Ducks

Western Conference Playoff Predictions: Round 1

Apr 15, 2014 • 7:12 am

The 2014 NHL playoffs begin tomorrow and yesterday I posted my Eastern Conference predictions, so today I'll do the same for the Western Conference.

There are a lot of good teams out West so it's tough to predict exactly how it'll all play out, but here are my picks:

Dallas Stars (WC2) at Anaheim Ducks

Prediction: Ducks in 6

Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are one of the best duos in the league and Kari Lehtonen is the kind of goaltender that can steal a series, but I like the Ducks in this one. They're the highest scoring team in the league and with Jonas Hiller, Frederik Andersen and John Gibson all playing well, they should be fine in goal no matter who's between the pipes. I don't think the Stars defense is good enough to shut down Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, either.

X-Factor: Kari Lehtonen. The Stars can score goals, but at times they struggle to prevent them. If Lehtonen is on his A game and keeps Dallas in games, they should be able to get him enough support for some wins.

Minnesota Wild (WC1) at Colorado Avalanche

Prediction: Wild in 7

I'm not the biggest Wild supporter, but I don't think the Avalanche are near as good as their record indicates. They're a poor possession team, and they're tied for last with Montreal in scoring chance for% among playoff teams. I like their crop of forwards, but I'm not crazy about their defense and without Matt Duchene they're not as good as they could be. I think they slip by the Avs in a very close series.

X-Factor: Minnesota's young guns. If Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter, Jonas Brodin and Mikael Granlund (if he ever gets back) can step up and produce, they should win the series. Zach Parise and Ryan Suter will need some help.

Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues Prediction: Blackhawks in 6

I'm not crazy about St. Louis at all. Ryan Miller has actually been somewhat shaky with the Blues, and they've been trending downward through the home stretch. They've lost six in a row entering the playoffs and, though they'll have home ice, I don't like their chances in this series. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are healthy and ready to go, and they join a team that was actually doing OK without them. The Blackhawks are an excellent puck possession team, and they have the best scoring chance for% among all playoff teams. Chicago wins the series in six games on home ice.

X-Factor: Ryan Miller. The Blues are heading in the wrong direction, and I don't see them winning this series unless Miller stands on his head.

Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks Prediction: Kings in 7

This is probably the toughest series for me to predict, but I'm going to go with the Kings in what should be a physical, up-tempo series. The Sharks are getting Tomas Hertl back, but I like the Kings defense better, and their dominance in puck possession always seems to get them wins in the playoffs. With Marian Gaborik in the lineup, they have more scoring punch than they did, and that could very well be the difference.

X-Factor: Tomas Hertl. He's returning from a long-term injury. How effective can he be? If he's the Hertl we saw early in the season, he could be a difference maker.

For those wondering what I was referring to with the scoring chance for% numbers, I graphed them for you.