You can tell a trade rumor has real legs when multiple scenarios start popping up as you talk to other GMs and people around the NHL about what they're hearing involving the deal…
This one even comes with some good old-fashioned drama. Let’s start without the passive-aggressive stuff…These teams are not exactly pals. An assistant GM who knows the parties involved was quick to point out the dreaded offer sheets the Blues gave to then-Oilers prospects Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg.
Did Armstrong cross that imaginary line that GMs used to say they honored as part of a gentleman's agreement not to do such a thing? I don’t think it matters nearly as much as it once did, but there were a lot of people in Edmonton who felt that losing those two players may have cost them a Stanley Cup in the rematch against Florida. So if you follow that line of thought, the Oilers aren’t exactly eager to make St. Louis any better than they already are…In all seriousness, I don’t think that stuff ultimately matters here. This deal is about one thing:A Stanley Cup–winning goalie going to the two-time runner-up Edmonton Oilers.
One player I’ve heard mentioned a lot is Edmonton’s Isaac Howard. The scouting report on Howard is that he thinks he’s already better than he is in the NHL and needs to focus on the basics. There’s no question he has a killer shot, but so far at the NHL level it’s all looked like potential. He looks kind of lost out there. And the problem with Howard is the money. He doesn’t make enough of it to bridge the gap between Binnington’s salary and Skinner’s salary—which is now $3.4M less than Binnington is making.
So Edmonton is going to have to give up something they really don’t want to part with: a player making around $3 million in salary. Looking at their roster, the best “throw-in” from Edmonton might have to be defenseman Brett Kulak. That gets you $2.75M closer…
Scenario 1 — Core Pieces
To St. Louis:
Stuart Skinner (G) — $2.6M cap hit, UFA after 2024-25
Brett Kulak (D) — $2.75M cap hit, no-trade protection
To Edmonton:
Jordan Binnington (G) — $6M cap hit, 1 year remaining after this season
Why do this if you’re the Blues?
They get a younger goalie (Skinner, 26 vs. Binnington, 32) to pair with future #1 Joel Hofer… they clear significant cap space ($3.4M in immediate relief)…
and they get a defenseman who can step right into their lineup in Kulak.
Cap mechanics:Outgoing Oilers cap:
Skinner ($2.6M) + Kulak ($2.75M) = $5.35
Incoming cap: Binnington ($6M)
Net difference: Oilers still over by $650K
Why do this if you’re the Oilers?
Connor McDavid is pushing — and the fact that he never pushes makes this even more meaningful. Some people I’ve talked to say it’s about time he did something like this, but in my opinion, he’s playing his cards at exactly the right moment. There are still major questions about whether even this move makes Edmonton good enough to get back to the Stanley Cup Final — but those same questions existed last year, and they answered the bell.I usually just report what I’m hearing and don’t go out on a limb about whether something is definitely going to happen… but this one makes too much sense. I think this gets done, and it’s going to make the playoffs incredibly interesting in the West