is the issue of the Coyotes and Chayka being fined multiple draft picks for what the league referred to as their "Draft Combine Scandal." This was a situation ultimately overblown by the NHL in an attempt to force Meruelo out of ownership less than two years into his tenure. Many felt this punishment, which led to the Coyotes losing both a second and first-round pick in consecutive drafts, was an abuse of power and the absolute kiss of death for the franchise.

While some see the validity of the punishment, the truth of the matter is this: the franchise simply asked players to attend meetings in gym clothing so they could evaluate body composition and speak to the players about fitness and nutrition. The Coyotes didn’t receive a tangible competitive advantage from this over any other team. Instead, they were used by the league to set an example. Comparatively, both the New Jersey Devils and Ottawa Senators forfeited picks taken by the NHL but ultimately had them returned for infractions that arguably impacted competitive balance much more.

A Forward-Thinking Future for the Maple Leafs

I always want a General Manager who is forward-thinking and looking to develop a competitive advantage over the rest of the league. Naturally, I do not want to see my team forfeit draft picks, but while other executives have been given second and third chances for far worse offenses, Chayka has sat idly by, successfully running his own business.

He is a man returning to the NHL with a massive chip on his shoulder, looking to make a major impact in his return to the game.

To me, that is exactly the sort of person I want at the helm. The Toronto Maple Leafs do not need someone entrenched in the old system. They need someone eager to reinvent the wheel, leverage Toronto's massive financial and scouting resources, and prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he belongs in this league.