Payday or Bargain? Projecting Nick Robertson's Arbitration Award
In the coming week, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Nick Robertson are scheduled to go before an arbitrator to determine the forward's next contract. The arbitration date is set for August 3rd, unless both parties can reach a mutual agreement on a new deal beforehand. Currently, there have been no reports suggesting the two sides are close to a contract.
Nick Robertson -> August 3rd https://t.co/rOrmzV42dV
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Last season, Robertson played 69 games for the Leafs, scoring 15 goals and adding 7 assists. Struggling to gain the trust of his Head Coach, he averaged only 12 minutes of ice time per game. Robertson managed to crack the Leafs’ playoff lineup just three times, despite the team's scoring struggles.
Ahead of the arbitration hearing, both the Maple Leafs and Robertson will submit their desired cap hits. As is typical, the two parties will likely submit figures at opposite ends of the spectrum, hoping to influence the decision. It is expected that the Leafs' desired contract will be around $1.25 million per year, while Robertson's camp will likely ask for closer to $3 million per season.
According to Cap Wages, the projected arbitration award for Robertson is $1,556,650 on a two-year deal. The site uses the previous contracts of players like Joel Armia, Sonny Milano, Richard Panik, Danton Heinen, and Michael Bunting as comparable.
While I speculated earlier this summer that the Leafs would look to move on from Robertson, if the arbitration award lands around the $1.5 million mark, it would make sense for the team to try and rebuild his value. Alternatively, this cost certainty could be the key to facilitating a trade. For a team seeking a young, controllable scoring winger, knowing the exact contract price might be the final piece needed to get a deal done.
It may be difficult for Toronto to find consistent playing time for Robertson, especially with their newfound forward depth. The team must ask itself: is Nick Robertson a potential internal solution to offset some of the offense that could be lost from Mitch Marner? Or is the best course of action a fresh start for the young forward?