Calgary.
Should they be taken lightly? No, they shouldn't. Should they be treated like a team that’s in the top half of the Western playoff race? No, they shouldn't be treated as that either.
I’ll respect the Flames heart and world-class work ethic but I’m not going to pat them on the back for getting where they are based on unsustainable play. Maybe you want to ignore what advanced stats tell you so I won’t mention any, but let me ask you this:
Hands Up: Is Steven Stamkos one of, if not the, best goal scorer in the NHL?
Ok, keep your hands up.
Keep Hand Up If: You think that any of the following three players can sustain these numbers (two of which significantly better than Stamkos career %).
Jooris: 14/15 – 27.6% (Career – 1st Season) Hudler: 14/15 – 23.9% (Career – 14.8%) Wideman: 14/15 – 18.2% (Career – 6.5%)
Hands should be down now.
Those three players have combined for 29 of the Flames goals this season. If they actually shot their career %, and I’ll even give Jooris the amusement of keeping a ridiculous 27.6% as his “career…, the Flames would have scored 11 less goals this season.
If Jooris goes down to a more reasonable 14% the Flames score 15 goals less. Now they’re down a good chunk of goals and their record is most likely more in tune with the team Calgary actually ices on a daily basis. As a team, Calgary is shooting 11.7% right now compared to 9.19% last year and they haven’t added a bunch of snipers.
There’s no fancy advanced stats in there, just shooting percentages.
Their goaltenders are playing well, I can’t take that away from them. Hiller is doing what he’s done the previous three seasons with regards to save percentage and Ramo has a better save percentage than he has in previous years, so it won’t be a complete walk in the park for the Sharks offense to beat the Flames combined 91.3% save percentage.
I've tricked you; I did mention advanced stats. We just talked about PDO (Sh%+Sv%), and now we all agree that Calgary is performing above what they should be so you can hate advanced statistics a little less. You’re welcome.
Maybe the Flames can out-run the possession train but those shooting percentages are going to come back down to earth. Hopefully that starts tonight against the Sharks, if not it could be a frustrating night for team teal.
Keys to the Game:
No Wild Line Changes
Keep things rolling. I’m not saying don’t remove John Scott, because I’m more worried about the top three lines. Keep the lines that start the game together throughout the contest. Players operate better when chemistry is alive and well.
Don’t let me down, Todd. I’d rather you not make mistakes and the Sharks win.
High Percentage Shots/Get The Puck Through
I’ll re-use this one from the Boston game, but not for the same reason. The Sharks are going to have their fill of chances due to Calgary’s poor possession game. They can’t waste those chances by shooting aimlessly toward the net or into the shins of the Flames defenders.
Make the Flames goalie work for his paycheck and force him to stop scoring chances vs shots. Don’t try to shoot the puck through the equipment of the opposing player from the point. That leads to 2-on-1’s and other ugly plays. High% shots and through to the net.
Keep Dillon with Burns
Dillon is a sound defender and I like him more with each passing game. Regardless of who is in the lineup if Burns isn't going to play with Braun or Vlasic then he has to play with Dillon. It gives the Sharks the best option for a second defensive pairing.
Burns is still new to this whole playing in his own end thing again so he needs a babysitter. Dillon is that guy on the Sharks roster.
It should be an interesting game tonight. The Flames play with a lot of heart and hard work and are entertaining to watch. Giordano is a Norris candidate and Brodie isn't far behind so the Sharks are going to have to play smart in the offensive zone if they want results on the scoreboard.
San Jose needs to keep the good time train chugging if they want to climb into a playoff spot.
Puck drop is at 10:00pmET(7:00pmPDT)
Thanks for reading.